Change point model (Section 11.4)

WinBUGS code ChangePoint.odc

ChanePoint

Posterior means, posterior standard deviations and 95% credible intervals (Inference->Samples->stats)

Sample path (history)

Posterior probability densities (Inference->Samples->density)

(Further, right click on the figure->Margins-> Special…->Smooth -> change from 0.2 to 0.1-> apply all)

Sample autocorrelation function (Inference->Samples->auto corr)

Running quantile plot (Inference->Samples->quantiles)

Scatter plots (Inference->Correlations…)

Boxplot of mu (Inference->Compare-> node: mu and click on “boxplot”)

(Further, right-click on the figure and Properties-> Titles-> x-axis:year)