Validity of the Push and Pull Hypothesis for the Explanation of Romanian Migration Flows

Journal of Social Research & Policy, Volume: 4, Issue: 1, pp. 93-108

Date: July 2013

ISSN: 2067-2640 (print), 2068-9861 (electronic)

Abstract: The article focuses on the migration phenomenon from Romania to the European Union and considers the key motivations which may have shaped the decision to migrate. The research was based on statistical data provided by Eurostat. The period which has been reviewed was from 1990 to 2010, and key indicators such as gross national product, average wage and unemployment levels were analyzed. We have tried to show the possible correlations between the migration flow and these various indicators, and for these reasons, the theoretical support we have used as a starting point for the analysis was the push and pull theory. The results are presented in an attempt to demonstrate the patterns that have arisen when studying the overall migration flow from Romania to the European Union. At the same time, we have analyzed separate migration flows; from Romania to three main countries - Italy, Spain and Germany. We have demonstrated that the push-pull model is not applicable for the general migration flow from Romania into other European countries, and that the numbers of migrants cannot be explained simply by national economic indicators, whether these indicators refer to the origin country of the migrant, or the destination country of the migration. On the other hand, the push and pull model seems to be partially applicable when analyzing the migration flow into separate, individual countries. The studied cases of Italy and Spain could be seen as successfully given examples in this respect.

Keywords: Migration; Push and Pull Theory; Time Series; Gross National Product; Average Wage; Unemployment.