May 2020

Volume 46, Issue 4

Submissions

Can Tidal Energy Replace the Void Left by Coal Plants?

By Sanskriti Shindadkar, M4 Contributor

Canada has the unmatched raw potential to be the world leader in tidal energy. We have an abundance of water power, an availability of investors, and the need for renewable energy. That brings us to the billion-dollar question: What are we waiting for?

Before we dive in (no pun intended), let us go over a brief explanation of what tidal energy is. It’s a specialized type of hydropower, which takes energy from tides and converts it into a usable form. Tidal is a relatively novel form of renewable energy not yet widely used. It has great potential; the tides are vastly more predictable and reliable than both wind and solar energy and can thus help fill in the intermittent gaps they leave in energy production.

Tidal energy is the energy harvested by tidal plants from tidal currents in coastal areas, which convert the kinetic energy into electricity. There are three main types of tidal plants: tidal barrages, tidal fences, and tidal turbines. Tidal barrages are dams which use the change in height between low and high tides to compress air or turn turbines; they’re the most efficient way to generate electricity. Tidal fences are composed of underwater turbines similar to giant turnstiles, while tidal turbines are the underwater equivalent to wind turbines; for both plants, the water pushes the turbines, which are connected to generators, thus producing energy.

Just 190 tidal power plants on Canada’s coastline can make upwards of 42 000 MW per year; that’s two-thirds of Canada’s energy requirement in clean, renewable energy. That’s almost as much as what petroleum and natural gas combined provided in 2018

And this is just skimming the surface of what tidal energy can do for Canada! It can also strengthen our economy —according to a study commissioned by the Offshore Energy Research Association of Nova Scotia (OERA), by 2040, tidal energy can add $1.7 billion to N.S.’s economy and create 22 000 full-time jobs. That’s a valuable opportunity for a province with a population under 1 million.

A common argument against tidal energy is that the plants are expensive to build. This is mostly due to a lack of investments in research and development of appropriate technology. While the initial costs of tidal plants are high, the returns are still worth it. Tidal energy plants have four times the longevity of wind and solar farms (Husseini, 2018), which makes them more attractive for investors. Furthermore, once the plants are installed, operating and labor costs can be as low as 0.5% of initial capital costs (Farris, Helston, 2017). Compare this to wind farms, which have maintenance costs ranging from $42,000 to $48,000 per MW (Powergrid International, 2017) in the first 10 years of operation. For example, the Sihwa Tidal Power Station in South Korea produces electricity at only $0.02 per kW (Unwin, 2019).

Another concern is potential impacts on the environment. We don’t know everything about tidal energy, and there is no definite conclusive proof of whether or not it harms marine life or intertidal bays (MacDonald, 2018). However, there are newer reports which suggest the impacts are minimal. According to a report commissioned partly by the European Marine Energy Center (EMEC), with over 11 years of data at one site and 6 years of data at another, there were no significant changes in wildlife distribution patterns or numbers before and after installation (Navingo, 2017). There were slight declines in the populations of some wildlife when construction was started, but all populations returned to previous levels after the tidal energy plant commenced operation (Navingo, 2017). Additionally, because water has more kinetic energy than wind, the turbines can be much smaller, and thus interfere less with the environment(Conca, 2018). Overall, research conducted thus far tells us the construction of tidal energy plants is low-threat, especially compared to the impacts of other energy projects, such as offshore oil drilling (Skibba, 2018).

On top of it all, tidal is a clean, renewable, environmentally-friendly source of energy with virtually zero greenhouse gas emissions (Husseini, 2018). Circling back, can we expand the use of tidal energy alongside the transition from non-renewables? As of 2019, renewable energy only comprises about 17% of Canada’s primary energy needs (Government of Canada, 2020a), while 67% of Canada’s electricity is renewable (Government of Canada, 2020b); we still have a long way to go.

Canada has already announced regulations which will result in coal being phased out as early as 2030 - that’s ten years from now (Government of Canada, 2019c). Other non-renewables, such as fossil fuels, must reach the end of their eras if Canada is going to keep its commitment for net-zero emissions by 2050 (Arnold, Orweiler, 2020).

There’s no way of telling what sources of energy will take over the gaps left behind by non-renewables. But what we can say for sure is that if we don’t give tidal energy a chance, we’ll be letting a reliable, accessible, and economically-beneficial opportunity slip out of our grasp.

References

Arnold J., & Oliweiler, N (2020, Jan. 21). Getting to zero: Canada plans to hit net-zero emissions by 2050. What’s next? Canadian Institute for Climate Choices. Retrieved from https://climatechoices.ca/getting-to-zero-canada-plans-to-hit-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-whats-next/
CAPP. (2019). Canada’s Energy Mix. Retrieved from https://www.capp.ca/energy/canadas-energy-mix/
Conca. (2017, Jul. 27). Tidal Energy -- All Renewables Are Not Created Equal. Forbes. Retrieved from https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/07/27/tidal-energy-all-renewables-are-not-created-equal/#570382704f4e
Farris., A., & Helston, C. (2017, Feb.). Tidal Power: By the Numbers. Energy BC. Retrieved from http://www.energybc.ca/tidal.html#reading-position-17
Government of Canada (2020a, Apr. 3). Renewable energy facts. Natural Resources Canada. Retrieved from https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-and-data/data-and-analysis/energy-data-and-analysis/energy-facts/renewable-energy-facts/20069
Government of Canada. (2020b, Mar. 31). Electricity Facts. Natural Resources Canada. Retrieved from https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/science-data/data-analysis/energy-data-analysis/energy-facts/electricity-facts/20068
Government of Canada (2019c, Dec. 13). Coal phase-out: the Powering Past Coal Alliance. Canada.ca. Retrieved from https://www.canada.ca/en/services/environment/weather/climatechange/canada-international-action/coal-phase-out.html
Husseini, T (2018, Oct. 26). Riding the renewable wave: tidal energy advantages and disadvantages. Power Technology. Retrieved from https://www.power-technology.com/features/tidal-energy-advantages-and-disadvantages/
MacDonald, M. (2018. Jan. 17). Research needed into environmental impact of tidal energy. Canada’s National Observer.Retrieved from https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/01/17/news/research-needed-environmental-impact-tidal-energy-executive-director
Navingo. (2017, Jun. 13). Wave and tidal devices show minor effects on marine wildlife. Offshore Energy. Retrieved from https://www.offshore-energy.biz/wave-and-tidal-devices-show-minor-effects-on-marine-wildlife/
PMI Industries. (2016, Mar. 9). Making tidal energy more affordable. Retrieved from https://pmiind.com/making-tidal-energy-more-affordable/
Powergrid International. (2017, Nov. 8). As wind power fleet ages, more spending on maintenance predicted. Clarion. Retrieved from https://www.powergrid.com/2017/11/08/as-wind-power-fleet-ages-more-spending-on-maintenance-predicted/#gref
Province of Nova Scotia. (2016). Top 10 Things You Need to Know About Tidal Energy in Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia Department of Energy and Mines. Retrieved from https://energy.novascotia.ca/featured-stories/top-10-things-you-need-know-about-tidal-energy-nova-scotia
Skibba, T. (2018, Feb. 22). Measuring the Risks of Tidal Power. Hakai Magazine. Retrieved from https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/measuring-the-risks-of-tidal-power/
Unwin, J (2019, Mar. 21). Potential vs. expense: is tidal energy worth the cost?. Power Technology. Retrieved from https://www.power-technology.com/features/tidal-energy- cost/

Coronavirus and Climate Change: A Strange Duo

By Grace Ko, F2 Contributor

How is the world coping with climate change? Have governments forgotten about climate change because of Covid-19? The answer? It’s not what one might expect.

A report by the UN states, “The forecasted fall in carbon emissions is mirrored by decreases in levels of common air pollutants from car exhausts and fossil fuel energy, such as nitrous oxide (N2O) particles.” So, in short, air pollutants are going down… But, the report goes on to say, “Once the global economy begins to recover from the new coronavirus, WMO expects emissions to return to normal.” The report then gets arguably worse: “But these changes in carbon emissions, they haven’t had any impact on climate so far.”

Well, sure, maybe we’re not doing very well right now in reversing the effects, but can we change? Let’s read some articles together. Clark (2020) says “1. UK coal-free: Records have been broken as Britain goes without using coal power for 18 days and counting.” This could be attributed to coal-burning industries being shut down. However, according to this same source, “The pandemic has made the hard work of conservation harder, with projects across the board threatened or put on hold, from tackling invasive species like Himalayan balsam in the United Kingdom to the ongoing efforts to protect the snow leopard in Pakistan.” Yurdi (2020), a writer for GreenPeace, states: “Besides, even if industrial emissions have decreased, residential emissions [from houses and apartments] are on the rise due to the self-isolation measures needed to manage the pandemic.”

So on the whole, it seems that while CO2 emissions are going down during this pandemic because heavy emitters such as cars and airplane travel are not being used as much, our situation is not getting much better, and we must enact preventative measures. However, as this is a topic still up for debate, it would be advisable to do additional research—there are some sources linked below.

References

Clark, N. (29 April 2020). The Green Read: Will coronavirus help nature reclaim the Earth? Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/green-read-coronavirus-nature-reclaim-earth-200429062358033.html
Kurdi, L. (29 March 2020). COVID-19, Climate & Environment: the answers to your questions.Retrieved from https://www.greenpeace.org/canada/en/story/30174/covid-19-climate-environment-the-answers-to-your-questions/
The United Nations News (22 April 2020). Fall in COVID-linked carbon emissions won’t halt climate change - UN weather agency chief. Retrieved from https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062332
Additional Sources:https://globalnews.ca/video/6856189/earth-day-at-50-the-environmental-impact-of-covid-19
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200326-covid-19-the-impact-of-coronavirus-on-the-environment
https://environmentaldefence.ca/2020/05/01/answers-5-more-questions-covid-19-environment/

Columns

Work/Play: May

By Andrea Zhao, S6 Work/Play Columnist

Dear Reader,

“April is the cruellest month.” - T. S. Eliot

Although these fateful words were uttered—written, rather—nearly a century ago as the opening line to Eliot’s modernist epic, The Waste Land, they still ring as true as ever and perhaps serve to illuminate some inextinguishable truth about the fate of the world we live in.

(Now that I’ve gotten that bit out of the way: if anybody asks, please tell Mr. Cope that I’ve been doing lots of English work, just maybe not his English work. But I digress.

Eliot’s premonition still holds true even as we move into the second-last month of this school year (and for my fellow graduates, the second-last month of our high school career); Mayday, if it ever were to come, has well and truly descended upon us. A year which began with Australia burning down and the threat of a Third World War has now escalated into a rapidly spreading and dangerous global pandemic. We now find ourselves facing a shortage of supplies and food as we are forced to bunker down and shelter in place, with nothing to sustain us except Animal Crossing, Netflix, and the stack of long-overdue library books we’ll still claim, somehow, that we just never got around to reading.

Which brings me to some good news, on the social front at least, for all of you out there: even though you’re now forced to stay home, it seems to be business as usual between the awkward confrontations with your constantly disappointed family and the hangouts you won’t be having with your friends to enjoy what’s left of your youth. Let’s face it—if you’re still reading this column at this point in the year, you don’t have anybody to go out with anyways. Read on, then, you and I both know that this is the only thing you’ll even come close to finishing during this quarantine.

Work:

Bored? Unmotivated? Struck by a serious case of (early-onset) senioritis? Check, check, and check. Whatever was left of your questionable work ethic and fragile sense of motivation has surely evaporated during this quarantine; skipping class is easier than ever and your Nintendo Switch just looks so tempting from across the desk.

In order to try and actually make something out of this whole Google Meet Academy situation, it is absolutely paramount that you set up a designated study space for schoolwork and nothing else. Whether this means clearing off the mountain of junk from the desk you never use, or staking a claim on one corner of the kitchen table, having somewhere in your home where you know you’ll be going to learn will help you clear your mind and focus on the task at hand. Trust me. It’s science. And before you complain, you need all the help you can get.

In addition to the above, in order to escape from the positive feedback loop of procrastination and panic that you’ve definitely fallen into, you’ve got to have a method to keep track of your classes, meetings, homework, assessments, and important dates. A calendar and planner -- online or on paper, if your handwriting somehow allows for it -- serves well for this purpose. You need not be a scattered mess for the rest of your life. Who knows? You could finally get it together this quarantine period, once and for all.

Finally, In a rare moment of positivity, if you can call it that, I would like to remind you that help is out there if you need it. If you’re struggling with anything related to schoolwork or just the stress and loneliness that naturally come with dealing with a situation like this, reach out to your teachers, guidance counsellor, or Marleen or Ms. Wan in Student Services. They are there to listen to you, answer your questions, offer coping strategies, and help you plan out your life to reduce stress and get work done. You are not alone. Even if you technically are. Don’t suffer in silence. Or do whatever you want. I don’t particularly mind.

Play:

Imagine, for a second, if you had a fraction more talent and motivation than you actually do in real life. What would you make of this quarantine? Would you get back into an old hobby—yodeling, perhaps, or axe throwing -- or find some new passion?

Would you come out of this pandemic having mastered six new languages under the watchful, threatening gaze of Duo the Duolingo Owl, the green demon haunting your dreams? Would you be strong enough to lift the emotional burden of living through a massive global pandemic from all the workouts you’ve surely been doing?

Or perhaps you’re more of a musical type, having learned to play all of Chopin’s etudes on the recorder, or an artist bringing joy to your neighbourhood by decorating your neighbours’ houses in toilet paper? An avid reader who’s managed to get through all the books you merely Sparknotes-ed for English class? Or simply someone who’s been getting outside, watching the colours of the sky and admiring the way that everything is illuminated by the star at the centre of our solar system that will blow up and swallow us in a couple billion years?

The possibilities are endless! And the flow of time nearly so as well!

Now look at yourself. Go do those things anyways, even if you have neither talent nor motivation. Do thing is good. Does not matter what. You will be alright.

In another moment of optimism (what am I becoming? I know not.), know that it is fine to not be productive all the time. Living through these extraordinary (not the good kind of extraordinary) times is already difficult enough, and sometimes it’s all you can do to binge trashy shows on Netflix and order enough fast food to feed three people on Uber Eats. It’s fine, you know? It’s what I expected of you, anyways, so no matter what you do know that you’ve finally managed to not be a disappointment to someone in this world.

Talk to your family. Talk to your friends. Tell them you love them, because you’ll never work up the nerve to say it again. And then, as you await their reply, make sure to suffer in silence.

Goodbye, dear reader, until another time. I hope this column found you well, or at least that you’ve left it better than when you picked it up. Don’t come back here again.

Art for Work/Play

by Aayaan Singal, F1 Staff Artist

Quarantine Activities With Rapunzel

By Sadie Coelho, S6 Columnist

Ever since the quarantine began, I’ve heard many people liken our situation to that of Princess Rapunzel from the famous fairy tale, in which she is locked in a tower for her entire life, never to experience the wonders of the world. In the Disney version of her story, Tangled, the princess even comes from the kingdom of Corona––how ironic. If you’re familiar with the film, you’ll remember the opening musical number “When Will My Life Begin”, in which Rapunzel lists all the things she does in a day locked in her tower. She cleans, cooks, knits, reads, plays games, and more… it seems that every single day she has the time, energy, and somehow the resources to do a million different things.

Right now, it’s hard not to look at her and feel a little self-conscious about our own level of productivity. When the pandemic began, a lot of people, including myself, saw it as an opportunity to be productive. I thought I could finally finish all the personal projects I’d been putting aside, start a workout regimen, and get ahead on my summatives. I didn’t end up doing any of those things. At first, the idea that a fatal virus was rapidly spreading across the globe had a very negative impact on my mental health, but after a while, I began to feel guilty about my general lack of productivity and poor mental health. Rapunzel managed to stay positive while quarantined for eighteen years––I’m already going stir-crazy and it’s only been two months. Part of me feels like I’m weak or lazy or both for not pulling myself up by my bootstraps and getting to work. This certainly isn’t the case for everyone, but if you’re also struggling with a lack of work ethic, I want you to know that you’re not the only one. Sometimes the greatest comfort is the knowledge that others are in the same boat as you. And if you’re finding that you’re getting much more done than usual, that is something to be proud of—but for everyone else, I’d like to empathize with your situation.

I think the most important thing we have to remember is that it’s okay to not be positive all the time. I know you’ve probably heard that hundreds of times before, and as much as I’m sick of hearing TV commercials and email greetings tell me it’s an ‘unprecedented time’ and ‘we’re all in this together’, I have to admit that it’s true. We are all experiencing the same thing, and it’s something no one expected would come to pass in our lifetime. That, however, validates your frustration. Just like Rapunzel couldn’t help that she was locked away, what’s happening isn’t up to us. Really, the most you can do individually to change what’s happening is to stay home, and that isn’t easy for some people. What we do have to keep in mind right now, however, is our privilege. Many of us are lucky enough not to worry about our financial situations, access to electronics, or housing. With that in mind, it makes the struggle a little easier to bear, but that doesn’t mean you aren’t allowed to feel frustrated. Rapunzel may have survived 18 years in isolation, but it’s worth mentioning that she was, in the end, a fictional character. It’s not fair to compare ourselves to her, or anyone. Everyone deals with this in a different way, and no one really has the resources yet to figure out a one-size-fits-all solution. In the meantime, we can still take a page out of Rapunzel’s book––she certainly has a long list of activities to choose from if you’re feeling bored. But, if there are days when you can’t bring yourself to do anything at all, remember that that’s okay too.

The Great Depression - Debunking a Myth

By Vivek Sapru, M4 Politics Columnist

As Napoleon once put it, rather straightforwardly, “History is a set of lies that people have agreed upon.” When that quote is combined with Winston Churchill’s “History is written by the victors,” those striving to be informed citizens are faced with a series of historical conundrums, myths, and at times, outright lies. Modern-day politicians often rely upon historical allegories that have little basis in fact, using them in shows of chest-thumping bravado in favour of their political views and beliefs. As we teeter on the edge of the worst economic collapse in more than ninety years, it seems worthwhile to look back at one of the most deliberate, colossal, barefaced, and shameless examples of historical negationism in American history: The Great Depression.

Ask anyone, even hardcore Right-Wingers and you’ll discover a sort of grudging consensus regarding the Great Depression—from the very moment the Great Depression ended, nigh everyone was convinced that its cause was rooted in the depths of dastardly, unfettered laissez faire capitalism, the sort of rhetoric that makes Bernie Sanders and AOC smile. Yet what makes the Great Depression Myth so unique and unparalleled amongst US politics is that it receives broad consensus, across the political spectrum. Now, in today’s hyper-polarized era, the basic understanding of everything from tax rates to abortions to Presidential dogs (you read that right) is a victim of one’s political beliefs and biases. Thus, we must tackle the question: was capitalism truly behind the disaster that was the Great Depression?

There are a series of myths that must be examined to come to a fair conclusion. First amongst them is the role of Republican President Herbert Hoover during the preliminary years of the Depression. Hoover has been typecast as the typical laissez-faire, top hat-wearing, Mr. Monopoly/Mr. Peanut-esque capitalist. This depiction of his administration and its actions could not be further from the truth. The accepted notion of his actions in 1929 following the beginning of the Depression was that he gave the free market a free hand, which led to the stock market crash devolving into a catastrophic depression. This is an utter and complete lie. While the crash did morph into a Depression, it was not in spite of Hoover’s lack of action, but rather, because of his “big government” policy. Hoover, contrary to what is taught in educational institutions across the world, was somewhat of a skeptic of the free market, believing that while “competition forced…[lower] prices… [they] led to lower wages.” This nonsensical view of economics led to a consequential meeting with a number of big-name industrialists, including Henry Ford (Ford), Alfred Sloan (GM), and Pierre Dupont (Dupont Chemicals). In this meeting, he proposed numerous radical policy prescriptions: Firstly, despite the economic collapse, wages should be frozen and secondly, layoffs should be completely avoided via the usage of work-sharing (the reduction of shifts for workers). In exchange for corporate cooperation, Hoover managed to contain unions from striking and settled down in an attempt to wait out the crisis. Sadly, his “solution” didn’t work.

As the Depression continued, prices for consumer goods declined due to the Fed’s extremely tight monetary policy (more on this later), resulting in a lack of physical money to be spent by the populace. Furthermore, Hoover passed a disastrous tariff (the Smoot-Hawley Act) which increased American tariffs to the highest in a century. This, predictably, resulted in an equally harsh response by foreign nations, cutting American exports in half and devastating prices for American goods. As the quagmire continued, Hoover repeatedly prevented corporations from cutting wages until it was too late. By 1932, unemployment had reached 23% and Hoover was forced to react once again. Note, that never during the Depression did he simply “let the free market run.” Instead, in 1932 he embarked on an immense fiscal spending spree (only to be surpassed by FDR) raising the top tax bracket from 25% to 63% and investing in massive infrastructure projects, like his namesake Dam. In summary, Hoover did everything but let the economy recover naturally, and was clearly not a free market capitalist by any means.

Secondly, let us examine the role of Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve. I would be bold enough to state that the entire Great Depression was due to the action (or inaction) of the Federal Reserve. This is a concept that was first elucidated by the person I see as the greatest capitalist economist since Adam Smith himself, the Nobel Prize-winning Milton Friedman. He, in his magnum opus, concluded (after poring through yearly reports by the Fed for almost fifty years) that the fundamental issue of the whole matter was the money supply present in the economy. The Fed, in its hubris, allowed the entire American monetary supply to shrink by one third from 1929 to 1933, a colossal blunder. When the money supply of a nation is reduced, GDP itself will be reduced by a similar factor, as consumer spending and prices are dictated by the amount of money circulating in the economy. This led to deflation due to the impact on the economic variable ‘velocity’ (money supply multiplied by rate of turnover) and resulted in nominal GDP falling by a third. This deflation exacerbated the recession into a depression. One of the two primary powers of the Fed is its control over quantitative monetary policy, which wasn’t even used. Despite some outcry from more “competent” officials in smaller banking institutions, throughout the Depression the Fed stubbornly refused to intervene by increasing the money supply.

Note that the Fed had been established with the explicit purpose of protecting the banking system from closing but during the Depression, it itself shut down and declared a “banking holiday” (via direction from President Roosevelt). When more than 9000 American banks failed, the Fed continued to drag its feet and didn’t engage in purchases of Government bonds that could have supplied the banks with vital cash or provide “liquidity through loans” to prevent the fatal bank runs that crippled the American economic system. So why has the Fed escaped any serious reprimands for its actions? As Friedman himself put it, “The free market has no press agency….while the Government [and thus the Fed] have a great deal many press agencies! And the Fed would never admit that it was wrong…[after all] the hardest thing in the world for anyone to do is admit that they made a mistake...In a good year, you will read that the Fed, by its wise policy, by its efficacious management of policy, has produced this fine situation. However, let things get bad. Then, all of a sudden, the tone of the annual report is different! Then you discover that despite the best efforts of the Federal Reserve, outside forces combined to produce ‘difficulties’!”. The closest the Fed has gotten to a recognition of its folly was in 2002, when its Governor Ben Bernake proclaimed, “I would like to say to Milton...Regarding the Great Depression, you’re right. We did it. We’re very sorry”, on the date of Friedman’s 90th birthday. One would hope they’d be sorry!

The third, and perhaps most relevant myth in regards to modern politics is the efficacy of President Franklin Roosevelt and his infamous New Deal policy that he passed after winning the Presidency in 1933. Now, the New Deal has been revered by modern-day Democrats/Leftists as the closest America has ever come to their view of “socialism” and praised in academia as the panacea for the Great Depression. But don’t take just my word for its complete failure, why not ask Roosevelt’s Secretary of the Treasury, Henry Morgenthau, who famously stated, “We are spending more than...ever...before and it does not work...I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started...And an enormous debt to boot!”. Clearly then, there were some skeptics of the New Deal at the time. Looking at a timeline of the Great Depression, one can see that throughout the 1930s that after both Hoover and FDR’s big government Keynesian, interventionist economic policy, the unemployment rate did not once go below 10%. In fact, after more than two terms in office for FDR (he had 4 terms in total as the 22nd Amendment limiting Presidents to two terms had not yet been passed), the American unemployment rate had actually grown to a staggering 17.2% with a total of 9 million workers not having a job. The central piece of the New Deal was the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) which aimed to artificially raise prices and wages. Its intent was to satisfy businesses with higher profits while consumers would have a greater ability to spend. The fundamental issue with this is that the NIRA would raise the cost of labor as well, posing an enormous problem to corporations during an economic downturn. Furthermore, raising prices for businesses ensures that fewer people end up buying their products/services in the first place! FDR’s decision to follow Kenysian economic policies was doomed to fail from the get-go since injecting money into the economy to increase demand just causes prices to increase, resulting in a stagnation. Even for an amateur, this would seem insane to do during a depression, as marginal propensity to consume decreases, requiring the government to continue spending, resulting in inflation, giving no overall gain.

The rest of FDR’s word soup of policies were similarly useless. The National Recovery Administration reduced competition while his banking reforms devastated US Banks (as mentioned above). The Agricultural Adjustment Act raised food prices while destroying the livelihoods of farmers. There was widespread corruption as well; some Democratic cities and key states in election years received large sums of aid while others barely scraped by with little federal money.

So, what did end the Great Depression? Contrary to popular belief, it was not World War Two. As renowned economist Ludwig von Mises pointed out, "War prosperity is like the prosperity that an earthquake or a plague brings." After the War ended however, as free market capitalism and the private sector took over, the Depression finally ended, leading into the “American Golden Age” of the 50’s and 60’s. In total, government spending declined from 41% of national GDP to 15% post-war while tax rates were slashed and price controls lifted. Personal consumption grew by 12.4% while private investment surged by an astounding 28.6%! By 1946, as the largest decrease in government size occurred, the unemployment rate had dropped to less than 4%—and it stayed that way for the rest of the decade.

If there’s one conclusion to take from the story of the Great Depression, it can be summed up aptly by the “Great Communicator” himself, the 40th President of the United States, Ronald Reagan. Perhaps it’s worth considering, even in the 21st Century: “Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem!”

References

https://fee.org/articles/fdrs-folly-how-roosevelt-and-his-new-deal-prolonged-the-great-depression/https://mises.org/library/americas-great-depressionhttps://www.freedomworks.org/content/debunking-myths-great-depressionhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgyQsIGLt_whttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9HT4fQWtdghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfeHWnaK7rYhttps://www.forbes.com/2009/10/29/depression-recession-gdp-imf-milton-friedman-opinions-columnists-bruce-bartlett.html

Modelling Covid-19 In Terms of Mathematics

By Ethan Jeon, F1 Columnist

In the current situation of Covid-19, there are a lot of events happening simultaneously. Some of these include news coverage on new cases and total cases in a given country. However, there are many misconceptions that can arise from this kind of data, since these are specific pieces of data instead of a comprehensive overview. Even the talk about “flattening the curve” in several graphs can still be hard to understand and interpret what is actually going on in these graphs. In science, there are always imperfections and variables that we haven’t considered that affect the ongoing process of finding susceptible cases and further mitigating contact with other people. Mathematics is very closely related to science and we can model Covid-19 in terms of mathematics in different forms, most likely graphs. Mathematics is mostly based on logical facts, like data that give us definite answers which help us gain a better understanding of a certain situation.

When we as humans hear the phrase “exponential growth”, it can be quite hard to visualize because of the constant increase. For example, the number of arising cases each day tends to grow by a multiplicative factor of around 1.15. In fact, we can write out an equation using three variables, Nd for the number of people infected on a given day, E for the average number of people an infected person comes into contact with, and p for the probability that the exposure turns into an infection. ∆Nd=Nd×E×p, so Nd+1=Nd+ E×p×Nd=(1+E×p)(Nd), therefore moving d days means multiplying (1+E×p) by d times, ending with this equation, Nd=(1+E×p)dN0. If we were three days into the virus, the total number of cases would be the same growth rate multiplied 3 successive times by (1+E×p). Most graphs tend to show data on a linear scale, namely a linear scale for total cases on the y-axis. However, if we shift the linear scale into a logarithmic scale, it is much easier to overlook “exponential growth” and observe more quantitative data for a time versus total cases graph.

Of course, there will be certain variables that can change the data slightly, but this kind of equation gives us the bigger idea of the future of Covid-19. In fact, since each increase is multiplying by 10, while the data itself also multiplies by a certain constant, the curve becomes a line. Referring back to the original equation, E×p is one of the more sensitive parts thinking in long term since if we change it slightly, the result of (1+E×p)d would change drastically due to the exponent. Controlling the two variables is vital and it is possible through our daily activities. If we want to control E, we simply reduce the amount of exposure, which relates to social distancing. If we want to control p, we can simply take care of our hygiene, like washing hands or not touching our face, and reduce this probability.

As I mentioned earlier, humans have a hard time interpreting the phrase, “exponential growth”, just because the numbers get bigger and bigger each consecutive day. Reading news articles isn’t as important because it focuses more on daily data, which is hard to understand by itself if not looking at the bigger picture, but regarding where we are headed with the virus is significant. We are looking for flattening the curve or line, depending on which graphs we observe. It’s important to note that the curve will inevitably flatten due to two distinct real-life situations: either the whole population is infected and there will be no more new cases, which would be the worst-case scenario, or we as a community managed to keep Covid-19 under control, which would be the optimal scenario.

It is still hard to look at a graph when time is on the axis since we still see exponential growth, but we can’t predict what will happen over time. If we plotted a graph without time, but rather new cases and total cases, while having time as a slider (over time, the data changes), we would still be able to see the “exponential line'' where countries are headed towards. That way, if countries plummet down the “exponential line”, we can tell that they are making significant progress. With any kind of graph, there are certain ideas and benefits. The first idea about this new graph is that it contains logarithmic scales, which were used in the previous graph to further simplify “exponential growth’. The second idea about this graph is that it looks purely for trends, and not quantitative values. Thirdly, total cases are proportional to new cases, therefore creating the “exponential line” we had earlier. With benefits comes limitations. The first limitation is that it is focused more on qualitative data, such as countries that are “plummeting down”, and it does not have many other uses. Secondly, since numbers like 10,000 or 100,000 look so close, people can misinterpret the data and worry less about Covid-19. Finally, trends and qualitative data are slightly delayed, so the graph collects data over longer periods of time, namely weeks.

Some ways we can stop the spread of the virus are in terms of various real-life examples. In many cases, we can use SIR models, which can be used to simulate a population depending on many different factors. The S stands for Susceptible cases, I for Infected, and R for Recovered or Removed, since a person can either recover from the virus or become too vulnerable. Using the results from testing different factors such as if we had a central location or if the infection probability was halved can help us before moving on to our real-life situations.

In these times, it is hard to be able to find accurate information regarding Covid-19 and interpret certain trends that are going on in other countries. It’s important to understand that these mathematical ideas aren’t perfect and aren’t geared towards epidemiology, but they help us gain a better insight into what lies ahead in the future.

Figure 1. Linear scale Figure 2. Logarithmic scale Figure 3. New Cases – Total Cases Logarithmic Graph

Navigating Through This Situation

By Preanka Narenthiren, F2 Columnist

I tried to make sense of everything that was happening, quarantine seemed like it was part of either an unfathomable dystopian future or an archaic past, but above all, it seemed unreal. I decided that I needed to get away from my thoughts and go outside. March 20, was the first time I went on a walk during the quarantine. Looking around, the streets looked the same, but they felt so different. There weren’t kids playing outside, neighbors chatting, or people asking to pet the cute dog from the neighbor’s house. It was different. All life was just sucked out of a once effervescent and lively place.

I proceeded to make my way down a path of pebbles. As I walked with my dog, I observed his mannerisms. Before I thought nothing of his behavior, but during this particular walk, I noticed different things about him. I remarked how he would constantly stop to observe everything. Even the most rudimentary, common things, he would perceive with curiosity and marvel. He stared at the grass as if it’s a new discovery, he saw the trees as magnificent and thought of the squirrels as villainous.

All this time, I thought that breaks and pauses were a bad thing, that they were hindering my purpose, and that they were just impediments to my objective. Looking back, I realize that it's not so much of a bad thing.

Normally I would prompt my dog to focus his attention on the walk but this time, I followed him. It was probably the longest walk I’ve ever been on with him. Throughout the evening, I was led in the directions that most lured my dog. As a result, I was directed in circles, and every ten seconds my dog would stop but I found it interesting. Usually, I blindly move in the direction of where I thought I needed to be but this time, I let myself be directed to the movement of the wind, and because of this, I noticed more. I noticed the composition of a wildflower and how the grass was perfectly dewy after the showers from the previous night. I appreciated the perfect call of a flight of birds above.

There was a point where I decided to take control. This time, I started to think about other people. Looking around, there was this constant look of anxiety that occupied everyone's faces. Not only was there a physical distance between everyone, but there was an emotional distance. Just a few weeks prior, I greeted my neighbors and engaged in conversations with them, but now we barely interact beyond the cursory “hello”.

All I could think about was a poem I heard. It's about a group of young boys in a secret club of “lantern bearers”. They hide small tin lanterns under their dark, heavy coats. From the outside, they blended in with everyone else. They looked like every other boy, walking in the night. But when they meet one another, they lift their coats to reveal their burning lights.

In the midst of a pandemic, we’re all feeling hardship. It can be hard to think about what other people’s inner lights look like. These lights are the very things that illuminate us during times of darkness, yet they can be so faint. We pass one another, so intent on our own selves and our own problems, we can’t even begin to fathom what the person beside us is feeling, never imagining the burning fire that stays hidden under their dark coat.

After I came back from this walk of contemplation, I’ve thought alot about how this pandemic has impacted my life. Over the course of this quarantine, I realized that because of this situation, I’ve gained perspective. I’ve been more thoughtful. I can't remember a time where the whole world stopped talking and where I could hear and perceive things so clearly. I've never been more present. While we are all going through hardship, if there is one thing that this pandemic has done is make us all go silent and contemplative.

When this is all over, I hope I’ll continue to go on circuitous walks because it allows me to reflect. If there's anything to take away from my walks, it’s the importance of going outside to think. It's so easy to fall down a negative spiral with the current situation which is completely understandable. We have all lost things, some more than others, but I hope that we will be able to achieve an inner life rich with inner dialogue and thoughts.