by Dave Zornow
Published in Cable Avails magazine, May 1993
The need for syndicated spot cable measurement has increased as more agencies and advertisers place buys and demand proof of audience delivery. Arbitron and Nielsen use a combination of paper diaries and electronic measurement in the top markets to capture demographic and household viewing with the remainder of the country only using the diary. With the exception of a handful of Arbitron local people meter markets, this system has seen few changes since the introduction of the household meter.
The initials MTV, VCR and PPV were years away from definition when the American Ratings Bureau (Arbitron's ancestor) conducted its first sweep survey in 1959. Since the dawn of the diary, the number of channels available to the average home has increased more than tenfold. The increased variety of viewing choices has made life difficult for both broadcasters and survey respondents; broadcasters have to compete against cable, VCRs and video games; survey respondents have to keep track of it all.
Last month we took a look at the sweeps, and how broadcasters' special programming and promotion during November, February, May and July can lower cable ratings by as much as 35 percent. But special activities designed to hype ratings aren't the only problem with the ratings system. Cable's rating is limited by the predominant survey research instrument, the diary.
The TV diary was born when television was simpler and the viewing choices were as limited as the colors on TV itself. Diary keepers wrote down what they watched -- or more likely, what they recalled watching. With the average household now receiving more than 30 channels, cable and independents suffer under diary measurement because respondents are less likely to remember their programming than higher-profile network fare. This problem of accurately capturing what viewers watch and when they watch it is solved by electronic measurement. The meter automates the task of collecting set tuning, although it can't guarantee that respondents are faithfully pushing their buttons in households equipped with people meters.
To get an idea of how cable fares in the diary, we analyzed two parallel sources which use different methodologies. Nielsen's diary-based county coverage study was compared to people meter estimates for four quarters (1st quarter 92 and 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter 91). Total national viewing in county coverage was matched up to the equivalent dayparts in the NHI study for 16 networks and 11 dayparts. Overall, this analysis showed diary-based cable ratings to be substantially lower than meter estimates, with the diary understating cable viewing by 15 percent or more for almost nine of ten networks/daypart combinations.
The diary does its best job capturing weekend viewing, with Saturday morning meter-reported viewing only 4% higher than the diary. Sunday morning viewing is 25% higher on the meter, followed by Saturday afternoon (40%) and Sunday afternoon (44%). For individual networks in these dayparts, the diary is very close to the household estimates derived from Nielsen's people meter for many networks such as USA, where Sunday afternoon 1p-8p is within 1% of the people meter. There are even some instances where diary keepers write down more viewing than actually occurred. For example, CNN Sunday afternoon TV HH diary-based viewing is 30% higher than the people meter.
But in the majority of cases, the diary doesn't do cable any favors. For example, the meter ratings for total day/7a-1a are 65% higher than estimates reported in the diary. Prime time meter viewing is 40% higher on the meter and daytime (10a-4:30p) differs by 82%. The closest weekday daypart is 6p - 7:30p with meter estimates 39% higher than diary ratings. Viewing in late fringe (11:30p-1a) is 145% higher with electronic measurement. In this daypart, the meter/diary difference ranges from a low of 90% for CNN to a high of 285% for VH-1.
Individual networks can suffer under diary measurement more than cable as a whole. Because TV viewing is program driven; networks without clearly defined program segments (The Weather Channel, VH-1, etc.) don't have the same impact and salience as premiere movies on USA, TNT and Lifetime. But just because viewers can't remember what they watched, it doesn't mean they're not watching. Meter-based ratings are174% higher for VH-1 and 120% higher for The Weather Channel. MTV is next at 112%, followed by Discovery (74%), A&E (49%) and ESPN (47%). CNN is the network least impacted (43% higher on the meter), but Headline is understated by 111% creating doubts about the ability of diary keepers to distinguish which all-news network they are watching.
The ratings services are aware of the diary's shortcomings and they have made a consistent effort to correct it's deficiencies through improved design and increased respondent premiums. "It's not news that diaries need improvement, however, affordable ideas haven't been very plentiful until recently," says Jim Peacock, Arbitron's Director of Research. Peacock looks to new technologies as a long term fix to improve the measurement of spot cable. Arbitron is now testing a portable passive device which could recognize programming without any action on the part of the respondent. Survey participants would carry or wear this device which would identify TV and radio programming by an encoded audio signal. "Because production costs for this device will be lower than current meters, larger samples will be possible," says Peacock. Nielsen Media Research and the startup venture MicroMeter are also testing various passive household and portable technologies.
Although new technology provides hope for the future, the diary will probably be with us for a long time due to the economics of survey costs and ad revenue in smaller markets. And as long as it is, spot cable will continue to get a smaller than deserved piece of the $15 billion yearly spot TV pie. ##
Dave Zornow is President/TNG Research, a media research consultancy and applications development company that works with media sellers and research providers.
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