A study by the Grattan Institute found that while 60% of all job growth in Melbourne was occurring within 10 km of the CBD, population growth within the zone was only 30% of total. In contrast, the zone 20 km and beyond from the CBD supported only 25% of job growth, but 55% of population growth, due mainly to the availability of affordable housing.

The trend of urban sprawl is exerting massive pressure on our transport systems to move people from the fringes to the primary work zones. Currently the car, the only viable means of travel to work for a large proportion of the population, is the main reason for the high congestion on our roads, with travel times 20% longer than a decade ago. Funding new transport infrastructure is a major difficulty. Illustrating the massive costs involved, the North-East Link connecting the Metropolitan Ring Road to the Eastern Freeway in Melbourne is estimated to cost approximately $16 billion, and the East-West Link connecting the Eastern freeway to the Westgate Freeway around $12 billion. In an effort to bolster public transport the Suburban Rail Loop has been proposed for Melbourne. This would be an enormous undertaking involving 90 km of tunnelling linking outer suburbs together.This project would take about three decades to complete, and cost $50 billion. In Sydney, the WestConnex project that provides better connection between the western suburbs and employment centres in the city will cost $16 billion, while the Sydney Metro rail project with 31 km underground tunnel is projected to cost over $33 billion. But with population growth for Melbourne from the present approximate 4.9 million to about 8.5 million by 2050 and for Sydney from 5.1 million to 8.0 million in the same period, clearly, these costs will be duplicated several times over in the next 50 years unless strategic action is taken. It makes no sense to continue making these huge expenditures when they only provide bandaid solutions. A paradigm shift in urbanisation planning is required.

The heart of the congestion problem lies in the fact that people do not live where they work. The major reason for this is that Australia is becoming more and more a service economy, employing knowledge workers typically concentrated in the CPDs. ABS data shows that between 2008 and 2013, the total labour market grew in line with overall population but employment in most primary and secondary industries actually fell. It also shows that for every primary plus secondary job, 6.5 service jobs in retail, finance, education, health etc are created. Without the industry to support service jobs, the economy will simply plateau and not expand.

Big ideas are needed to break the cycle of unsustainable urban sprawl and its consequences, and the downward spiralling of employment opportunities associated with negative industrial growth. We need to reduce the need for high capacity transport systems, and encourage the growth of industry to generate jobs. A form of urbanisation which I have termed “Expanding Nodular Development” (END), hinges on limiting the size of cities and channelling growth to satellite cities arranged in waves in a fan pattern with waves about 100 km apart extending into the regions, so populating the regions. The new cities would be built at the sites of existing “seed “ towns, and would be planned for a minimum of 100,000 and a maximum of about one million.

The key to success of this model is that END cities must be self sufficient in terms of industry, employment, and cultural opportunities. People would live and work there. Cities would be compact to about 2,500 people per square kilometre and sited and planned to facilitate ease of transport.

The challenge lies in creating new industries. In Europe, we have seen the establishment of intensive primary industries such as horticulture and animal husbandry such as piggeries. Horticulture through the use of modern greenhouses can be highly profitable, as evidenced by their extensive use in countries such as Holland and Spain. Another high growth industry which is eminently suited to the END model concept is aquaculture. The interesting thing about aquaculture and the END model is that horticulture and aquaculture can work together symbiotically through the process of aquaponics.

In recent times, because of environmental concerns, there has been unprecedented interest in renewable energy. However the widespread use of renewables is limited by their intermittent nature, thus requiring large storage capacity for the times when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow. This requirement opens up a great window of opportunity for the END concept which requires industry for viability. The key factor which ties renewables to the creation of industry is hydrogen. Electricity generated by renewables can be converted to hydrogen through the simple process of electrolysis. Hydrogen can be burned directly without carbon dioxide emissions to generate electricity, for heating, as an industrial feedstock, or it can be stored. The availability of gas storage, in the form of existing natural gas pipelines, at practically no cost, is of critical importance. It is estimated that the capacity of the current pipeline system is about six times that of the Snowy 2.0 hydro electric system, which will cost $5.1 billion, and will take 8 years to build. Utilising this existing storage capacity, the hydrogen path can be used to soak up excess renewable capacity, and release it in the form of gas when required. It also facilitates the stable control of the national electricity grid without having to shut down renewable sources when electricity demand is low.

The use of hydrogen as an industrial feedstock is probably the main support pillar for the economic sustainability of the END model. It is the basic element required for the manufacture of plastics, PVC, and a host of industrial, commercial and household chemicals. Hydrogen can be used in fuel cells to power motor vehicles such as cars, trucks and busses, and as such has vast potential to replace oil based fuels, without emissions. It is used in the manufacture of ammonia, which is used as a fertiliser, the world demand for which is growing exponentially in response to population growth. Ammonia is easily liquefied and thus can be economically exported overseas in ships, opening up a massive avenue for trade. Other uses for hydrogen are in steel making and in the glass industry. Oxygen, the other product of electrolysis, is also used in steel making, welding, metal cutting and as a medical gas.

From the above it can be seen that through the strategic application of the END model in conjunction with the abundant blessings of renewables, Australia could become largely independent of fossil fuels in all sectors. This would enable the nation to easily meet emission targets, would increase national energy security in a turbulent world, and would vastly increase manufacturing potential, with resulting economic benefits.

The development of industry would create job opportunities for skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled workers. This is important since not all workers are inclined or suited to the tertiary, knowledge based jobs which our present society is requiring to an ever increasing extent, and which is contributing greatly to youth unemployment.

The planned establishment of new cities presents unique opportunities to develop a sustainable environment. Waste water recycling, rain water harvesting, solid waste disposal with energy recovery, all become feasible at little extra cost, compared to costs applicable to established cities. With these planned and designed measures in place, less stress is placed on natural river systems in times of drought, and pollution of the environment through inadequate waste treatment is minimised.

The END model offers a blueprint for future urban development, allowing the population to grow while simultaneously containing congestion and providing commensurate growth in employment to maintain present living standards. The concept, though novel, does not require any great innovation, just good planning and integration of existing technologies, which as a nation, Australia is good at. Ultimately, what is needed is political will to make this vision happen. Now is the time when national leaders should look beyond the next elections, and make decisions for the overall future good of the nation.