Talk 3

One Day Meeting on Advanced Statistics Topics

CIDMA- University of Aveiro

Speaker: Mónica Rodrigues - Universidade de Aveiro

Title of the talk: Risk analysis in forest activity

Abstract: At present, forestry activity and its associated productivity chain play a fundamental role in Portugal's economy, making it imperative to formulate supporting strategies and instruments. This study considers the forest productivity indicator, the "Average Annual Increment in Volume," which underpins various decision-making processes in forest planning and management, such as determining the age of harvesting, selecting silvicultural models, and forest exploitation. The modelling of forest productivity is based on measurements that reflect the average conditions during the measurement period. Climate change and other events, directly or indirectly related to these changes, such as an increase in pest occurrence, diseases, and fire risks, result in greater uncertainty in obtaining productivity estimates and in forest decision-making.

In this study, our aim is to analyse how the risk and uncertainty associated with the occurrence of one of the most damaging pests to eucalyptus stands, the eucalyptus weevil, may affect forest productivity estimates in regions with different risk levels, ranging from low to very high. During the development of this research and with the goal of implementing a model capable of addressing the issue, we conducted a multiple linear regression analysis, including the use of dummy variables. The analysis of the constructed model allowed us to detect the presence of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the residuals. Faced with this issue, it was necessary to employ appropriate statistical methods, including robust regression methods such as robust multiple linear regression and methods based on consistent estimators in the presence of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation.

Mónica Rodrigues holds a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from the University of Aveiro and a Master's degree in Mathematics and Applications (2018), specializing in Statistics and Optimization, also from the same university.

She began her research journey in the field of mobility and transportation in 2018 when she joined the TEMA Research Unit - Center for Mechanics, Technology, and Automation at the University of Aveiro. As a research fellow, she has been involved in the InFLOWence project – Optimizing the influence of connected and autonomous vehicles on the environmental efficiency of road traffic flows and the INTERREG CISMOB project – Cooperative information platform for low carbon and sustainable mobility.

In 2022, she started her doctoral program in Energy Systems and Climate Change, offered by the University of Aveiro, with a Ph.D. plan titled "Decision Support System for assessing the costs and risks of connected and automated vehicles as mobility services in urban contexts."

ORCID: 0000-0002-9620-9313

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