Dec. 2020

2020 is a “simple” one, but also a very complex year for most people. What’s happened, happened. All we will need to do is move forward, face the challenges, and enjoy success in 2021.

Recently, the CEO of Toyota said Electric Vehicles are overhyped, considering Tesla’s market cap tops the nine largest automakers combined. Potentially he is advocating Toyota's FCEV, such as the newly launched 2nd generation of Mirai. I agreed with his point that the market cap of Tesla is exaggerated due to the current low-interest rate and its leading position in the EV market. If you are a speculator focusing on the short term, then there is no problem to invest in Tesla (with high risk). But if you are an investor for the long run, you should not consider it.

Is that right?

Most energy consumptions will not be recovered to the 2019 level in the year of 2021 except for renewables. The government policy guidance, foreseeable subdued fossil fuel prices, and potential higher ROI of investing in renewables are the main reasons for this trend. The Covid-19 pandemic could be the catalyst and expedites this process in the post-pandemic period.

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit, Industries in 2021

A recent article from the Economist talks about Alberta's energy transformation.

Canadian government promised to end net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050. Alberta, one of the most "gray" provinces in Canada, where is the home of the oil sands is facing great challenges and trying to turn its color from "Gray" to "Blue" and "Green". It's hard to predict the boom of oil price, but pretty sure about its energy transformation.

Alberta recently boosts investment in cleaner forms of energy, such as geothermal energy by utilizing expertise in drilling, hydrogen from its rich natural gas with CCS technology, and potential small nuclear reactors. A C$750m would be immediately spent on emissions reduction funds, especially to develop carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Read article at:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12qv2000O2Rxo1e-SJ-CiS4EUePDBSOPh/view?usp=sharing

COVID-19 19 pandemic hit the electricity demand around the world, non-renewable generators of all sorts reduced their output, but still facing the challenge to reach the 1.5C stretch goal of Paris climate agreement.

It's a significant milestone in the fight against climate change that the world's capacity to generate electricity from coal has begun to drop in 2020. For example, Britain now burns less coal than it did when the first coal-fired power station was built in 1882.

Coal plants operating and proposed in 2019 would, if operated to the end of their lives, emit 360bn tones of carbon dioxide, whereas, to keep warming below 1.5C, the Paris agreement's stretch goal- it has to keep all future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases down to the equivalent of 420bn to 580bn tones of carbon dioxide. Today's coal plants could use up 60%-85% of that budget on their own.

What we have learned from past experiences on reducing coal power are specific designed government policies, cheaper renewable power alternatives, and restricted access to capital. Every corner of the world should learn from our past experience and expedite the progress of fading out the coal power.

Read article at:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CGtCuySAaS7JFwm9QKP2MuQumq010Nm0/view?usp=sharing

BRICS and G7 account for 65% shares of total world GDP in 2019. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicted the major economies will take years to recover from the recession due to the COVID pandemic except for China. We will experience prolonged low-interest rates, which will help companies to raise capital and dramatic changes in Exchange rates among different countries.

If you don’t know the importance of hydrogen power, which could be 22% of world power consumption by 2050, this video gives a total picture of the green hydrogen applications and key challenges to realize the future perspective.

The most upcoming impacted industries are Transportation, such as long-haul trucking, marine, and Carbon Capture and Storage technology, which could be booming in the next five to ten years. Using the full battery electric system in a long-haul vehicle is “mind-bogglingly stupid”.

If you want to see a detailed ROI analysis on a Hydrogen refill station in the passenger vehicle market, here is the link or contact me directly:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wW07ggo32eAJmRhZXHjAaJPsSz5uoVxT/view

Heavy-duty on-road vehicles account for 70% of all freight transport and 20% of transportation-sector greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Most of them are equipped with a diesel compressed engine.

If the diesel engine is fading out in the next decades, who will be the successor, Nikola, or Tesla? I prefer the former.

Here is a great article from Forbes talking about the dilemma of the current U.S. nuclear power industry.

Here are some of my insights:

The nuclear power renaissance only appears outside of the U.S. Promoting nuclear power is more for a geopolitical reason rather than an economic reason.

Cheaper building cost, with better quality and safety level, is too good to be true for building an NPP. The application of new technologies and material push up the redundant safety level and building cost.

U.S. should learn what's the sunk cost to give up, and retarget their energy priority, such as keep the edge of the innovative carbon capture and storage technology, increase the LNG export, and the development of the future nuclear fusion technology, etc.

A few insights from this interesting video talking about the different situation between the U.S. and China on the clean energy trend.

There isn’t a solution for the global climate community unless China is in, and there isn’t a solution with the U.S. not in. I am expecting the U.S. to rejoin the Paris Agreement soon, which will trigger an investment of two trillion dollars in clean energy initiatives.

Competition in clean energy sectors between the U.S. and China is more than welcome since it will stimulate innovation and will not stifle creativity.

The climate issue should never be involved in a political negotiation. No one will stand if we fail to reach the climate target.

The booming of the clean energy business in China has created a momentum that cannot be easily reversed and difficult to catch up if fall behind.

A good documentary from DW summarized the history of nuclear power generation. The application of new technologies and material push up the redundant safety level and building cost of a nuclear power generation station, make it is not economically viable compared to renewable energy, such as Wind, Solar, and Hydro.

The opportunities for entering the nuclear business are from the alternative equipment, NPP refurbishment, and China, but the learning curve could be very high.

What do you think?