Team

The Arctic is experiencing severe and rapid climate change and, over the 21st century, these changes are expected to accelerate and cause major geophysical, ecological, social, and economic changes. Reindeer and caribou (Rangifer tarandus) have a circumpolar distribution and this species is the numerically dominant large herbivore in the Arctic. The increasing temperature in the Arctic may influence reindeer populations negatively through increased precipitation, extensive icing events during winter, changes in seasonality, changes in phenology and increased frequency of extreme weather events. Because changes in populations of caribou and reindeer will have significant socioeconomic consequences for northern indigenous culture, a better understanding of the combined effects of global warming on reindeer is needed. The overall aim of this research project is to expand the knowledge on how density-dependent factors and variation in climatic conditions affect population dynamics of reindeer. The project will thereby contribute to a sustainable development of reindeer husbandry in Norway, where ecological sustainability forms the basis for economic and cultural sustainability. The specific objectives of this research project are: 1) to develop a dynamic model evaluating the direct and indirect effects of reindeer density and climate on body mass, calf production, reproduction allocation, and herd population growth, 2) to evaluate the effects of the imposed herd size reductions in Norway in 2015 to see if the reductions have had any effects on calf recruitment, harvest, body mass, and losses of animals, and 3) to use the model developed in objective 1 to generate short-term predictions that will be evaluated against in data an iterative process (NTIF).