Neo-Malthusians argue that population is outstripping resources, but others do not agree.
The demographic transition may display a possible stage 5 of population decline.
Birth rates have declined through the use of two strategies.
Geographic concepts offer insights into future population and health trends. In view of the current size of Earth’s population and the NIR, will there soon be too many of us? Or will Earth’s total population stabilize and even decline in the future?
IV. Key Issue 4: Why Might Population Change in the Future?
A. Population Futures*
Possible Demographic Transition Stage 5
a. very low CBR
b. increasing CDR
c. declining NIR
2. China & India
a. Policies
i. pronatalist—government policies that support higher birth rates
ii. antinatalist—policy that supports lower birth rates
b. China’s population policies
c. India’s population policies
B. Family Futures*
Lowering CBR through Education & Health Care
2. Lowering CBR though Contraception
C. Epidemiologic Futures*
Reason for Possible Stage 5: Evolution—disease microbes becoming resistant to antibiotics,
new strains of viruses and bacteria
2. Reason for Possible Stage 5: Poverty—diseases more prevalent in poor areas
3. Reason for Possible Stage 5: Increased Connections—spread of disease through relocation
diffusion
D. Population & Resources
Thomas Malthus—claimed rate of population growth increase was greater than the food
supply
2. Neo-Malthusians—world population growth is outstripping a wide variety of resources (food,
water, and energy)
3. Neo-Malthusians & Critics
a. food production increasing
b. population growth slower than Malthus
*indicates information specific to the text and is not in the AP Human Geography course
**indicates information is background or foundational to building further understanding and development
Key Issue 4: Why Might Population Change in the Future?
Population Futures
Geographers and other researchers seek to project the future population and health trends. The United Nations estimates that the world population in 2100 could grow to 11.2 billion or decline to 7.2 billion.
Possible Demographic Transition Stage 5 A possible stage 5 of the demographic transition is predicted by demographers for some developed countries. Stage 5 would be characterized by very low CBR, an increasing CDR and, therefore, a negative NIR. The population of a country in stage 5 of the demographic transition would be much older.
China & India China and India together include more than one-third of the world’s total population. As the world’s two most populous countries, policies instituted in China and India will affect prospects for global overpopulation. Current projections predict that India may surpass China as the world’s most populous country. In the past, both China and India have implemented antinatalist policies. An antinatalist policy supports lower birth rates, a pronatalist policy supports higher birth rates.
China’s Population Policies The core of the Chinese government’s family-planning program has been the One Child Policy, adopted in 1980. Couples in China receive financial subsidies, a long maternity leave, better housing, and (in rural areas) more land if they agreed to have just one child Since 2000, China and the United
States have had the same CBR. The number of people added to China’s population each year has dropped by one-half, from 14 million to 7 million, during the past four decades. The United Nations forecasts that in 2100
China’s population will decrease. The government has relaxed the One Child Policy but China’s CBR is not likely to dramatically increase due to three decades of intensive educational programs.
India’s Population Policies India became the first country to embark on a national family-planning program. The government spends several hundred million dollars annually on various family-planning programs including the distribution of birth-control devices and abortions. India’s most controversial familyplanning program was the establishment of sterilization camps. A sterilized person was entitled to payment, which was roughly equivalent to a person’s monthly income. People were opposed to the sterilization camps because they thought that eventually sterilization would be forced.
Family Futures The world CBR steeply declined between 1990 and 2015, from 27 to 20. In developing countries during the same time period, CBR dropped from 31 to 22. Two strategies have been successful in lowering birth rates: education and health care and the availability of contraception.
Lowering CBR through Education & Health Care Improving local economic conditions is one approach to decreasing crude birth rates. A community with more economic resources can increase expenditures on education and health-care programs that promote lower birth rates. According to this approach, women’s educational opportunities are encouraged, making them more likely to gain employment skills and take economic control over their lives. Women would also have knowledge of their reproductive rights, letting them make more informed reproductive choices, and an increased awareness of available methods of contraception. Improved health-care programs, such as prenatal care, counseling about sexually transmitted diseases, and child immunization, lead IMRs to decline. With the survival of more infants ensured, women would be more likely to choose to make more effective use of contraceptives to limit the number of children.
Lowering CBR through Contraception Short-term solutions included in family-planning programs, such as contraception, can reduce crude birth rates much more quickly than prolonged economic shifts. Demand outstrips supply for contraceptives where they are needed most – in developing countries. Places where people have limited access to education and modern communication have experienced success in the diffusion of family-planning options. For example, in Bangladesh, 6 percent of married women used contraceptives in 1980 – in 2014, the number rose to 62 percent. Similar trends have occurred in Colombia, Morocco, and Thailand. Contraceptive use is very low in sub-Saharan Africa because of the reluctance of men to use them. The distribution of contraceptives in sub-Saharan Africa could have a relatively large impact on lowering CBR in the region.
Epidemiologic Futures While the possible stage 5 of the demographic transition is characterized by an increased elderly population, a theoretical stage 5 of the epidemiologic transition could occur through the reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases. Three reasons help explain the possible emergence of a stage 5 of the epidemiologic transition: evolution, poverty, and increased connections.
Reason for Possible Stage 5: Evolution In a possible stage 5, infectious diseases thought to have been eradicated or controlled return, and new ones emerge. Infectious disease microbes have continually evolved and changed in response to environmental pressures by developing resistance to drugs and insecticides. Antibiotics and genetic engineering contribute to the emergence of new strains of viruses and bacteria.
Reason for Possible Stage 5: Poverty Infectious diseases are more prevalent in poor areas than other places because unsanitary conditions may persist, and most people are unable to afford drugs needed for treatment. Tuberculosis is an example of an infectious disease that has largely been controlled in developed countries but remains a major cause of death in developing countries. Tuberculosis is more prevalent in poor areas because the long, expensive treatment poses a significant economic burden.
Reason for Possible Stage 5: Increased Connections As they travel, people carry diseases with them and are exposed to the diseases of others.
AIDS The most lethal pandemic in recent years has been AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome). 39 million people have died worldwide since the beginning of the epidemic through 2017, and 37 million people currently have HIV (human immunodeficiency virus, the cause of AIDS). 26 million of the world’s 37 million HIV-positive people live in sub-Saharan Africa.
Population & Resources English economist Thomas Malthus was one of the first to predict that population increases would soon outpace the development of food resources, leading to a dramatic crisis as a result of the strain on resources. Malthus claimed that the populations grow geometrically, while food supply increases arithmetically. England entered stage 2 of the demographic transition several decades before Malthus stated these conclusions. Malthus posited that the only thing to prevent a “Malthusian” crisis would be a country’s population following “moral restraint,” lowering CBRs (unless disease, famine, war, or other disasters produced higher CDRs).
Neo-Malthusians Malthus’s views remain influential today. Supporters of Malthus’s model suggest that characteristics of recent population growth pose even greater risks than when Malthus developed his thesis more than 200 years ago. In some countries in stage 2 of the demographic transition, the gap between population and resources is wide than Malthus predicted. Future shortages of food, water, and energy are predicted by the Neo-Malthusians.
Neo-Malthusians & Critics Some argue that carrying capacity in terms of food production has increased more rapidly than Malthus expected. Advances in technology and agricultural techniques have increased the food supply. But in other areas such as Africa, population growth may have exceeded the carrying capacity of the land.
2.4
Antinatalist policies when a country provides incentives for people to have fewer children (sometimes including punishments)