If you have a degree and no (or very little) debt, you win. ~ McNary Staff Member
Two Major Factors are Impacting Future College Financial Aid:
The enrollment cliff or birth dearth from the 2008/2009 recession. During those years, fewer babies were born, and therefore, there is a lower college going student population that arrives with the Class of 2026 and thereafter.
The Demographic Cliff Podcast Episode
Current federal administrative changes and priorities: Federal funding for college is a rapidly changing landscape.
Possible Federal Student Aid Changes - OPB May 2025
Given the above two concerns we might expect in the future:
Given the federal climate, we are seeing international students (many) choose other nations. This will be a major funding impact upon U.S. colleges who have international students on their campus. These students almost always pay full price to come to the United States to study. We are likely to see colleges need to drastically tighten their budgets and programs due to lack of enrollment by international students.
Colleges will increase their class sizes to increase their revenue. This could impact housing, class sizes, dorms etc.
Full pay students, students who do not have financial need, may have more college acceptances.
The number of colleges which are need blind may decrease. Need blind schools do not know your financial need in the admissions office when they choose whether to admit a student or not.
Colleges receiving the most National Inst. for Health and National Science Foundation funding may see the most cuts to their programs. For example, colleges and universities such as OSU will more likely be impacted more than a school like Willamette University.
There may be a decrease in graduate school admissions and enrollment.
More incentives may be offered for those who apply early admissions.
Colleges who normally use merit money, grade based money, to attract students to attend may increase merit awards as they must compete with colleges who are increasing their enrollment numbers.
Colleges may put more students on waitlists to create a cushion for their final enrollment numbers.
Some colleges who have a college goal of admitting Pell Grant eligible students may lower those Pell grant admittees as the college struggles to fund their education with higher need based aid money.
Families may have more leverage when they appeal their financial aid awards - if they built holistic college lists.
Predicting admissions and "who gets in and why" may get more complicated.
The percent of international students at U.S. colleges will decrease. As these students are often full pay, this will impact the financial health of colleges, especially small ones, but really every college.
Colleges and universities are very likely to cut programs and degrees and majors that are struggling.
More colleges will use programs or tools that offer direct admission such as SCOIR, Niche, The Common App, etc.
There will be increased pressure from schools for students to enroll and do so quickly.