Features

Projected World Population Numbers, courtesy of Forbes.com

THE WORLD in 2100


Crystal Guo looks at possible scenarios once human population reaches 12 billion, and technologies that may help us avoid a bleak future.

Smoke blocks the moonlight, as the grimy factories continue to make a racket, even though it was past midnight. Around you are neighborhoods with small shacks made from whatever people could find. A grand mansion, however, stood at the far end, sparkling with vibrant lights. An army officer stomps around, knocking on doors. You wonder what was going on, as a young man steps out, looking defeated. You realize with sudden horror that the officer was conscripting men for a war… Just as a loud scream tears through the soft buzz of night. You look up, petrified, as a bomb whirls through the air and smashes with a crash. The sky lit up with burning red, as fires burst out from the wooden shacks and everything faded to black.


This might seem like a page from a dystopian novel, but this is what could happen when our population skyrockets to 12 billion, which scientists predict will be in 2100.


Despite much effort and resources put into saving the environment, the world is still getting polluted. What would happen to the environment if the population skyrocketed to 12 billion? Will polar bears still survive? Or will we slowly die out too, with not enough resources to meet basic needs?


According to the International Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the chances are very likely for an apocalyptic future. There will be many consequences in 2100 if we do not stop global warming, both for our planet and for ourselves. The Earth’s oceans would increase by up to 1.8 meters, with all the ice melting and coral reefs would completely disappear in such a warm world. The Arctic ocean would be around 8 degrees celsius warmer by 2100, marking a devastating blow to the animals that live there. And though rainfall would increase by 6.8%, it won't be evenly spread out, turning the Mediterranean into a desert. Heatwaves will be 39 times more common compared to the 19th Century, and on average, the global temperature will be 40 degrees celsius around 7 days each year. Finally, extreme weather will no longer be ‘extreme’ given how often they will happen.


For humans, droughts will become more and more common in areas like Africa, Australia, Southern Europe, and the US, due to 14 times as many heat waves compared to now. And due to these droughts, it is estimated that the price of cereals would rise by 29%, putting 183 million people at further risk of hunger.


As the population grows, so will the technology, both to sustain us and develop a better world. Using technology that is present right now might even save endangered species. One such technology is cloning, which can bring back animals that used to live in the area but are now extinct.


In order to have a healthy and growing environment, it is important to have biodiversity and bio abundance. You can’t have too much of one thing, but must have enough of it as well. To do this, genome editing can change the genes of species that aren’t supporting the health of the ecosystem, by making them all males, so they can’t breed.


Though Earth has been our home for many millennials, there are a few distant alternatives. But those are very distant alternatives, so distant that most will take centuries to complete. Our first alternative; Terraforming Mars. Terraforming Mars means creating an atmosphere so we can breathe, planting trees, and bringing species to Mars. This will be possible, but will take a lot of infrastructure, resources, and technology to do this, and won’t be possible if humans cannot live on Earth anymore, while the planet is still not terraformed.


However, what if we use near-future technology to curb global warming sooner? For example, drones can help monitor forest health and detect illegal logging. Trees are carbon locks, storing away Co2 within trunks permanently, making forests play a very important part in the battle against global warming. Protecting these forests at times can be extremely expensive and difficult, making these drones very valuable, especially since it is a technology we already have. WRI (World Resources Institute) has developed a platform named Global Forest Watch (GFW). It is an online forest monitoring and alert system that uses crowdsourcing to allow anyone to create custom maps, study forest trends, or download data for their local area or the entire world.


Another technology we may use is thermal imaging. Animals are as important as forests, as they have a symbiotic relationship. Many animals are killed by poachers, who seek their fur, horns, or teeth to sell on the black market. Thermal imaging can help combat poaching. With overwhelming numbers of poachers, and not enough park rangers, Thermal cameras can help detect armed poachers, and deter others from ever trying.


Finally, AI. Artificial intelligence is useful in many ways, and it can play a huge role in protecting wildlife. In China, WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature) and tech-giant Intel are utilizing AI to help track wild tigers and their habitats in order to better protect them. Using this technology has helped protect countless other species as well.


In conclusion, overpopulation can lead to a very dystopian future. This, however, can be avoided as long as we take care of our planet. With so many dangerous and highly probable scenarios, it is essential for us to start taking measures to curb global warming. With our population increasing each year, leading us closer to 12 billion people, we have to act now in order to make sure earth is safe and intact for future generations.



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