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Past Seminars
Past Seminars
2025年度
2025年度
AY2025 ( April 2025- March 2026）
澤田 真行 (一橋大学 経済研究所)
Masayuki Sawada (Hitotsubashi University IER)
日時 date：2025年12月11日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：A unified test for regression discontinuity designs
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Diagnostic tests for regression discontinuity design face a size-control problem. We document a massive over-rejection of the diagnostic restriction among empirical studies in the top five economics journals. At least one diagnostic test was rejected for 19 out of 59 studies, whereas less than 5% of the collected 787 tests rejected the null hypotheses. In other words, one-third of the studies rejected at least one of their diagnostic tests, whereas their underlying identifying restrictions appear plausible. Multiple testing causes this problem because the median number of tests per study was as high as 12. The critical issue is the lack of a formal method to dismiss possibly false rejections caused by the multiple testing problem. Therefore, we offer unified tests to overcome the size-control problem. Our procedure is based on the new joint asymptotic normality of local polynomial mean and density estimates. In simulation studies, our unified tests outperformed the Bonferroni correction. We implement the procedure as an R package rdtest with two empirical examples in its vignettes.
山岡 淳 (神戸大学 大学院経済学研究科・経済学部)
Atsushi Yamaoka (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University )
日時 date：2025年11月27日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：救急搬送データと経済学研究
ミクロな行動変容から制度設計の評価まで
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：本講演では、総務省消防庁（FDMA）の救急搬送個票データが、経済学研究の分析ツールとなり得る可能性を、研究動向を踏まえながら検討する。当該データは、高解像度（秒・分単位）かつ網羅的な特性を持ち、需要側・供給側双方の経済行動の識別に利用可能である。データベースのフレームワークを示したうえで、実際の研究として需要側と供給側の選択を評価した研究について紹介する。そのうえで、当該データベースの単体での研究の限界（社会経済的要因の欠如）を指摘し、神戸市ヘルスケアデータとのリンケージによってこの課題を克服する、報告者自身の研究の可能性について展望する。
菅澤 武尊 (日本住宅総合センター)
Takeru Sugasawa (Housing Research and Advancement Foundation of Japan )
日時 date：2025年11月20日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：The Effect of the Property Tax Reform on High-Rise Condominium Transactions
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Does the reform of the property tax system have effects not only across space but also along the vertical dimension within buildings? The 2017 reform of Japan’s property tax on high-rise (tower) condominiums offers an interesting case: while the total tax amount per building remained unchanged, the allocation across units shifted based on floor level. Exploiting this reform, we examine how vertical variation in property tax liabilities within buildings affects real estate transactions. We find that sales prices respond sensitively to even small changes in the property tax rate. Under a 0.8–0.9% discount rate, the decline in property prices closely matches the present value of the increased future tax burden. In contrast, we observe no significant response in property rent.
Masanori Tsuruoka & Ryuji Sano (Yokohama National University)
日時 date：2025年11月6日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：
Beyond Quasilinearity: Exploring Nonlinear Scoring Rules in Procurement Auctions
Uncertain Quality Evaluation in Procurement Auctions
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：
This study examines procurement auctions in which a price-per-quality-ratio (PQR) scoring rule is used to evaluate bids consisting of price and quality. Equilibrium bidding behavior is characterized for first-score (FS) and second-score (SS) auctions in which bidder cost consists of unidimensional type and quality. In contrast to well-known quasilinear scoring rules, we show that the SS auction yields a lower expected score, and we provide a set of conditions under which expected quality and price are higher in the FS auction. We also find that buyers can achieve a lower PQR ratio by distorting the scoring rule.
This study examines bidder competition over price and quality in procurement auctions in which subjective quality evaluation creates uncertainty. We derive the symmetric Bayesian Nash equilibrium for a first-score auction, in which bidders submit cautious bids because the determination of a winner depends on chance. In a second-score auction, a truth-telling equilibrium exists and evaluation uncertainty does not affect bidding behavior. As the quality evaluation becomes more precise, the expected score and quality improve and expected price decreases. Moreover, the second-score auction is more efficient and achieves a better expected score, price, and quality than the first-score auction.
福元 健太郎 (東京大学)
Kentaro Fukumoto (University of Tokyo)
日時 date：2025年10月30日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title: The Gendered Flyer's Effect on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment without Individual Voting Record
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：His study intends to contribute to the get-out-the-vote literature in three ways. First, this work studies the effects of GOTV flyers, about which little is known. Second, I analyze whether a flyer that features a female picture has different effects on male and female voters’ turnout, although prior research paid little attention to this gap. Third, individuals’ voting records are public in the U.S., whereas they are not in other countries, including Japan, where I conducted an experiment. Instead, we only know voter turnout at the precinct level. Accordingly, I randomized the treatment of flyers at the precinct level. To address these three issues, just before the Japanese upper house election in 2025, I distributed about a million flyers with a picture of “Miss Japan” to some precincts in Tokyo. I found the treatment effect is null. Furthermore, I conducted a follow-up postal survey in a part of the targeted precincts and found that only 6.2 percent of citizens recognized the flyer.
濱村 純平 (関西学院大学)
Jumpei Hamamura (Kwansei Gakuin University)
日時 date：2025年10月16日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Harakiri: Is Japanese Managerial Compensation "Sticky"?
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：In this study, mainly focusing on the fixed salary, we document the managerial compensation contract in Japan empirically. In particular, this study examines the asymmetric sensitivity of managerial compensation, depending on the firm's performance, because, in managerial compensation practice, one can confirm the stickiness of managerial compensation. In this study, we define asymmetric compensation behavior depending on the firm performance as sticky or anti-sticky based on previous cost behavior studies. From our analysis, surprisingly, we find that managerial compensation is not only non-sticky in Japan, but also Japanese firms use the fixed salary as a punishment device. In other words, while conventional wisdom reveals the existence of stickiness in the managerial compensation contract, our evidence shows a significant decrease in managerial compensation, i.e., the anti-sticky compensation, in Japan when firms cannot achieve the previous performance. This managerial compensation practice, where executives take responsibility for the deterioration of their company's performance through their compensation, is similar to the traditional Japanese self-punishment act, harakiri, and can be considered a typical practice of managerial compensation in Japanese culture.
小松 功拓 (京都大学 経済研究所)
Katsuhiro Komatsu (Kyoto University IER)
日時 date：2025年10月9日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Temporary Layoffs and Unemployment Insurance
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This paper examines the labor market impact of unemployment insurance (UI), with a particular emphasis on firm layoff behavior.
I begin by providing empirical evidence that UI induces temporary layoffs of otherwise employed workers.
I then build and estimate an equilibrium labor market model in which unemployed workers choose job search intensity and firms, in response to temporary productivity shocks, can put workers on temporary layoff for subsequent recalls.
In the model, UI induces temporary layoffs through a novel interaction between worker moral hazard and firm layoff incentives, and even perfect experience rating does not fully eliminate UI-driven temporary layoffs.
The estimated model implies that increasing the UI benefit level and extending the benefit duration have different implications for the flow into unemployment as the latter is mainly targeted to workers on permanent layoff who tend to be unemployed longer.
Paper URL: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oA9osjT88q16LXwcFTodxAEOkhKd0dPf/view
李 慧慧 (近畿大学)
Huihui Li (Kindai University)
日時 date：2025年10月2日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：「仕事の自律性と主観的厚生―就業形態と実際の自律性の重要性―」
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：本研究は，日本の中年層を対象としたJILLS-i 調査データを用い，労働者の主観的自律性と制度上の就業形態（自営業または被用者が仕事満足度に与える影響を実証的に検討したものである。就業形態と自律性の有無を組み合わせた4 類型に基づき，内生性を考慮した2 段 階推定法を用いて分析を行った。その結果，制度上の就業形態にかかわらず，高い自律性が あると認識する労働者は，より高い仕事満足度を報告する傾向がある一方，自律性が低い自営業者は，自律性が低い被用者と同程度に満足度が低いことが明らかとなった。さらに，高い自律性は労働時間の短縮に繋がるが，そのこと自体が仕事満足度に与える影響は見られ なかった。このことは，就業者の主観的ウェルビーイングにとっては，自律的な働き方それ自体がもたらす内発的な動機付けの直接的な効果が重要であることを示している。
Paper URL: https://www.jil.go.jp/activity/project/jills-i/documents/DP25-Ex-03.pdf
笹原 彰 (慶應義塾大学)
Akira Sasahara (Keio University)
日時 date：2025年9月18日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Gender-specific exposure to trade, labor market adjustments, and the family
(with Hiroaki Mori and Kiho Muroga)
発表言語 language：English
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Using the sharp increase in trade with China from 1995 to 2005 as a natural experiment, we examine the impact of international trade on Japan’s labor market and family formation. By exploiting sectoral differences in gender ratios and spatial variations in sectoral specialization, we construct genderspecific exposure measures to import competition from China and export opportunities to China and examine their effects. Our results show that import competition adversely affected manufacturing employment, reduced labor force participation, and increased unemployment rates, while export opportunities had the opposite effects. These labor market impacts were particularly pronounced among young individuals in their 20s and 30s. Additionally, we find that a trade-induced improvement in women’s relative labor market conditions increased the share of never-married men and women in their 30s and early 40s.
津川 修一 (龍谷大学)
Shuichi Tsugawa (Ryukoku University)
日時 date：2025年9月11日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Resource allocation in repeated contest under present bias
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：When competition is long-lasting, the allocation of resources through time becomes essential. For example, corporate decision-makers must allocate a limited budget each year to R&D when they develop multiple technologies over years. A rational player would plan inputs to maximize the sum of the present value of the expected payoff over the entire period. However, experiments have shown that typical decision-makers tend to exhibit present bias and time inconsistency of preferences.
This study examines the influence of the present bias, represented by quasi-hyperbolic discounting model, on an individual’s choice of inputs in a contest and the total amount of inputs. We characterized an equilibrium in which players have the same degree of myopia, β. Moreover, we showed that equilibrium total inputs are independent of β when the degree of attrition α is sufficiently small, but may decrease in β when α is large. This result suggests that the presence of a present bias may instead work in the desired direction when total inputs are of interest.
吉原 直毅 (マサチューセッツ大学アマースト校)
Naoki Yoshihara (University of Massachusetts at Amherst)
日時 date：2025年7月23日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Exploitation: Theory and Empirics
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
備考 note：吉原さんの今季2回目の講演となります。Please notice this is his 2nd talk in this season
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This paper provides a novel axiomatic analysis of exploitation as the unequal exchange of labour, derives an empirical exploitation index at the individual level, and estimates its distribution in the US in 1975-2022. We show that, among existing definitions of exploitation, only one satisfies a small set of formally weak and normatively salient axioms. We derive from this definition an individual-level exploitation intensity index, computed from individual labour-income ratios. The exploitation intensity index provides a useful new measure of well-being and inequality, complementary to existing ones and able to jointly take into account the distributions of income and work time. In US data, exploitation intensity predicts important well-being relevant and political outcomes. Inequality in exploitation increased more than income inequality between 1975 and 2022.
大谷 克 (東京大学)
Suguru Otani (University of Tokyo)
日時 date：2025年7月17日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Last Man Standing On the Page
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：TBD
Shuhei Kaneko (UC Santa Barbara)
Shuhei Kaneko (UC Santa Barbara)
日時 date：2025年7月17日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：14:30-16:00
タイトル title：The Effects of Low-Level Fluoride Exposure on Dental Health and Skill Formation
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Although water fluoridation is widely recognized as a highly effective public health intervention, the appropriate dosage of fluoride remains a subject of ongoing debate. This study estimates the causal effects of childhood fluoride exposure at levels lower than those typically used in artificial fluoridation programs, leveraging quasi-exogenous variation in naturally occurring fluoride concentrations driven by regional geology in Japan. By combining this variation with unique longitudinal data tracking individuals from birth, along with nationally representative medical claims and patient survey data, we examine the impacts of fluoride exposure on dental health and human capital development. We find that even at low concentrations, fluoride significantly improves a range of dental health outcomes, despite widespread access to alternative preventive measures such as fluoride toothpaste. We find no evidence of adverse effects on educational attainment at low dosage, in contrast to concerns raised by studies of higher exposures. Importantly, fluoride exposure enhances self-esteem among females, but not males. The results suggest that improved confidence in one’s appearance is a key mechanism—consistent with pediatric dental science linking childhood cavities to the risk of malocclusion. Overall, our findings highlight the role of dental health in shaping non-cognitive development, particularly for girls, and suggest that policy discussions should consider both health and psychosocial benefits of early-life fluoride exposure.
二荒 麟 (メリーランド大学)
Rin Futara (University of Maryland)
日時 date：2025年7月10日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：The Role of Consumer Beliefs in Consumer Undervaluation of Automotive Fuel Cost Savings
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：The effectiveness of fuel economy standards in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions hinges on both the accuracy of official fuel consumption and consumers' ability to forecast future fuel cost savings. However, official fuel efficiency ratings often diverge from real-world values, and consumers likely hold heterogeneous beliefs about their future fuel savings. This study incorporates two key determinants of consumer future fuel cost beliefs: (i) heterogeneity in future fuel cost and (ii) consumer types characterized by belief components. A conceptual theoretical model highlights the econometric biases that arise when consumer beliefs are ignored in estimating the valuation parameter that governs future fuel cost savings. These insights are aligned with findings from the emerging behavioral economics literature. Empirical analysis using a discrete choice model provides support for the theoretical predictions. I also plan to explore the policy implications of incorporating consumer beliefs into the design and evaluation of fuel economy standards and metrics.
黒田 雄太 (東北大学)
Yuta Kuroda (Tohoku University)
日時 date：2025年6月26日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Heterogeneous Effects of Private High School Vouchers on Middle School Academic Achievement: The Role of Local Educational Environments in Japan
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This paper examines the impact of a private high school voucher program on the academic achievement of middle school students in Japan, focusing on regional differences in private school quality. Since 2010, a government-subsidized tuition support system has lowered the cost of private high schools, especially for low-income families. The program raises middle school students’ achievement in areas with high-quality private options, particularly in schools with many low-income students. In contrast, in regions where public high schools dominate, the program has little or even negative effects. These results suggest that the voucher program increases students’ effort by expanding their perceived opportunities for higher-quality education, highlighting the importance of considering local school quality when designing education policies.
礫石 恭伍 (一橋大学)
Kyogo Tsubuteishi (Hitotsubashi University)
日時 date：2025年6月19日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Startup Noncompetes in the Shadow of Acquihiring
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Non-compete agreements (NCAs) restrict employee mobility and often play important roles in startups, such as preventing leakage of intellectual property. In this article, I propose an additional role of NCAs in startups as a potential countermeasure to acquihiring by developing a model of labor market competition between a potential acquirer and a startup. In the model, the potential acquirer has two options to hire the startup’s employee, direct hiring (poaching) and acquihiring — the acquisition of a company to hire its talented employees. NCAs may either induce or prevent acquihiring by affecting the profitability from each hiring strategy for the potential acquirer. I identify the conditions under which NCAs prevent acquihiring and demonstrate that stricter NCA regulation may distort worker allocation and/or reduce worker welfare. This result indicates that, in the context of high-tech industries where acquihiring is relatively prevalent, increased regulation of NCAs could weaken startups, facilitate acquihiring by Big Tech firms, and ultimately reinforce their market power.
Paper URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/123852/1/MPRA_paper_123852.pdf
高橋 遼 (早稲田大学/UCサンタバーバラ)
Ryo Takahashi (Waseda University/UCSB)
日時 date：2025年6月19日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：13:30-15:00
タイトル title：Gaming for Cohesion: A Study on Integrating Refugees Through Virtual Intergroup Contact
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：TBD
林 正義 (東京大学)
Masayoshi Hayashi (University of Tokyo)
日時 date：2025年6月12日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Workload and Bureaucratic Disentitlement: Evidence from Public Assistance in Japan
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This study examines whether variations in workload influence rationing behavior in welfare provision by Japanese local governments. Exploiting exogenous changes in welfare caseloads caused by a large wave of municipal mergers, it analyzes how workload size affects the number of welfare applications, withdrawals, and rejections. Controlling for pre-existing caseloads, the findings reveal that an increase in caseworker staffing (i.e., a reduction in workload) leads to more applications and withdrawals, but does not affect rejections. Notably, the increase in applications exceeds that in withdrawals, resulting in a net rise in accepted applications. Furthermore, the positive effects of increased caseworker capacity on applications and withdrawals are more pronounced under heavier workloads. These results suggest that Japanese welfare offices may rely on informal forms of rejection. Overall, the findings support the Type I error explanation of bureaucratic disentitlement—where eligible individuals are erroneously excluded—as emphasized in the literature, rather than the Type II error explanation associated with the “cursory assessment” hypothesis posited by the Japanese government.
Paper URL： https://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2025/2025cf1250.pdf
吉原 直毅 (マサチューセッツ大学アマースト校)
Naoki Yoshihara (University of Massachusetts at Amherst)
日時 date：2025年5月22日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：資本制経済の基礎理論
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：「数理的マルクス経済学」について、吉原さんの業績を中心にまとめた話をしてくださいます。
阪本 諒 (慶應義塾大学)
Ryo Sakamoto (Keio University)
日時 date：2025年5月8日（木 Thu） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Gender Norms Limit Growth
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Persistent declines in fertility rates pose significant challenges to long-run economic growth in many advanced economies. Recent research suggests that social and cultural factors, particularly entrenched gender norms, play a crucial role in shaping demographic dynamics and labor market outcomes. We examine the impact of gender norms on fertility and economic growth. To this end, we build an overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility and labor supply, incorporating both gender norms and research and development activities. We demonstrate that conventional gender norms impede demographic and economic outcomes. In particular, when gender norms are sufficiently traditional, the economy converges to a steady state characterized by negative population growth and stagnating per capita income. Our model elucidates the observed fertility differentials among high-income countries and predicts how these disparities translate into long-term differences in human prosperity. Finally, we provide policy implications by analyzing policies that directly modify gender norms and those that provide child allowances.
神林 龍 (武蔵大学)
Ryo Kambayashi (Musashi University)
日時 date：2025年5月1日（木 Mon） Google Calendar
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Employers' Unilateral Settlement of Dismissal Disputes
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：A legally binding unilateral settlement option for dismissal disputes could streamline the dismissal process, but concerns persist about the potential overuse of dismissals. To assess this claim, we develop a model of employment adjustment followed by negotiation under litigation threat, and show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, unilateral settlement can enhance total surplus and benefit workers with relatively high productivity when employment adjustment does not significantly hurt productivity. These results stem from a fundamental trade-off: employers must forgo potential worker output to avoid litigation costs, which alters the threat points of wage negotiations and dismissal decisions in favor of workers. Our findings suggest that properly designed unilateral settlement institutions can contribute to both stable employment, efficiency and distributional equity in labor markets beyond merely reducing litigation costs, particularly in contexts with high productivity retention rates.
Paper URL: https://sciety.org/articles/activity/10.31235/osf.io/89xgj_v3
田中 聡史 (クイーンズランド大学)
Satoshi Tanaka (University of Queensland)
日時 date：2025年4月21日（月 Mon） Google Calendar
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：College Majors and Skill Mismatch in Labour Markets
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This paper studies the extent of skill mismatch across college major-occupation combinations. In the framework of this paper, skill mismatch is measured through individual wage losses in partial equilibrium and through output losses in general equilibrium. The model relies on the estimation of major-occupation returns based on the Roy model. Using Australian administrative tax panel data containing employment history and university degree information, we find sizeable wage losses, up to 28 percent, but smaller general equilibrium output losses, up to 10 percent– at the upper bound– from workers being allocated to occupations not well linked to their majors. Our results show that STEM, Commerce, and Social Science and Arts majors are the main drivers of aggregate mismatch, but a worker’s occupational mismatch declines over the life cycle, and, most importantly, in general equilibrium, disappears almost entirely by age 35.
Paper URL : https://economics.uq.edu.au/files/52016/4924.pdf
髙安 優太郎 (東京大学)
Yutaro Takayasu (University of Tokyo)
日時 date：2025年4月17日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：The Last or Lasting Samurai? The Impact of Secondary Schools on Elite Formation after Social Transition
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：When societies transition from hereditary to meritocratic systems, does the democratization of education foster social mobility? We investigate this question in Japan after the Meiji Restoration (1868), which abolished the samurai's hereditary privileges in public sector positions. Using cohort-specific discontinuities in access to newly established secondary schools, we examine how expanded educational opportunities influenced the likelihood of attaining leadership roles in the public and private sectors for samurai and commoners. We find that secondary education increased the number of elites from both social groups, yet most new elites pursued occupations historically associated with their families. However, within both social groups, the new elites entirely came from non-elite fathers, suggesting that secondary education fostered upward mobility.
森口 千晶 (一橋大学)
Chiaki Moriguchi (Hitotsubashi University)
日時 date：2025年4月3日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Meritocracy and Its Discontents: Long-run Effects of Repeated School Admission Reforms
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：What happens if selective colleges change their admission policies? We study this question by analyzing the world's first implementation of nationally centralized meritocratic admissions in the early twentieth century. We find a persistent meritocracy-equity tradeoff. Compared to the decentralized system, the centralized system admitted more highachievers and produced more occupational elites (such as top income earners) decades later in the labor market. This gain came at a distributional cost, however. Meritocratic centralization also increased the number of urban-born elites relative to rural-born ones, undermining equal access to higher education and career advancement.
Paper URL： https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.04429
2024年度
2024年度
AY2024 ( April 2024- March 2025）
高野 佳佑 (佐賀大学)
Keisuke Takano (Saga University)
日時 date：2025年1月30日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Location advantages and sorting in high school education
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This study examines the impacts of eliminating school zones, focusing on the commuting behavior of high school students. To address this issue, we exploit the reform of the education system of public high schools in Nagasaki City, Japan. Before the reform in 2002, the local government assigned students to each school to equalize the educational level among schools. While the reform enabled the students to choose a school on their own, the gap in academic performance among schools has widened. We found that one possible reason for this gap is the concentration of students from highly educated areas to schools with location advantages regarding several dimensions of accessibility.
井上ちひろ (神戸大学)
Chihiro Inoue (Kobe University)
日時 date：2025年1月9日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:00-17:30
タイトル title：Girls Help Girls but Not Boys: Revisiting Gender Peer Effects in Elementary Schools
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：I estimate the effect of peer gender composition on elementary school students’ test scores and examine the underlying mechanism using data from Saitama Prefecture, Japan. Exploiting within-school and across-cohort variation in gender composition, I show that a higher female ratio increases girls’ test scores but does not affect boys’ test scores. I propose a decomposition method that mitigates spurious correlations and suggest that the null effect on boys’ test scores masks the positive effects operating through the better learning environment at school and the negative effects operating through reduced study engagement.
石原 卓弥 (東北大学)
Takuya Ishihara (Tohoku University)
日時 date：2025年1月9日（木 Thu）
時間 time：14:00-15:30
タイトル title：Identifying the Identifiable: Empirical Learning of the Point-Identified Subset for Regression Discontinuity Designs
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：We propose a method to estimate a treatment effect for a regression discontinuity design that violates an identifying testable restriction. We employ a classification algorithm to identify the identifiable subsample that satisfies the identifying restriction. We provide consistent estimators for the identifiable subset and the average treatment effect within the identifiable subset. We further show that the treatment effect estimator attains the same convergence rate as the subset estimator.
後藤 潤 (政策研究大学院大学)
Jun Goto (GRIPS)
日時 date：2024年12月19日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Judicial Independence and Economic Development: Evidence from the Constitutional Reinterpretation in India
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Judicial independence is a cornerstone of state capacity and economic development, yet credible evidence on its effects remains limited. This paper investigates the impact of ensuring judicial independence in India, leveraging the 1993 constitutional reinterpretation on judicial appointments as a natural experiment. Using a difference-in-differences design, we exploit variations in mandatory retirement timings of judges across high courts. We find that judicial independence reduces pro-government rulings in land disputes and enhances decision quality, measured by evidence-based judgments. These legal reforms induce economic development, increasing private investment in housing, real estate, and building construction, and fostering urbanization over two decades. Our findings highlight judicial independence as a driver of economic growth by securing property rights and enabling long-term investments.
遠山 祐太 (早稲田大学)
Yuta Toyama (Waseda University)
日時 date：2024年12月13日（金 Thu）
時間 time：16:00-17:30
タイトル title：Designing Nonlinear Electricity Pricing with Misperception: Evidence from Free Electricity Policy (w/ Ngawang Dendup)
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese with slides in English (Q&A available in English)
会場 venue：教授研究棟 02-C会議室 Room 02-C in Research Building
備考 Note: J-TREE主催
概要 abstract ：This paper assesses the welfare effects of nonlinear electricity pricing in the presence of consumer misperceptions regarding the pricing schedule. Our analysis focuses on a unique electricity subsidy program in Bhutan, wherein electricity is provided free of charge up to a consumption of 100 kWh per month in rural regions. Utilizing administrative billing data from the entire population of retail customers, we observe a notable bunching of electricity consumption at 100 kWh following the introduction of the program. In order to explain this observation and deduce the welfare implications of the policy, we develop and estimate a model of electricity demand that accounts for the heterogeneous (mis)perceptions of consumers regarding the pricing schedule. By leveraging the differential behavior at the threshold and variation of the tariff schedule, we identify and estimate the types of perceived pricing schedules and underlying electricity demand. We conduct a simulation analysis to evaluate the free electricity policy, which demonstrates that the current subsidy scheme primarily benefits households with higher electricity consumption. We explore the optimal tariff schedule and its welfare and distributional implications.
山岸 敦 (一橋大学)
Atsushi Yamagishi (Hitotsubashi University)
日時 date：2024年12月12日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Wage Spillovers across Sectors: Evidence from a Localized Public-Sector Wage Cut
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Wage Spillovers across Sectors: Evidence from a Localized Public-Sector Wage CutWe study how institutional wage reforms in one sector spill over to other sectors by analyzing the public sector. We leverage the Japanese policy reform that cut public-sector wages only in certain municipalities and the institutional setting in which only young workers are eligible for public-sector jobs. We find that a 1% public-sector wage cut reduces the private-sector wages of young workers by 0.3%. Consistent with labor market competition between public and private sectors, the wage spillover is larger in sectors or locations where the public sector jobs serve as a more important outside option. We also find limited importance of downward wage rigidity in our context.
三浦 憲 (京都大学)
Ken Miura (Kyoto University)
日時 date：2024年11月28日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Hidden Actions by Wives in Contraceptive Behavior: Evidence from Zambian Couples (w/ Kayako Nagasawa)
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Despite policy efforts to relax supply-side constraints, contraceptive use by couples in sub-Saharan Africa is still suboptimal. This study examines the mismatch of fertility preferences among spouses as a demand-side constraint behind the unmet need for contraception using data from couples in Zambia. Results find a significant gap in the extent to which the couple’s contraceptive decision-making reflects individual fertility preferences between the wife and husband if the wife reports contraceptive use. The estimated weights are approximately equal instead when the husband answers contraception. These contrasting results indicate hidden actions by wives. As further evidence of this perspective, matrilineal wives with greater autonomy are more likely to use time-consuming but concealable contraceptive methods (e.g., injections and implants) than patrilineal counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of modeling information asymmetry and hidden actions by wives in contraceptive decision-making to understand low contraceptive use in sub-Saharan Africa.
寺本 和弘 (一橋大学)
Kazuhiro Teramoto (Hitotsubashi University)
日時 date：2024年11月21日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Can Internal Mobility Reduce Employee Attrition? Evidence from Business-Card Data
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This paper examines the impact of internal job changes, such as job rotations, on subsequent career trajectories. To this end, we construct a career history panel dataset derived from an online business card database. The dataset tracks monthly transitions in employers, internal departments, job titles, and work locations for approximately 70,000 Japanese workers over a 10-year period starting in 2014. The dataset spanning diverse industries and cohorts integrates with a corporate information database, forming a linked employer-employee matched structure. Using this dataset, we investigate how internal mobility—defined as changes in internal departments, job titles, or work locations without a change in employer—affects the likelihood of future firm transitions. We find that internal mobility significantly reduces the probability of future firm changes, with the effect being particularly pronounced within the first year of the internal move. Moreover, the impact varies by job rank, being stronger for managerial positions compared to lower-level positions. Notably, for younger workers in managerial positions, the effect is especially pronounced, substantially decreasing their likelihood of changing firms.
関口 格 (京都大学)
Tadashi Sekiguchi (Kyoto University)
日時 date：2024年11月7日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Bertrand Equilibrium with Capacity Constraints under a Sales Maximization
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：We study Bertrand duopoly games with capacity constraints, under a specific rationing rule introduced by Notsu~(2023). The rule, called Sales maximization rule (S rule), rations the consumers willing to buy from a firm with a lower price according to their unwillingness to pay. S rule is diametrically opposite to the standard Efficient rule (E rule), where the consumers are rationed to a firm with a lower price according to their willingness to pay. We show that the games have a unique equilibrium and that the equilibrium profit of each firm equals its minmax vaue by randomized strategies. The equilibrium profit under S rule is greater than the equilibrium profit of the game where the rationing rule is replaced by E rule. This implies that the firms with capacity constraints prefer S rule if they can design the rationing rule of the market. Since the equilibrium is by randomized strategies, our result explains sales, or a price dispersion among homogeneous products, as equilibrium phenomena. Further, firms charge prices greater than the optimal price in case of monopoly with a nonzero probability under the equilibrium.
Jieun Shin (IESE Barcelona)
日時 date：2024年10月24日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Fuel Prices and Carbon Emissions: The Role of Structured Management Practices
発表言語 language：English
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
岸下 大樹 (東京理科大学)
Daiki Kishishita (Tokyo University of Science)
日時 date：2024年10月3日（木 Thu）
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：Population Dynamics of Conspiracy Thinking
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
清水 崇 (神戸大学)
Takashi Shimizu (Kobe University)
日時 date：2024年9月19日（木 Thu）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：On the Combination of Biased Members
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：We consider the information transmission problem within organization, and especially we focus on how to combine biased subordinates to elicit truthful information from them. We assume that the directions of subordinates' biases are common knowledge, but not their sizes. This leads to the results that homogeneous combination of subordinates are better than heterogeneous one. This is because in the case of homogeneous subordinates, the effect of one's false report might be accelerated by another false report and this anxiety reduces an incentive for Subordinates to send a false report.
片桐 満 (法政大学)
Mitsuru Katagiri (Hosei University)
日時 date：2024年9月12日（木 Thu）
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：Beyond Flexibility: Pitfalls in Liberalizing Temporary Workers
発表言語 language：TBA
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This study examines the effects of liberalizing the use of temporary workers within a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms. Given stringent employment protection legislation (EPL) for regular workers, liberalizing temporary workers leads to more efficient labor allocation across firms while deterring human capital accumulation among workers. A quantitative analysis using Japanese data implies that liberalizing temporary workers could deteriorate social welfare because firms might overly rely on them. Easing EPL for regular workers significantly improves social welfare not only by realizing more efficient labor allocation across firms but also by reducing the share of temporary workers.
富 蓉 (早稲田大学)
Rong Fu (Waseda University)
日時 date：2024年7月25日（木 Thu）
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：In Utero Exposure to Radiation Fear and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident
発表言語 language：English
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This study assesses the impact of prenatal radiation fear following the Fukushima nuclear accident on birth outcomes and child health over eight years. By integrating birth records with census and data from Google Trends, we analyze the quasi-experimental exposure of children to prenatal radiation fear. Our results suggest that prenatal stress significantly reduces birth weight and increases the risk of preterm births, with the most pronounced effects observed when exposure occurs during the first trimester. The adverse impacts intensify with higher levels of fear and are more acute among lower-income families and less-educated mothers. Additionally, while the negative effects are evident at birth and persist until age two, they abate by age five, suggesting that the influence of prenatal stress on physical health is temporary. This study enhances our understanding of the maternal stress impacts from intangible risks, emphasizing the need for targeted health interventions during pregnancy.
朝井 友紀子 (University of Chicago, USA)
Yukiko Asai (University of Chicago)
日時 date：2024年7月23日（火 Tue）
時間 time：16:30-18:00
タイトル title：Gender Bias in Evaluation and Promotion
発表言語 language：Up to Audience
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Women continue to lag behind pay and promotions compared with their male counterparts, contributing to the gender wage gap. We investigate whether these gender gaps can, to some extent, be explained by gender differences in self-promotion and supervisors’ evaluations. We examine the employment records from a large business solutions firm in Japan. These records contain objective measures of ability (university rank and exam score) and productivity (tasks completed) that are linked to the subjective evaluations that supervisors use to grant promotions. These subjective evaluations consist of two parts: a self-rating component and a rating by a supervisor. We begin by documenting a large gender gap in self-evaluations as well as supervisor evaluations: conditional on observed productivity, women tend to evaluate themselves lower than their male peers. Supervisors use these self-evaluations as inputs, and as a result are more likely to provide women lower evaluations than men, conditional on productivity. The gender gap is more pronounced when they evaluate stereotypically male-typed tasks than female-typed tasks: Women tend to evaluate themselves lower when working on a male-typed task, and women tend to receive lower evaluations from their supervisors conditional on ability when they are on a male-typed task. After supervisors were informed of this discrepancy in self-evaluations, supervisor evaluations of women at the company increased, suggesting that providing knowledge about these gaps can help improve equity.
Amy Catalinac (New York University, USA)
日時 date：2024年7月2日（火 Tue）
時間 time：17:15-18:45
タイトル title：Dominance Through Division: Group-Based Clientelism in Japan
発表言語 language：English
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：Japan is the fourth largest economy in the world and a key ally of the United States. Yet its politics are highly anomalous: it has been ruled almost continuously by a single party since that party’s formation in 1955. My book offers a new theory, group-based clientelism, that can account for this puzzle. Under the right institutional conditions, the theory holds that democratically-elected politicians will be able to form clientelistic relationships with *groups of voters* in their electoral districts. By this, I mean they will be able to tie the amount of goods groups of voters receive to the levels of support they provide politicians in elections. My book combines a wealth of new quantitative and qualitative evidence over a thirty five-year period to show that group-based clientelism has been a key component of LDP electoral strategies since 1980.
プロフィール short bio：Amy Catalinac is an Associate Professor in the Department of Politics at New York University. She is a scholar of electoral systems, distributive politics, and the politics of contemporary Japan. In 2023-2024, she is a Visiting Research Scholar at Princeton University. She received her Ph.D. from the Department of Government at Harvard University. Her undergraduate education took place in her native New Zealand. She has studied at the University of Tokyo and has spent several years living and studying in Japan.
打越 文弥 (Princeton University, USA)
Fumiya Uchikoshi (Princeton University)
日時 date：2024年6月27日（木 Thu）
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：The role of skill portability in shaping women’s career trajectories: Evidence from Japan
発表言語 language：English
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
Arnaud LEFRANC (CY Cergy Paris Université, France)
日時 date：2024年6月20日（木 Thu）
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：Does comprehensive compulsory schooling equalize opportunities? Evidence from the Swedish compulsory schooling reform
発表言語 language：English
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：we analyze the long-run distributional effects of the increase of compulsory schooling implemented in Sweden after WWII. To assess the extent of inequality of opportunity, we focus on the distribution of labor market earnings, conditional on father's education. According to equality of opportunity theories, any gap in the distribution of earnings attributable to differences in family background should be interpreted as inequality of opportunity. The reform is said to equalize opportunities if it reduces the gaps in the conditional income distribution, across different levels of parental education. We assess the effect of the reform using estimates of the quantile treatment effects of the reform conditional on family background. Our identification exploits the quasi-experimental implementation of the reform. Our results first indicate significant inequality of opportunity for earnings acquisition among post-WWII Swedish cohorts. Second, while the educational expansion policy had virtually no effect on the average level of earnings of treated individuals, it allowed to significantly equalize opportunities by closing the gap in the opportunity profile of children of low vs. high education parents.
Florian Diekert (University of Augsburg, Germany)
日時 date：2024年6月3日（月 Mon）
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：Subsidzing Compliance in an Open-Access Fishery
発表言語 language：English
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
論文URL paper URL：https://www.awi.uni-heidelberg.de/md/awi/forschung/deseminar/dp711.pdf
概要 abstract ：Illegal, unreported and unregulated resource use is a major problem, especially in developing countries. We propose the use of subsidies to induce compliance. By making harvesting more compliant, the policy is designed to protect the resource even if it attracts new entry under open-access. We develop a theoretical model to identify the circumstances under which such a subsidy poliy is welfare-enhancing. Further, we develop a novel multiple price list mechanism to determine the subsidy required to induce demand for legal inputs, compensating resource users for productivity losses net of enforcement risk. Finally, we conduct a randomized intervention to assess the impact of the subsidy policy on fishers’ effort, catch, and revenue.
渡辺 誠 (京都大学)
Makoto Watanabe (Kyoto University)
日時 date：2024年5月23日（木 Thu）
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：A Model of Supply Chain Finance
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This article develops a model in which an intermediary uses a supply chain finance (SCF) program to fund suppliers. The SCF program pools liquidity from suppliers and meanwhile provides immediate payment to suppliers with pressing liquidity needs. We show that the intermediary optimally selects not only suppliers with positive profitability but also suppliers with negative profitability who, however, contribute to the liquidity pool. Inserting the model to an otherwise standard monetary framework, we show that with higher nominal interest rates, the SCF program emphasizes the liquidity contribution more and the profitability contribution less. Deviating from the Friedman rule, where only suppliers with positive profitability are selected, may lead to welfare gains.
浅井 健太郎 (Paris School of Economics, France)
Kentaro Asai (Paris School of Economics)
日時 date：2024年5月9日（木 Thu）
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：Firm-Level Effects of Reductions in Working Hours
発表言語 language：English
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：This paper examines how legislative reductions in working hours impact firms’ employment, output, and productivity. We exploit a Portuguese reform that reduced standard hours from 44 to 40 hours in 1996. Our findings indicate that the reform had adverse effects on the employment and output of affected firms. These effects can be attributed to a mechanical increase in hourly labor cost induced by the restriction imposed on firms to reduce monthly salaries along with hours. Treated firms adjusted their employment by reducing hiring. Furthermore, treated firms significantly improved hourly labor productivity, and there is some evidence suggesting an intensified use of capital. Firms that reduced working hours through collective agreements prior to the reform were able to increase productivity without adverse effects on employment and output. Together, these results show that working hour reductions can decrease employment for affected firms while simultaneously inducing a more efficient use of labor.
江口 匡太 (中央大学)
Kyota Eguchi (Chuo University)
日時 date：2024年4月18日（木 Thu）
時間 time：17:00-18:30
タイトル title：衆議院選挙制度改革が与えた候補者の広報戦略への影響：東京都選挙区「選挙公報」による分析
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：1994年の衆議院選挙制度改革が候補者の広報戦略にどのような変化を与えたのかについて考える。衆議院選挙制度改革は候補者中心の選挙戦から政党中心の選挙戦への変化をもたらすと予想されていた。その結果、1)候補者は候補者個人の業績や能力よりも所属政党の公約を訴え、2)政策も地元への利益誘導よりも安全保障やエネルギーなどの国家レベルの論戦が行われると思われていた。そこで、1983年から2014年までの東京都の「選挙公報」を用いて、1)候補者名と所属政党名の表記の大きさ（面積率）と、2)地元に関する公約をコード化して検証を試みた。簡単なOLS推定によると、改革後には1)政党名は予想通り大きくなっていたが、候補者名も予想に反して大きくなっていた、2)地元への公約は予想通り減少していたが、自民党候補は他の候補に比べて地元への公約を訴えていたことが分かった。また、制度改革が行われなかった参議院選挙東京都選挙区の「選挙公報」と比較してみても、衆議院の候補者は改革後に候補者名を大きくしていた。
梅谷 隼人 (神戸大学)
Hayato Umetani (Kobe University)
日時 date：2024年4月11日（木 Thu）
時間 time：13:30-15:00
タイトル title：Wildfires, Pollution, and Pregnancy Outcomes: Evidence from Lightning-Initiated Wildfires
発表言語 language：日本語 Japanese
会場 venue：教授研究棟 03-G会議室 Room 03-G in Research Building
概要 abstract ：The risk of wildfire in the US has been increasing due to climate change. This study investigates the causal effects of in utero exposure to wildfire smoke on pregnancy outcomes in the US. The identification strategy exploits a plausibly exogenous variation in lightning strikes as an instrument. The empirical results indicate that a 1km^2 wildfire emits various pollutants well above national air quality standards. Exposure to a 1 standard deviation increase in wildfire in utero reduces birth weight by 113.1 grams and gestational age by 0.365 weeks. The magnitude of these effects is much larger than estimates using wind patterns for identification. These findings suggest that existing studies using wind patterns can underestimate the adverse health effects of pollution due to their dispersion properties.
2023年度
2023年度
AY2023 ( April 2023- March 2024)
安田昌平 (日本大学)
Shohei Yasuda (Nihon University)
日時：2024年2月20日（火）Google Calendar
時間：16:30-18:00
タイトル：Impact of flood zone information on rentail housing market: Evidence from Kanto-Tohoku heavy rainfall
会場：03-G会議室（教授研究棟3階）
長谷川誠 (京都大学)
Makoto Hasegawa (Kyoto University)
日時：2024年2月13日（火）Google Calendar
時間：16:30-18:00
タイトル：The Effect of Foreign Dividend Exemption on Profit Repatriation through Dividends, Royalties, and Interest: Evidence from Japan
会場：1405教室（１号館4階）
Renato Molina (University of Miami, USA）
日時：2024年1月26日（金）カレンダー
時間：15:00-16:30
タイトル：The Social Value of Forecasting Hurricanes in the US
会場：02-C会議室（教授研究棟2階）
発表言語：English
備考：J-TREEとの共催実施
概要：What is the impact and value of hurricane forecasts? We study this question using newly-collected forecast data for major US hurricanes since 2005. We find that higher wind speed forecasts increase pre-landfall protective spending, but erroneous under-forecasts increase post-landfall damage and rebuilding costs. We develop a theoretically-grounded approach for estimating the marginal value of forecast improvements and find that the average annual improvement reduces total per-hurricane costs by over $400,000/county. Improvements since 2007 reduced costs by 18%, totaling billions of dollars per hurricane. This exceeds the annual budget for all federal weather forecasting in the US.
十河 丈晴 (SKEMA Business School, France)
Takeharu Sogo
日時：2024年1月10日（水）カレンダー
時間：16:30-18:00
タイトル：Asymmetric Optimal Auction Design with Loss-Averse Bidders
会場：03-G会議室（教授研究棟3階）
備考：菊池さんと同日開催
要旨：We study optimal auctions with expectation-based loss-averse bidders. We first consider when bidders are ex-ante identical. Although symmetric designs are optimal for bidders with expected-utility preferences, if the degree of loss aversion is sufficiently large relative to the variation in valuations, expected revenues are higher in the optimal design with one buyer than in any symmetric mechanism with multiple bidders. Further, we provide a sufficient condition under which optimal mechanisms are necessarily asymmetric. When bidders are ex-ante heterogeneous, the optimal degree of favoritism must be modified from the level in Myerson (1981) to reduce the uncertainty in auction outcomes. Not only the degree of the required modification but also the direction of the modification may not be monotone in the degree of loss aversion.
Paper URL： https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4207422
菊池信之介 (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA)
Shinnosuke Kikuchi
日時：2024年1月10日（水）カレンダー
時間：14:00-15:30
タイトル：Automation and Comparative Advantage
会場：03-G会議室（教授研究棟3階）
備考：十河さんと同日開催
要旨：I study how automation affects comparative advantage and structural change in an open economy. Previously, the initial stages of economic development featured comparative advantage in low-skill-intensive manufacturing sectors because of low-skill-labor abundance. Recently, however, I show that this relationship has weakened—or even reversed. This decoupling occurs because automation provides developed countries with endogenous comparative advantage in low-skill-intensive and automatable sectors. Therefore, developing countries today do not specialize in low-skill intensive manufacturing sectors and jump onto service sectors.
中川 万理子 (一橋大学経済研究所)
Mariko Nakagawa (Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University)
日時：2023年12月12日（火）カレンダー
時間：17:00-18:30
タイトル：Attracting attention: Case of Corona beer sales after the COVID-19 shock
会場：03-G会議室（教授研究棟3階）
概要：Taking an example of Corona beer sales in Tokyo before and after theCOVID-19 shock, I investigated how attracting consumers’ attention impacts product sales. Using monthly foreign beer product sales information from the POS data, I conducted an event study, based on a synthetic control method (SCM). The result found in the analysis is that the actual Corona beer sales skyrocketed after the shock, compared to the synthetic Corona beer sales. Although this huge positive impact shrank after a couple of months, the actual Corona beer sales amount continued to be larger than the synthetic sales amount. One obvious mechanism that can induce this positive effect is that Corona beer attracted consumers’ attention after the shock. To verify this story, I compared the time series of the estimated effect on Corona beer sales and the (relative) search volume for “Korona biru” (Corona beer in Japanese), extracted from Google Trends data. The variable can be viewed as the extent of people’s attention to Corona beer. A comparison of the two series suggests that more attention to Corona beer is a positive indicator of its larger sales amount. The finding indicates that the sales amount can increase by coming under the spotlight even when the perceived quality by potential consumers is kept unchanged. To further seek a possible mechanism, I collected tweets that contain the keyword “Korona biru.” Executing text classification tasks based on the sentiment polarization or Plutchik’s emotion categories, I found that not only negative emotions toward Corona beer but also positive ones were induced by the COVID-19 crisis, suggesting that the Corona beer was not necessarily perceived negatively despite the negative image due to Coronavirus. For another mechanism regarding the increased sales amount of the Corona beer, I also investigated the shares of tweet authors who tweeted only before/ only after/ both before and after the shock for each beer brand. What I found is that, compared to the other major foreign beer brands, Corona beer obtained new authors mentioning it, relative to old authors. Corona beer has obtained more new attention after the shock, which may have led to its larger sales amount.
中澤 伸彦 (一橋大学）
日時：2023年11月30日（木）
時間：15:00-16:30
タイトル：Does How Air Pollution Levels Are Labeled Matter? Evidence from Consumption of Respiratory Medicine in South Korea
会場：02-C会議室（教授研究棟2階）
備考：J-TREEとの共催実施
概要：We analyze how a change in the guidelines for describing exposure to air pollution affects the consumption of respiratory medicine. In 2018, the government of the Republic of Korea (South Korea) changed air pollution warning standards to a level that was more severe than the one the government had previously used, thus causing people to perceive a greater danger from air pollution. Exploiting exogenous policy change and district-level spatial variation, we find that one additional day with a label changed from “normal” to “bad” under the new guidelines was associated with an increase in the consumption of medicine related to the respiratory system and cough suppression by 0.5% per person, although actual air pollutant levels did not change. The results suggest that environmental policy that affects individuals’ perceptions has an impact on their health-related behaviors, even though actual pollutant levels have not changed. Our extended and heterogeneous analyses reveal that 1) the impact is larger with a single, isolated day of “bad” air pollution than one additional day among consecutive days of “bad” air pollution, 2) the impact on other respiratory medicines such as those for obstructive airway diseases and systemic use is limited, 3) the impact is greater in areas with more elderly people, and 4) the effect on population flow is limited. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and pass several placebo tests.
大谷 克 (Rice University)
日時：2023年11月28日（火）
時間：17:00-18:30
タイトル：Industry Dynamics with Shipping Cartels: The Case of the Container Shipping Industry
会場：03-G会議室（教授研究棟3階）
概要：I investigate how explicit cartels, known as "shipping conferences", in a global container shipping market facilitated the formation of one of the largest globally integrated markets through entry, exit, and shipbuilding investment of shipping firms. Using a novel data, I develop and construct a structural model and find that the cartels shifted shipping prices by 20-50\% and encouraged firms' entry and investment. In the counterfactual, I find that cartels would increase producer surplus while slightly decreasing consumer surplus, then may increase social welfare by encouraging firms' entry and shipbuilding investment. This would validate industry policies controlling prices and quantities in the early stage of the new industry, which may not be always harmful. Investigating hypothetical allocation rules supporting large or small firms, I find that the actual rule based on tonnage shares is the best to maximize social welfare.
泉 佑太朗 (政策研究大学院大学)
日時：2023年11月14日（火）
時間：17:00-18:30
タイトル：CEO Gender Bias in the Formation of Firm-to-Firm Transactions
元橋一輝（一橋大学）
日時：2023年11月7日（火）
時間：17:00-18:30
タイトル：The Impact of Municipal Mergers on Pollution Control: Evidence of River Pollution in Japan
佐藤 進 (一橋大学経済研究所)
日時：2023年10月26日（木）
時間：16:30-18:00
タイトル：Oligopoly Pricing with Bundling and Fringe Entry: Semi-Aggregative Framework with An Application to Telecommunication Industry
尾崎祐介 (早稲田大学)
日時：2023年10月12日（木）
時間：16:30-18:00
タイトル：The endowment effect in public good game experiments-The motive behind warm glow-
Alex Bryson (University College London)
日時：2023年9月19日（火）
時間：17:00-18:30
タイトル：The Adult Consequences on Wellbeing of Abuse and Neglect in Childhood
Motoaki Takahashi (Penn State Univ., USA)
日時：2023年7月13日（木）
時間：16:30-18:00
タイトル：The Aggregate Effects of the Great Black Migration
高橋遼 (早稲田大学)
日時：2023年7月11日（火）
時間：17:00-18:30
タイトル：From the Holy Land to the Homeland: The impact of Anime Broadcast on Local Economies in Japan.
Paul Cheung (U. Texas Dallas)
日時：2023年6月26日（月）
時間：17:00-18:30
タイトル：Decision Making with Recommendation
古川知志雄 (横浜国立大学)
日時：2023年6月6日（火）
時間：17:00-18:30
タイトル：Bounded Rationality and Randomized Experiments
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