for discussion: pdf (2 MB), a preliminary version from April, to be updated (cf. major issues, 126 KB) during August 2018
Please check a pretty different modeling approach (Sibson's fault-valve model, with 'rupture' represented by a finite-length segment of 50x augmented diffusivity within the seal layer) developed by:
Fischer T, Matyskac C, Heinicke J (2017)
Earthquake-enhanced permeability – evidence from carbon dioxide release following the ML 3.5 earthquake in West Bohemia
EPSL, 460, 60–67
Further reading:
Muir-Wood R, King G C P (1993)
Hydrological signatures of earthquake strain
J Geophys Res, 98, 22035–22068
Sibson R H (1981)
Fluid flow accompanying faulting: field evidence and models
In: Simpson D W, Richards P G (eds), Earthquake Prediction: An International Review
In: Maurice Ewing Series, vol 4, AGU, Washington DC, 593–603
Sibson R H (1990)
Rupture nucleation on unfavorably oriented faults
BSSA, 80, 1580–1604
Sibson R H (1992)
Implications of fault-valve behavior for rupture nucleation and recurrence
Tectonophysics 211, 283–293
Sibson R H, Rowland J V (2003)
Stress, fluid pressure and structural permeability in seismogenic crust, North Island, New Zealand
Geophys J Int, 154, 584–594
Zhang S X, Zhang C, Zhang Y, et al (2015)
Recovering period of postseismic fluid pressure in fault valve
J Earth Sci, 26(4), 530–536