Rediculusly large 30% for the day 4 SPC outlook ahead of the anticipated tornado outbreak. Somehow the Day 4 looks like this yet we all still wind up on the same storm...
All sorts of items packed against the wall of our dining room since I had just moved back from my first year of college up in Iowa on May 16th.
My morning hand analysis of the setup for the 18th as I gear up mentally for a big solo chase.
I'm at home! After a long 11 months, I'm finally chasing another Kansas setup. Sunny but ominous skies loom overhead as the low level jet hauls low cumulus clouds northward.
Monitoring the situation and latest trends in Junction City, KS around 1 pm before making a commitment on which zone of initiation to target.
1:15 pm radar reflectivity of storms firing in northern and Central Kansas with a rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" (PDS) watch now in effect.
1:55 pm radar data of the now tornado-warned supercell I am targeting.
I drive through areas that were obviously hit by significant tornadoes at some point through the past countless years. Happens quite often driving through Tornado Alley!
Skies ahead darken as I am now under the storm's anvil as I approach from the east/ headed towards Bennington, KS.
View west from near Bennington, KS towards the distant supercell's updraft region.
Looking northeast from the same spot at the anvil blowing northeastward.
Zoomed in view of the updraft in the distant haze.
2:22 radar of the intensifying supercell before reposiotioning.
Multiple chasers now on the scene after I reposition closer to the town of Minneapolis, KS
Looking west/northwest, the storm's updraft, base, and wall cloud are visible.
2:40 pm radar reflectivity and velocity of the storm.
Impessive wall cloud and lowering as the supercell's mesocyclone begins to cross Highway 81.
Everyone you can imagine begins closing in on the storm as it ramps up, including many well-known chasers/vehicles; the Dominator 3, TIV, NOAA, OU, and more.
Incredible cinnabun funnel begins churning rapidly over the highway. I thought for sure a tornado was about to drop right here.
Looking north as the meso passes us by, moving from left frame to right frame.
Absulutely rediculous wall cloud looking northeast from the highway through the storm's Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD) while heading north. I though it was about to drop a wedge.
Absolutely stressful chaser convergence ensues headed north on Highway 81 before we can turn east on Highway 24 towards Miltonville, KS.
Awesome view of the tonadic supercell's updraft from behind as I play catch-up.
3:30 pm radar, I notice a new supercell to the southwest as well as pre-frontal attempts to the far east. To give myself multiple options and take a break from the chaser convergence, I opt to leave the current supercell in Clay Center, KS, a mistake as it is about to produce a tornado despite the supercell appearing to weaken.
Pre-frontal updraft exploding to the southeast.
I sit east of Clay Center for a while awaiting the new storms and enjoying scenery. View to the southwest.
4:12 pm radar of the now tornado-warned supercell with a reported funnel.
I reposition to a neaby feild north of town to watch the supercell and potentially developing tornado. A wall cloud hangs low as tornado sirens blast in Clay Center.
Wall cloud continues to push off to the northeast.
4:32 radar of the storm passing to my northwest.
Repositioning to get back into position and keep with the storm.
After finnaly arriving to a main highway in Randolph, KS, I head north to intercept the supercell again. Velocity begins looking very impressive and I anticipate a significant tornado.
Wicked RFD clear slot as I arrive on the supercell again in Cottage Hill, KS.
Ominous scud clouds looking east from under the meso
View to the northeast as a tornado is getting ready to develop, but the rain from the wet RFD shrouds my view, and I begin taking intense wind gusts.
5:20 pm radar with my positon marked as I leave and head north to follow the developing tornado east into Blue Rapids, KS.
Passing through Blue Rapids, I see a few small limbs and sticks down, but thankfully it seems the town was spared a direct hit.
5:32 radar correlation coefficient (left) and velocity (right) with a blue "debris ball" appearing in tandem with the rotaition signature on velocity, indicating a tornado on the ground just to my northeast.
As I leave Blue Rapids headed east on Highway 77 over the bridge, authorities zip past us and block k-9 at the k-9 and Hwy 77 junction in order to protect motorists from the tornado. Many chasers would obey resposibly, either turning around or going north, but unfortunately, others in the area would not be as wise, attempting to ignore road closures, resulting in a physical conflict between a well-known chaser and a fireman.
Radar as the tornado continues off to the east and becomes increasingly wrapped in rain.
After getting gas in Marysville, KS, I move east to follow the storm. Here is the anvil and mammatus looking north and west.
View eastward of the retreating downdraft.
Now further east to cover the approaching squall line portion of the event.
7:49 pm radar near of the squall line reaching my position in Robinson, KS
View northeast under the whale's mouth.
Looking southeast to the bulging, most severe portion of the line passing to my south after producing a tornado near Dover, KS within the last hour.
I come across a downed limb blocking the road in Severance, KS, after moving the limb as much as I could, I make a spotter report and continue south to find a route out of the area.
While rolling south on 7 towards Atchison, KS, I encounter another road block, I presumed the issue was a downed tree, and after some waiting to see if the situation changed, I make another report and look for an alternative route.
Heavy rain while moving east into St. Joeseph, MO.