A Changing Climate

Keep Scotland Beautiful produced a brief introduction to climate science as part of the sessions they ran with Tayvallich in late 2020. To view this you can click on the button below:

What is this ‘Climate Emergency’?

The future will be very challenging if you look at the climate projections modelled by the global scientific community.

If we continue to live life as we do today and don’t change our behaviours or actions, the global average temperatures on earth will rise 2-4 Degrees above pre-industrial levels in the 1900’s.

That might not sound like much, but that’s an average. In reality some parts of our home planet will be warmer and some parts might be colder than that. The poles for example could be 6-8 Degrees warmer and that would have a massive impact on the earth’s weather, the jet stream, the reflective capacity of the earth to bounce radiation back into space.

More frequent and heavier storm events, floods, droughts are expected. Some islands around the world will become uninhabitable as salt water rises and makes food impossible to grow and land to be submerged. Glacier melt rates will accelerate and nations dependent on them for fresh water may have to relocate to survive.

Forest fires like those recently in California and Australia will increase in frequency and size, and the melting of land-based ice from Greenland and Antarctica will change sea levels and could also alter deep ocean currents too.

The diagram below indicates the pace of change required. Put simply, we need to move from our ‘historical’ path on global emissions of greenhouse gases to zero. In Scotland our target set in law and approved by the Scottish Government is to achieve the necessary reductions in our country’s emissions by 2045.

By zero, scientists actually mean something called ‘Net-Zero’. This is because whilst we can stop burning coal, oil and petrol, we cannot yet fly without burning kerosene or grow food without applying fertilisers, or buy goods without some emissions to make and transport them. As such the future needs to include actions that compensate for these remaining emissions and find ways to balance to a true ‘Net-Zero’. In Scotland this will be done by planting more trees, repairing and restoring damage to peatlands, and even growing fuel crops to burn and capture the gasses which are then locked underground in old oil-gas fields in the North Sea.

Emissions previously and currently released into the atmosphere will change the climate even if we stop emitting tomorrow. As such Scotland and all other countries need to Adapt to changes in climate as well as Mitigating our emissions to minimise further changes.

If you wish to learn more about climate science you can participate in Keep Scotland Beautiful’s Climate Literacy courses, or look at other links from trusted sources such as:

• https://climate.nasa.gov

• https://tyndall.ac.uk

• https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/what-is-climate-change

• Those looking for a more advanced course could consider: https://www.edx.org/course/climate-change-the-science-and-global-impact

What’s this got to do with Tayvallich?

If we take census data from 2011 and include the general area then the population is about 260. UK average emissions per capita are currently 5.5tCO2e/person/year. So as a simple baseline, that’s 1,430 tonnes of CO2e per year, mainly from heating and powering homes, travelling by car, bus, train, boat or plane, managing our household waste, from what we eat and also from what we buy as goods and even services such as schools, hospitals, etc.

This doesn’t include emissions from land use, local industry, construction, tourism, and other sources such as refrigerant gases from car air-conditioning or shop freezers, etc. Nor from any wildfires or changes in marine environments.

The chart below shows the distribution of emissions by sector for the UK and the direction necessary for these sectors to get to zero:

All sectors need to reduce. For some this will be easier than others. Scotland has already made great progress in decarbonising the electricity generation network and also on reducing materials going to landfill that would break down and create Methane.

The two biggest carbon sectors in Scotland which have yet to show significant reduction in emissions are Heating and Transport. Because of this, the Scottish Government is encouraging a shift away from petrol and diesel cars, vans, buses, trains and lorries to electricity or hydrogen, and home energy efficiencies will need to increase to EPC-C rating or higher through shifts in the fuels we use for heating. Oil and gas to electricity (via heat pumps) and hydrogen.

Everyone in Tayvallich eats, we all heat our homes, many of us drive cars and most households fill their bins each week for the council to whisk away and do something with.

A new story. A Net-Zero Lifestyle

Our challenge is to write a new story for Tayvallich. One full of hope and positive outcomes. Of benefits far and wide, and of life yet to be created and its capacity to flourish on our beautiful blue planet we call home.

This story needs enacted and to become reality and very quickly. This isn’t a plan for future generations, but for ‘us’. The people who live and work here today. This is our plan.

Tayvallich is not alone. Many other communities are taking action too, writing their own plans, finding local solutions. Together a proud and ambitious low-carbon Scotland is emerging. Scotland can harness the offshore winds, capture sunshine through solar panels, switch to electric transport, adapt diets (and improve our health statistics too!), waste less, shop smarter, and so on.

Tayvallich are one of the leading communities asking what it can do, how to transition to a fossil-fuel free future.

Acting on climate change has multiple benefits. It also helps with improving health, wellbeing, creates jobs, provides opportunities to learn new skills, and should make Tayvallich an even greater place to live and to bring the next generation up in.