Dominic Amodio, Olivia Mendoza, Sanjeeta Neupane, Nathan Von Gnechten
Moving forward, we should keep the following in mind:
Economic opportunities are a large pull factor for immigration to cities.
Housing costs are a large push factor for emigration out of cities.
People with mid-to-low household-income prefer to settle near major urban areas, especially those with accessible transportation connections to job opportunities.
Historical settlement trends can be seen in neighborhoods today, whether they are a result of policy, discrimination, or both.
When planning for social housing it is important to consider the people who will be living there, where they are coming from, and why they came here.
Since emerging in Africa some 200,000 years ago, humans have managed to inhabit just about anywhere they could. As people began to settle more permanently, they would take up more established dwellings. These have included Ephemeral, Episodic, Periodic, Seasonal, Semi-permanent, and finally permanent dwellings.
History and migration are intrinsically linked in the way they influence each other. A place’s history, be it culturally or the shape of its environment, begins and changes with the migration of people. On the other hand, historical events including disasters, conflict, and famine, influence the migration of people. The push and pull factors which bring migrants to a country, region, or city can be examined in the context of history preceding or succeeding.
Global Factors of Migration
Founding - Pre WW2
Phoenix was founded in 1868 by Jack Swilling and was originally a small agricultural town making use of the ancient irrigation canals dug out by the Hohokam. In 1895 railroad construction brought people of all nationalities to the city. In the 1920s Phoenix saw a large influx of African Americans and Asians. When the Great Depression hit Phoenix all housing development stalled throwing Phoenix into its first housing crisis. Phoenix was able to bounce back by taking advantage of various New Deal federally funded programs allowing Phoenix to rapidly expand.
Map of the Hokoham irrigation canals that allowed Phoenix to be a thriving agricultural community
WW2 - Today
Phoenix was able to continue growing during World War 2 as the city was the recipient of several military contracts. Once the war ended those contracts dried up leaving Phoenix in a small recession. During the 1950s Phoenix began experiencing rapid growth once again as air conditioning became widely available and the combination of healthy climate and natural beauty became strong pull factors. Phoenix's economy soon bounced back as well when increased defensive spending revived four military air fields located in the valley and private enterprises began to grow. Phoenix continued to expand as cheap land on the outskirts and an aggressive pro-annexation agenda gave way to the massive sprawl of subdivisions still seen in Phoenix today.
Phoenix experienced record migration during the pandemic. The city was the second fastest growing metro area in the country with many of its new residents coming from Los Angeles. This large influx of residents has effected rental rates with an 80% increase in rent in the metro Phoenix area between 2016 - 2021.
As shown here in the two maps, there is a strong connection between the highest percentage of cost burdened households (paying over 30% of their income towards rent) and a low percentage of white alone (not Hispanic) populations.
Los Angeles was founded by the Spanish in 1781. By 1846 the poplation of Los Angeles was 2,000 with a total population of 8,000 in LA County. The contruction of the railroad in 1870 made traveling to LA more accessible and affordable. Strong economic pull factors including the California gold rush and oil boom led many to flock to the city. Post World War 2 the development of tract housing and federally funded highway programs shaped the city of Los Angeles as it is today.
Migration Trends
California as a whole as seen a population decline due to lower international migration, lower birth rates, and increases in inter-state migration. 37% of Californians have considered leaving the state because of housing costs.
The city of Los Angeles and L.A. County both have a majority of their residential zoning as single-family, 74% and 76% respectively.
Characteristics of Los Angeles
As shown in the maps above the majority of the wealthy white population lives on the outskirts while poorer minorities inhabit the central part of the city. Another important takeaway from the maps is the lack mid-tier and most affordable rentals in the area. There is a large disconnect between household income and affordable housing
L.A. is currently facing a housing affordability crisis with just under a million household unable to live in a standard-size market-rate unit in their current neighborhood without creating a substantial financial burden.
Despite adding significantly more housing than other peer cities the affordability gap continues to grow in Los Angeles
Racial Segregation
Municipalities with the highest percentage of single-family-only zoned residential areas had the highest percentage of white residents and the lowest percentage of Black and Latino residents.
Founding - Pre Independence
Serving as the center of the Aztec empire and New Spain, Mexico City has a very long and rich history of migration dating back to the 14th century. A political, cultural, and economic hub since its settlement, Mexico City has continuously attracted domestic migrants consisting of leaders, skilled laborers, and those looking for economic opportunity. This constant influx of rural-to-urban migration would create a vibrant and wealthy city center, with impoverished workers settling on the city's outskirts.
Post Independence
While the war for independence would affect Mexico City's built environment little, one of its largest shifts would occur shortly after with the election of Benito Juárez in 1858. Many of the church-held estates in the city would be confiscated and repurposed, with much being turned into housing for the working poor. The city would soon experience a large influx of domestic migration as the industrial revolution began, with elites of the city moving to the west side. In their absence, low-income families began to take up the deteriorating mansions of the city's downtown and east side, subdividing and repurposing them for multi-family housing and businesses.
In the midst of the Latin American Debt Crisis of the 1980s, Mexico City would see large amounts of factory closures and layoffs. In 1985, a severe earthquake would kill an estimated 10,000 people, with many of the deaths occurring in government-built housing. Around this time, Mexico would begin to take up more neoliberal economic policies, giving greater power and influence to the private sector. With a growth in imports, tourism, the service sector, and recent events, many began to see Mexico City less as a place of opportunity, and more as a place of corruption, crime, pollution, and overcrowding. All of these colluding factors would lead to the city having migration rates lower than estimated projections.
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