Investments in Human Capital: Long-term Effects of Progresa-Oportunidades on Poverty and Migration in Rural Mexico

Abstract: This paper evaluates the effects on poverty reduction and migration of a conditional cash transfer program in Mexico named Oportunidades (previously Progresa). This program, the first in Latin America and the most imitated of its kind, was intended to increase human capital, which would eventually translate into poverty reduction. Linear and non-linear panel models are used to explore whether there are any such effects, and the implications for the effectiveness and evaluation strategies of the program. No significant effects of Progresa-Oportunidades in reducing income poverty or affecting international migration were found at the rural level. However, there is a weak effect in the case of domestic migration. As data continues to become available through Mexico's official Secretariat of Social Development, there will be more opportunities for further exploration of the relationship between this program, poverty alleviation, and migration outcomes. Limitations and further recommendations for this study are also discussed.

Keywords: Conditional Cash Transfers; Poverty; Migration; Mexico.