יום ב' 19.8.2024 + יום ג' 20.8.2024
16:00 - 09:00
המפגש יתקיים בבניין המדרגה, חדר 4041
על המשתתפים להגיע עם מחשב אישי (מוגבל ל־15 משתתפים)
Traditional statistical methods often leave researchers wrestling with ambiguity, struggling to translate limited information into insights and conclusions. Enter Bayesian statistics: a statistical framework that lets you speak the language of probabilities, make decisions even with limited data, and confidently navigate uncertainty.
Join me on a 2-day (12 hour) research-focused workshop, where together we’ll delve into the practical and theoretical foundations of Bayesian methods, using the powerful {brms} package in R.
You’ll learn to:
Formalize your research hypotheses as prior distributions.
Integrate your data seamlessly, updating your priors and generating evidence-based posteriors.
Move beyond null hypothesis testing and embrace uncertainty quantification, revealing the full spectrum of possibilities your data supports.
Tackle complex research challenges with flexible models.
Graduate students and faculty: join us to unlock the transformative power of Bayesian statistics. Enhance your research toolbox, craft compelling arguments, and publish impactful findings – all while embracing the nuanced language of probabilities.
Prerequisites: Familiarity with R - model fitting (lm, glm, (g) lmer), data tidying with the {tidyverse} building figures with {ggplot2}.
I encourage you to BYOD: Bring Your Own Data - put theory into practice.
Day 1: Laying the Foundations
Intro:
What is a Bayesian probability?
Why Bayes?
The Bayesian workflow
Applying the Bayesian workflow in R with {brms}
Posterior characterization ({bayestestR}) and visualization ({ggdist})
BYOD
Day 2: Decision Making
MCMC convergence diagnostics
Assessing model fit w/ PPC
Posterior based decision making
Model comparisons
WAIC
The Bayes factor (finally!)
BYOD
Recommended Reading
[book] Gelman et al. (2021). Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd ed). http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/book/
[book] Kruschke, J. (2014). Doing Bayesian data analysis: A tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan. https://sites.google.com/site/doingbayesiandataanalysis/
Code translation to brms and the tidyverse https://bookdown.org/content/3686
Makowski et al. (2019). Indices of effect existence and significance in the Bayesian framework. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02767
Rouder et al. (2018). Bayesian inference for psychology, part IV: Parameter estimation and Bayes factors. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1420-7
van de Schoot, et al. (2021). Bayesian statistics and modelling. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43586-021-00017-2
Wagenmakers et al. (2018). Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I: Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-017-1343-3
הרשמה סדנאות שנת תשפ"ד