Progress Report on: 23 March 2012:
Index Number Theory
In my thesis work I want to estimate different indices by different methods
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Chapter 1
Stochastic approach to estimate Consumer price index and then Inflation
with their standard errors
I applied stochastic approach to estimate CPI and its Standard Error (and also inflation
and its SE). This chapter is completed. Work file is attached here
Chapter 2
Estimations are completed. Work file consists of methodology and results are attached
here. Your valuable comments are needed for further improvement. After your comments
I will start write up of this chapter.
Chapter 3:
I used six models (Logit1, Logit2, Logit3, Probit1, Probit2 and Probit3) to estimate
individual ability Index. First I compared the performance of these models by Monte
Carlo study and found that in any case Logit2 model perform better as compared to other
models. Then I applied this approach to real life data to estimate ability of individuals.
This paper was completed and sent to you. By following you suggestions I am converting
the write-up of this paper from educational to economic style. This will be completed
within few weeks Insha ALLAH.
Chapter 4 :
Estimations are completed. Work file consists of methodology and results are attached
here. Your valuable comments are needed for further improvement. After your comments
I will start write up of this chapter.
Bayesian Approach to estimate CPI and then Inflation for Pakistan
Statistical approach to Estimate ability Index
Bayesian Approach to estimate ability index.
Javed Iqbal
For Detail Please Visit My Home Page
I have attached your current research paper SE for Inflation Estimates of Pakistan (AZ)
Message from AZ
RESEARCH PROJECT: I have not found the time to spell this out. Attached is file with a writeup and some pre-course and post-course data on a simple MCQ. Let X(i,j) be answer to i-th question for j-th student pre-course, and Y(i,j) the post-course answer. If X is wrong and Y is right then there has been learning. Let theta(i,j) be the probability of a right answer. Theta is a measure of knowledge. Many types of hypothesis about theta can be stated and estimated on the basis of the data provided.
The current paper is written for a medical journal and highlights medical issues. I would like you to re-write this for an educational journal, highlighting the statistical, and epecially the empirical bayes aspects.
STUDY Goals: You should master Empirical/Hierarchical Bayes techniques. Read my book and prepare a PEDAGOGICAL paper, showing the three defects of the natural conjugate Bayes estimator and how empirical Bayes solves these defects. I hope to submit this paper to Journal of Economic Education (JEE)
I was working on two different papers, one is related with INDEX NUMBER THEORY UNDER STOCHASTIC APPROACH and the other is on "ESTIMATION OF COFFICIENT OF RELATIVE RISK AVERSION AND DISCOUNT FACTOR FOR PAKISTAN"
My first paper is almost completed which I am sending you, in this paper I estimate the standard error of inflation. Since State Bank of Pakistan pursue month on month, year on year and average inflation, so i estimate the standard errors of these measurements of inflation.
The second paper which was totally Bank's work, i estimated two very important coefficients ( Relative Risk Aversion and Discount Factor) for Pakistan economy. In this paper, I also calculated the biases of these estimators by using Monte Carlo Study. I will send this paper to you with in a week.