How to Win Presidential Election

The lesson is straight forward as it draws from simple observations of how these three personalities gained access to power and influence.

Kenyatta knew how to rally the natives against the white man. He talked tough about patriotism and pan Africanism, enough to keep the Whites subdued and the natives fanatical. This created a wedge between the two groups.

He then presented himself as the pragmatic person, consequently, managing to present himself as an acceptable pair of hands to both groups.

This way he avoided going the Mugabe way of land seizures, while still managing to convince the impoverished natives on the need to fight poverty through hard work – uhuru na kazi. BTW, the natives had been forced in to poverty by colonialism, as opposed to any supposed lethargy.

As a result the country gained political independence - and celebrated a new set of native colonialist in black skin - while retaining all the practices of the old. The masses continued being oppressed, there were political murders, the privileged minority continued to amass wealth.

A decade and half down the lane came Daniel Arap Moi. He can be said to have received his presidency on a silver platter, since the constitution allowed him to assume office without elections after the death of the incumbent while in office.

However, he soon realized the need to choose an opponent to help him consolidate his, initially, shaky presidency. The opportunity presented itself, by design or coincidence, through an attempted coup in 1982.

It is said that he chose not to have the plotters arrested despite having been advised by the intelligence apparatus. When they, eventually, struck it took less than a day to crush the mutiny, and with that he established his opponents.

From then on the opponents, in practice, were those who refused to worship him and his presidency. They were mostly from larger ethnic communities (who could mobilize block votes), ambitious (who harbored illusions of power) and intellectuals (who had opinions). For the rest of his rule these people were subdued by whatever means.

Thanks to an evolving populace that had started to realize the folly of putting their hope on personalities, a constitutional amendment - forced by donors - made sure he retired. This way Arap Moi could not afford the honor of dying in office out of old age.

In an effort to continue his rule through a proxy, he realized he needed the support of a majority ethnic block. One of the same groups he had demonized.

This back fired because Mwai Kibaki was at it. He had, after two futile attempts, discovered how to choose the opponent. This time Arap Moi fitted the bill. And it worked.

After ten years of Kibaki, the lesson is still the same. Despite his deviation from his predecessor’s largely autocratic approach, it still is a man eats man society. All the vices, and worse, of his predecessors - more corruption, poverty and marginalization.

The post 2007 elections violence was as a result of back fired ethnic arithmetic that had sought to identify an opponent and mobilize others against the opponent.

The new constitution seeks to change this kind of primitive mobilization of divide and rule to unite and empower. The challenge for the aspiring president is how to choose the opponent without upsetting the standards set by the new constitution.

Let us see how presidential wannabes make out of it.