Team

I will develop near-term iterative forecasting (NTIF) focused on trophic interactions in northern ecosystems. Inspired by the iterative process of weather forecasting models, the NTIF approach compiles spatio-temporal data as soon as acquired to produce predictions that are then confronted with newly collected data to quantify uncertainty and improve future forecasts. I will first focus on parasite-host relationship between winter ticks and moose in eastern Canada. I will produce predictions of the level of winter tick infestation and its effect on survival and recruitment of moose populations, integrating interactions between parasitism, climate, predation, hunting and host density. I will feed these models using a collaborative science program combined with data from the Research partnership on Tick-Moose-Climate interactions. The second ecosystem involves leaf-eating larvae of geometrid moths that cause high mortality of mountain birch trees in northern Norway. I will produce predictions of the effect of climate on egg development and hatching date of geometrids, which I will then compare with the bud burst date of the mountain birch to ultimately predict geometrid moth outbreaks. I will work on this chapter with collaborators at the Climate-ecological Observatory of Arctic Tundra at UiT the Arctic University of Norway, in Tromsø.