by Dave Zornow
Published in the Cynopsis:Weekender, 1/25/20/07
The stakes are big and both sides have been gearing up for this battle for months. And in a few weeks, the months of strategizing, practicing and performing under pressure will be put to a test. It’s not Chicago vs. Indianapolis in Miami but Sinclair vs. Mediacom in Nashville, Des Moines, Madison and Milwaukee. These are some of the other DMAs where Sinclair has dropped its stations from Mediacom’s cable systems.
Janice Finkel-Greene predicts it will be all over by Feb 1 – if not sooner. “They can’t do this during a sweep – there’s just too much to lose,” says Finkel-Greene, executive vice president of local broadcast strategy at Initiative. Greene says Sinclair has strategically picked this fight to occur before the February sweeps in markets without electronic measurement or where Mediacom doesn’t have enough subscribers to impact overnight ratings. She says the repercussions of continuing this fight in a sweep month would be far greater.
According to agencies, Sinclair is offering discounts of 30-40% during the blackout to make up for the lost coverage. “We are reducing our rating estimates by the potential loss of coverage,” says Finkel-Greene.
Both teams in this contest have a well balanced offense and a strong defense. Sinclair has been offering Mediacom subs $100 to switch to DirecTV; Mediacom has been distributing free retro-TV rabbit ears for their Sinclair signal-less subs. The Iowa Congressional delegation has written to both parties encouraging them to submit to binding arbitration (Mediacom said yes, Sinclair said no).
It’s a battle of two entrenched competitors staged far away from the New York and Los Angeles media spotlight with implications for broadcasters, cable MSOs and consumers everywhere. Despite consumers’ frustrations, it remains to be seen how many are devoted enough to Sinclair stations to switch to DirecTV for their favorite shows, many of which may also be available on other channels, too. Although Sinclair may have picked the right time and the right places to confront cable, it may backfire over the long term if consumers find they can live without Sinclair’s signals and end up changing their TV viewing habits to make due with the programming on the hundreds of other channels still available on their cable systems. ##
Dave Zornow is President/TNG Research, a media research consultancy and applications development company that works with media sellers and research providers.
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