Intimidating Day 4 30% SPC outlook risk for May 21, including my home town.Â
Forecast models show PDS TOR soundings near the Kansas City metro for the afternoon of the 21st.
I wake up to see my town on the edge of the 10% hatched tornado risk with a Moderate Risk just miles to our north, expecting an outbreak of tornadoes from a "string of pearls" arc of supercells looking to initiate from 2-3pm. It will be a race against time to catch them with school.
I squirm in my seat as supercell initiation begins minutes before school lets out, with the cell to the north becoming severe and pumping out multiple positive lightning bolts.
Entire cold front erupts with severe thunderstorms, however, they struggle as they choke each other off and get undercut.
Struggling updraft towers/flanking line of the severe thunderstorms over Kansas City
One of the updrafts appears to strengthen and develop an anvil cloud.
The anvil of the storm exiting Kansas City gets larger. The tornado sirens are accidentally sounded for my location, but were likely meant for a tornadic supercell further south.
30 minutes to an hour later, the storm that was over Kansas City gets stronger and better organized as in enters the Moderate Risk area.
Radar presentation of the storm east of the Kansas City metro at : pm
Supercell continues to organize and starts to develop anvil back shear.
Severe thunderstorm's anvil cloud continues to flatten out as it races northeastward.