Managed Urbanisation

Broad Overview Of Urbanisation Novel Concept

Urban sprawl in our capital cities is exerting massive pressures on our transport systems to move people from where they live to where they work. A study by the Grattan Institute found that while 60% of job growth in Melbourne was occurring within 10km of the CBD, population growth within the zone was only 30% of total. In contrast, the zone 20km and beyond from the CBD supported only 25% of job growth, but 55% of population growth, due mainly to the availability of affordable housing. For a large proportion of the population the car is the only viable means of transport, thus causing high congestion on our roads, with travel times 20% longer than a decade ago. To counter this, infrastructure spending is becoming disproportionately high, with for example, the North-East Link costing $16 billion. But with Melbourne’s population set to go from 5 million to 8.5 million by 2050, and 11 million by 2066, these costs provide only a band-aid solution, as they will have to be duplicated several times over. What is required is a paradigm shift in the way we urbanise.

My concept which I have termed “Expanding Nodular Development” or “END” provides a fundamental solution to this problem, and offers a sustainable blueprint for growth into the future. In essence the END concept involves diverting population growth of the capital cities to satellite cities located within about 100km of the capitals, and arranged in waves in a fan formation, with waves about 100km apart extending into the regions, thus developing them. END cities would have to have a minimum population of 100,000, and a maximum of about 1 million, in order to be economically and culturally self sustaining, and to avoid the problems we are experiencing now. They would be compact, and designed to facilitate ease of transport and distribution of services.

In order for END cities to grow, they must be industrialised. Industry is a crucial ingredient. This would initially be intensive efficient farming as in horticulture combined with aquaculture, poultry farming, and piggeries. These primary industries spawn secondary industries such as food processing, and these lead to service industries such as retail, finance, legal, health and education. Through the use of renewable energy from wind and sun, hydrogen gas can be made and this is a basic element for the fertiliser and chemical industries, which can develop later. In Australia there is a multiplication factor of about 6.5 to 1 of service jobs to primary plus secondary jobs, ie, for every one of the latter, 6.5 service jobs are generated. Thus with proper development of markets in SE Asia and China both of which have a growing middle class, efficient END cities can become economic power houses.

Because END cities are planned, other major benefits of END cities are environmental sustainability, facilitating affordable housing, and providing jobs for youth for which unemployment is unacceptably high – 27% for 15-17 year olds. High end service type jobs such as in health, IT, engineering, accounting and legal require tertiary education. But a high proportion of workers are not suited to or are uninclined to this type of work. Yet they all require employment, and a strong industrial base provides a good solution.

The END model offers a blueprint for future urban development, allowing the population to grow while simultaneously containing congestion and providing commensurate growth in employment to maintain present living standards. The concept, though novel, does not require any great innovation, just good planning and integration of existing technologies, which Australia is good at. What is needed is the political will to make this vision happen. Now is the time for national leaders to look beyond the next election, and take up big ideas to enable a sustainable future for our nation.