Submission on Regional Development To Select Committee on Regional Australia

INTRODUCTION

It is becoming abundantly obvious that Australia’s capital cities, especially Sydney,

Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth are rapidly developing into mega cities, with all the

attendant problems that mega cities bring – high congestion, high infrastructure costs, high

operational costs, and high environmental degradation. Present populations of Sydney and

Melbourne are around 5 million, increasing to about 8 million by 2050, and around 10

million by 2060, with no end in sight. With these indicators of liveability already

problematic, it can only be imagined what magnitude of angst they will cause when the

population is doubled, and then tripled. This all within the lifetime of a large proportion of

the present population! What are we condemning our children and grand children to if no

action is taken now, to avert this impending disturbing prospect?

One need only read daily newspapers to see the physical and financial discomfort being

perpetrated on the inhabitants of major Australian cities. It seems that almost every day

there are vociferous complaints of congestion, road works, an inadequacy of public

transport with people being packed into rail carriages like sardines at peak times, inability to

find parking spots at railway stations and scarcity of affordable parking in CBDs. In addition

reports issued by government bodies such as Infrastructure Australia, inform us of the

exorbitant infrastructure costs – over $200 billion over five years - required to maintain

liveability to a barely acceptable level. Yet in spite of the public disgruntlement, and the bad

omens for the future, there are few practical solutions being offered to solve the seemingly

intractable problems of present day urbanisation. The cities are becoming increasingly

unliveable, while the regions languish. Inertia and vested interests both financial and

political, conspire to maintain the entrenchment of the urban sprawl, which is transforming

Australia’s present beautiful cities into the likeness of those in third world countries.

This submission presents a practical means of curtailing the population growth of Australia’s

capital cities, and at the same time developing the regions, an objective that has been

pursued since federation, with limited success. The concept presented here has been

promoted for over ten years to planning authorities (Plan Melbourne, Department of

Planning and Community Development of Victoria, Planning Institute of Australia,

Infrastructure Australia, Engineers Australia) and many politicians on both ends of the

political spectrum. Whilst the planning authorities have been supportive of the concept, as

shown by an article published by Engineers Australia which is attached to this submission,

most of the politicians both at the state and federal level, have given only perfunctory

responses, or no response at all to letters and descriptive literature sent to them. However,

public outcry on the liveability of Australia’s capital cities, the inability to utilise the

abundant resources of the regions, and a deteriorating economic outlook may combine to

hopefully change the political response.

OPTIONS

What are the courses of action that can be taken to avert the painful prospect of Australia’s

cities developing into expensive, polluted, unliveable concrete jungles?

Option 1 – Increase present expenditure on infrastructure from the present 3% of GDP to

around double.

Option 2 – Adopt a new mode of urbanisation which does not rely on high capacity

transport systems, which uses water and energy resources efficiently, and which treats the

environment with respect, not stressing it beyond its capabilities, and not polluting it with

the bi-products of human habitation.

Option 1 is not only expensive, diverting funds from public good such as hospitals, schools,

and social benefits, but also it offers no long term solution to acceptable liveability in a

demographic of burgeoning population growth. And it offers no solution to developing and

utilising the resources of the regions. On the other hand, Option2, though conceptually

more challenging , requiring careful analysis and good planning, opens up the possibility of

removing the nation from the urban quagmire, and setting it on to a course of economic

prosperity and environmental harmony. It can offer a blueprint for sustainable urbanisation

into the distant future, and avoid the impending darkness of Option 1.

One path for the implementation of Option 2 involves diverting the growth of capital cities

into neighbouring satellite cities, located about 100km from the capital, and spaced in a fan

formation with the capital at the centre. There would be an initial wave of these cities, each

with a minimum population of 100,000, and a maximum of around one million. As the first

wave of cities becomes fully inhabited, a second wave extending a further 100km into the

regions would be initiated, and so on with successive waves into the regions and into the

distant future. In this way cities would never become too large, yet they would be large

enough to sustain modern basic services such as good hospitals and tertiary educational

facilities, as well as cultural features such as museums, art galleries, theatres, and sporting

stadiums. As the waves spread out, the regions would be developed. Thus the dual purpose

of curtailing capital city growth and developing the regions can be accomplished. An

appropriate name for this form of urbanisation is “Expanding Nodular Development” or

END. END cities would be located adjacent existing “seed” towns in order to facilitate initial

development with the provision of labour and other resources. They would be on greenfield

sites because planning for compactness, transport and function are key requirements

generally incompatible with existing developments.

BASIC CHARACTERISTICS OF END CITIES

An uncompromised ability to be self sufficient economically and culturally is an essential

characteristic of an END city. They cannot be dormitory cities in which inhabitants sleep, but

do not work. A basic principle of operation of END cities is that people generally must live

where they work, i.e. within an approximate 20 minute travel time from residence to work.

These requirements call for compact design and transport systems integrated into the basic

layout for ease of access to housing, commercial, industrial and agricultural areas.

The real problem with developing the regions is that there is presently little incentive for

people to leave an environment with relatively abundant employment opportunities as in

the major cities to one where employment is uncertain. The challenge is to create industry

in the regions, industry which capitalise on the resources of the regions, adding value to

them, to make products which can be exported to other parts of Australia and overseas.

INDUSTRY IN THE REGIONS

(a) Primary Industry

The free and low cost resources which abound in much of rural Australia are sunshine, pure

air, and space - ideal resources for agriculture.

With efficient intensive agricultural and animal husbandry practices, agriculture can be the

first stepping stone to developing the regions. With a fast growing middle class on

Australia’s doorstep, China and SE Asia, and with competitive costs, Australia could become

a food bowl for our neighbours. In Europe intensive horticulture in countries such as Holland

and Spain has achieved spectacular success, and with the potentially huge markets available

to our north, the same can happen here. Intensive farming in the case of horticulture

involves the use of greenhouses in which temperature, humidity, nutrients and pathogen

and carbon dioxide levels can be controlled. With their use, productivity per hectare over

field grown vegetables can be increased many times over, as can water use efficiency. For

example with tomatoes, effective production can be increased by a factor of 9, and water

consumption in grams of fruit/litre of water can be reduced by a factor of 5. In addition the

cropping period can be increased from about 7 months to nearly a full year, with the use of

herbicides and insecticides being greatly reduced. In most of Australia, because of the mild

climate, greenhouses with plastic retractable tops and roll-up external walls can be used.

These are much less capital intensive than the fully glazed type generally used in northern

Europe, and allow crops to grow faster because they admit more sunlight. They also reduce

the need for cooling in summer, because they can be easily opened up to the outdoors for

ventilation. This feature also facilitates mechanical harvesting.

Since 1990, the world production of wild fish has plateaued out to about 85 million tonnes

per year, and is now in slight decline. The deficit, increasing rapidly because of population

growth and higher demands for protein, is being made up with aquaculture products.

Aquaculture therefore is a growth industry, and eminently suited to END cities and regional

growth. The use of greenhouses for horticulture can be used symbiotically with aquaculture

through the process of aquaponics. Here waste polluted water from fish tanks is fed to the

plants in the greenhouses. The plants utilise the waste as nutrient, and the purified water is

pumped back into the fish tanks. Other forms of intensive types of high protein farming are

piggeries and chicken farms.

(b) Secondary and Service Industry

Manufacturing industry can be generated through the processing of horticultural and animal

products. Produce will need to be harvested, packaged, refrigerated, or processed and

canned and transported to market. All of these require labour, and are sources of job

creation. Australian statistics show that for every primary plus secondary job generated,

about 6.5 services jobs are produced in sectors such as retailing, education, health, finance

and law – refer to article attached to this submission. Thus there is a multiplier effect of

about 6.5. Therefore by creating say 1000 primary plus secondary jobs, a total of 7500 jobs

will result, and population will increase by over 15,000.

Regional Australia is blessed with sunlight and in many areas wind, which are suitable for

the production of renewable energy in the form of electricity. The rate of renewable energy

uptake in Australia has been high by world standards, but is limited by the need to store it,

since renewable energy production by nature is very variable. Storage of electricity in large

quantities has been done effectively only with pumped hydro schemes such as Snowy2.

Pumped hydro schemes however are very expensive and take a long time to design and

build - Snowy2 is estimated to cost over $5 billion and will take 8 years to complete. This

however opens a window of opportunity for END cities.

Another method of storing electrical energy is to convert it to hydrogen gas. Electricity

generated by renewables can be converted to hydrogen through the simple process of

electrolysis. Hydrogen can be burned directly, without carbon dioxide emissions, to

generate electricity or for heating. It can also be used as an industrial feedstock, or it can be

stored. The availability of gas storage, in the form of existing natural gas pipelines, at

practically no cost, is of critical importance as it overcomes the capital cost and time delays

involved with pumped storage.

The use of hydrogen as an industrial feedstock is probably the main support pillar for the

economic sustainability of the END model. It is the basic element required for the

manufacture of plastics, PVC, and a host of industrial, commercial and household chemicals.

Hydrogen can also be used in fuel cells to power motor vehicles such as cars, trucks and

busses, and as such has vast potential to replace oil based fuels, without emissions. The

nationally strategic by-product of this is less dependency on imported petroleum – future

transport fuel security in a troubled world. Hydrogen is also used in the manufacture of

ammonia, which can be converted to a fertiliser, the world demand for which is growing

exponentially in response to population growth. Ammonia is easily liquefied and thus can be

economically exported overseas in ships, opening up a massive avenue for trade. Other uses

for hydrogen are in steel making and in the glass industry. Oxygen, the other product of

electrolysis, is also used in steel making, welding, metal cutting and as a medical gas.

A HOLISTIC APPROACH

From the above, it is seen that an industrial base for developing the regions is available with

proper planning, development of markets, and attracting investment capital. All of these are

of vital importance, requiring a holistic approach, with cooperation of the federal, state and

local governments, and international sources of capital. With the high international demand

of agricultural and industrial products mentioned above, and with the efficient production

afforded by compact END cities, all in a politically and economically stable nation such as

Australia, the latter should not be difficult. The main obstacle to the concept would lie

largely within our own ability to develop a strategy blueprint and the organisation needed

to establish governance, control and planning. Hopefully, the Committee on Regional

Development will promote and help develop these.

THE SHAPE OF END CITIES

What would a compact END city look like? It should be kept in mind that with population

growing from 5 million to 10 million for Sydney and Melbourne by about 2060, there will be

a need to build five satellite cities each of about one million to prevent the growth of these

capitals into megacities. The accompanying schematic diagram shows how such a city could

be planned. It is composed of nine segments, or development stages, each of about 111,000

people. The stages are arranged as modules, each attached to the other progressively as the

city grows. Staging is arranged as shown in the diagram, such that infrastructure cost is

progressive over the full time of development of 20 to 30 years, thereby minimising initial

costs. Stage 1 would consist of a main area, plus two service areas, plus a central CBD area

which is developed throughout the full city development time of 20-30 years. In addition to

a commercial CBD, the central area would accommodate major hospitals, tertiary and TAFE

educational facilities and cultural buildings such as museums art galleries and theatres. The

outer service area shown as Stage 1/5 would accommodate large sewerage and waste

treatment plants for internal Stages 1-4 and external Stage 5, and a future Stage 5 power

plant. The internal service areas would contain Stages 1 and 2 power and storm water

treatment plants. Each stage or module is self sufficient economically with local

employment opportunities within a 20 minute travel time from residence to work. Each

module has an area of about 4,000 ha or 40 square kilometres, giving an overall population

density of 2,800 per sq, km. This compares with a density of about 5,000 for the city of Port

Phillip, 300 for Ballarat and 500 for metropolitan Melbourne. In accordance with modern

household structures of which about 50% are couples with no children, single parent, and

lone person households, about 30% of housing has a housing density of 15/ha, 45% has

30/ha and 25% in apartment buildings of 4 stories and over. In all, about 2000ha are

reserved for housing, 1,000 ha for industrial and agricultural use and 1,000 ha for

commercial, educational, sporting, pondage and parklands use. Land outside of the city

boundary can be used for crops such as wheat, fruit orchards, and grazing land.

The city is serviced with internal and intermediate ring roads, and radial roads from the

periphery to the centre, enabling easy travel from anywhere to the centre or to any other

module within 30 minutes or less. Light rail and/or metro rail runs alongside the major roads

for public transport. Service corridors are provided alongside these major roads to

accommodate water, sewerage, gas, electricity and communication services. The complete

city has a diameter of about 22 km, with 5 outer service areas which house power plants,

water treatment and waste treatment plants and some heavy industry, for the outer

modules. Stage 5/1 service area also accommodates sewerage and waste treatment for

the inner Stages 1- 4. Each Stage is connected to a railway line for the movement of freight

and people to and from external cities. The city also has an airport for transport of peoples

and freight.

ELECTRIC POWER

Electric power is generated for each of the modules in the service areas using high efficiency

combined cycle gas turbines with waste heat recovery for heating adjacent industrial and

agricultural precincts. These generators can react to load changes rapidly in response to

renewable energy fluctuations, and city demand. If required they can export excess capacity

to other cities via the interconnecting high voltage grid. The generators are cooled with

cooling ponds which double as storm water retention ponds to partially treat storm water

before it is processed for Class A and/or potable use. Emissions from these highly efficient

generators, when combined with heat recovery for industrial and agricultural use can

reduce carbon dioxide emissions to less than one third when compared with the emissions

of conventional thermal power and industrial heating plants. Greenhouses and industrial

precincts would be located fairly closely within about three kilometres of the power plants

to enable thermal energy distribution in the form of hot water.

WATER

A significant limitation to regional development in many parts of Australia is scarcity of

water. Urban development relies heavily on natural streams and rivers, and in low rainfall

areas can severely stress these natural flows. END cities can be designed to eliminate this

limitation in all but desert regions, with recycled Class A water for uses such as toilet

flushing, wash down, irrigation and some industrial processes. All storm water can be

collected by a city wide storm water system to power plant cooling ponds for preliminary

sedimentation treatment. It can then be either purified to potable water standards using

microfiltration plants, or used for irrigation or discharged to a stream. It is estimated that for

a city of one million with an annual rainfall of 500mm, an excess of about 20,000 Ml per

year of Class A water can be discharged downstream. If all the storm water is processed to

potable standard, END cities could be built virtually anywhere in Australia except for desert

regions with an annual rainfall below 350mm. Mildura in the far north west of Victoria, with

an annual rainfall of 267mm could meet only 75% of requirements, and would need to

import from the Murray, but Kerang with an annual rainfall of 373mm would have a slight

excess. The installed cost of a microfiltration plant to convert storm water to potable

standard, including a chlorination component, is about $5 million in 2019 for each module

of 111,000 people. An additional benefit of harvesting storm water is that the size of water

reservoirs can be drastically reduced to allow for droughts. If all water is recycled, only

water which is lost in the system due to leakages and transpiration needs to be made up

from a reservoir, and the cost of the storm water system could in most cases be

compensated by the reduced requirements of storage reservoirs, dams and associated

piping and pumping stations.

THE COST OF INACTION

The price of inaction is high – population is galloping , and continuing infrastructure and

inefficiency costs are mounting, all sapping the strength of the economy and the disposable

wealth needed to maintain Australia’s high standards of living in an uncertain world.

Systems need to be set in place to develop a blueprint for rational, sustainable urbanisation.

The lead should come from the Federal government, but as stated earlier, cooperation must

occur with all levels of government. At the same time, markets must be established and

sources of capital investment investigated.

The END model offers such a blueprint, allowing the population to grow while

simultaneously containing congestion and providing commensurate growth in employment

to maintain present living standards. With a slowing world economy, employment

opportunities can be greatly reduced. Youth unemployment is already unacceptably high,

standing at about 27% for 15-19 year olds on average, and higher in the regions. An aging

population exacerbates the ratio of worker to non-worker, requiring a greater productivity

per worker. Immigration of refugees further increases the unemployment potential. The

END model which requires more workers in an industrial high efficiency environment

alleviates both problems – more jobs with higher productivity per job. The concept, though

novel, does not require great innovation, just good planning and integration of existing

technologies, which Australia as a nation is good at. It is essential that bipartisan policy be

adopted in order for political election cycles of three and four years not to interfere with

long term undertakings such as this. What is needed is the political will to make this vision

happen. Now is the time for national leaders to look beyond the next election, and take up

big ideas to enable a sustainable future for our nation to be realised.