XIII Workshop of the Probability and Statistics group

CIDMA & Dmat - University of Aveiro

Talk 1

Speaker: Soraia Pereira - Department of Mathematics, University of Minho

Title of the talk: A Beta-Beta prime model for rates and their precision for small area estimation

Abstract: Statistical bureaus worldwide face an increasing need to produce reliable estimates of economic and social indicators, such as proportions or rates, from socioeconomic survey data at small area levels. However, due to relatively small sample sizes in these areas or domains, it is difficult to achieve acceptable accuracy without using model-based approaches. In this work, we propose modeling the direct estimator of rates or proportions in small domains as Beta-distributed, while simultaneously modeling the sampling precision estimator via a Beta prime distribution. A study using real data demonstrates that jointly modeling both the direct estimator and its sampling precision provides additional gains in estimation accuracy. We also illustrate the approach by estimating a food insecurity index for small areas of a Brazilian state.

Soraia Pereira is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Minho and a member of both CEAUL and CMAT. Her research interests include spatial statistics, Bayesian statistics, statistical modeling, and data analysis. She has published in leading international journals, focusing on both methodological developments and applied collaborations in environmental, ecological, health, and socio-economic contexts.

ORCID: 0000-0002-7336-1320

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