by Dave Zornow
Published in Cynopsis:Weekender newsletter, September 27, 2007
In 1989, a full-page ad from Control Data declared “Ready, Fire…Aim” to tell Wall Street how the computer supplier would respond to a rapidly evolving market. In hindsight, these ads were also a tacit admission that change often happens faster than companies’ ability to plan for it.
Last week, TV Week and the Cable Advertising Bureau hosted a session of industry leaders as the network television business prepares for its first season of new “C3” commercial ratings data. In addition to widespread industry self-congratulation, there was also an undercurrent of uncertainty about what the future will really bring.
The new ratings source uses live viewing and three days of DVR playback to measure commercial breaks replacing almost 60 years of existing ratings currency. “When you break the time continuum, it is an invitation for chaos,” says The Weather Channel’s Ned Greenberg, paraphrasing the Doc Brown character in Back to the Future.
Without a real-life flux-capacitor, the “C” in C3 might end up standing for Chaos, but the industry is resigned to a bumpy ride as media measurement transitions to the non-linear new world of DVR playback and VOD.
CAB President Sean Cunningham noted that in a year’s time, cable has moved from a “wait and see” position on the sidelines to co-hosting a conference on the subject. Cunningham cautioned that the work wasn’t over, yet. “We shouldn’t break our arms patting ourselves on the back. This is a just one stop on the path to the ultimate goal of accountability.”
Panelists were unanimous in endorsing the change but shared concerns about whether the pieces were in place to support business as usual. Reoccurring issues reported by third party processors concerning erroneous duplicate test data were dismissed by Nielsen as a “formatting problem” which will be resolved by the time the new C3 data goes live. Turner’s Jack Wakshlag expressed frustration about having to wait three weeks to receive data to steward buys with the new commercial currency, saying use of
C3 data justified a wider window for sellers to make good when audience delivery falls short.
What remains to be seen is how these changes will deliver on advertisers’ stated goals of increased ROI and greater accountability. Because commercial ratings are generally lower than the program ratings they will replace, there will be fewer ratings points available to sell.
OK, pencils down. If supply decreases and demand remains constant, what did we learn in Econ 101 about how this will affect pricing? ##
Dave Zornow is President of TNG Research, a media research consultancy and applications development company that works with media sellers and research providers.
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