A recent study released by the Grattan Institute on the relative availability of jobs and housing in the inner CBD area and the outer suburbs of the major Australian Cities, gives insights into troubling trends for road congestion and travel times to and from work. The study found that while 60% of all job growth was occurring within 10km of the CBD, population growth within that zone was only 30% of total. In contrast, the zone 20km and beyond from the CBD supported only about 25% of job growth, but 55% of population growth. The reason for this appears to be largely that affordable housing for families with children is available only in the outer suburbs.

As a result of these developments, more than 50% of people are moving to the outer suburbs, 20km or more from the CBD. The trend is making the car the only viable means of travel to work for a large proportion of the population, and is the main reason for the high congestion on our roads. Travel times are becoming increasingly onerous in the lives of working Australians, being on average 20% longer than a decade ago. Can this burden be relieved, or are we destined to remain slaves to the automobile forever, sacrificing more and more of our precious time to it at the expense of leisure and family time?

Is public transport the answer? The Grattan report shows that whilst the inner suburbs are served well by public transport, the nature of the radial public transport system, combined with the large footprint of the major cities, often renders travel times of less than one hour impossible. The report offers a few suggestions for relief, such as relaxing planning zones and increased tolling at peak times, but these do not cut to the heart of the problem. In addition, they impose restrictions which add to travel cost and increased inconvenience, both of which add to the already high stress levels of workers.

The heart of the congestion problem lies in the fact that people do not live where they work. One of the major reasons for this is that most job growth occurs in the vicinity of the CBD, and the reason for this according to the Grattan report, is that employers require access to the greatest pool of potential employees possible, employees with knowledge based, tertiary type skills.

At present the Australian economy is developing more and more into a service economy, one which requires professionally trained people. An extract from the Australian Bureau of Statistics which shows employed labour (x1000) in industries from 2008 to 2013 is given in Table 1.

In that period, the total growth of the labour market, basically in line with population growth was +8.7%. But Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing growth was -11.2% i.e. nearly 20% below population growth, and Manufacturing was -6% or nearly 15% below population growth. Construction growth was +3.9%, less than half of population growth, while Professional, Scientific and Technical Services at +8.4% was approximately in line with population growth. The big winners were Administrative and Support Services at + 16.7%, Public Administration and Safety at +17.2%, Education and Training at +14.7%, Health Care and Social Assistance at +28.2%, and Mining at a huge +58.4%. All of these have growth rates considerably higher than that of the population. With the exception of Mining, job growth is seen to be predominantly in the Service Industries, which require professional people such as Accountants, Architects, Engineers, Draftsmen, Lawyers, Doctors, Nurses, Administrators, Teachers and IT workers. Most of these jobs occur within 10 km of the CBD, which explains the daily migration of workers into the inner city areas, with the subsequent congestion problems.

The development of service industries is dependent on basic value add industries which convert natural materials into useful products for the benefit of the population, or for export. Without primary and secondary industry, service industries would be limited, for unless service type work is exported, as with research and development, there would be no ‘new’ wealth entering the economy. When crops are grown as in agriculture, or minerals dug out of the ground as in mining, and then these raw products are processed to make say bread and motor cars, wealth is injected into the economy and this enables service industries such as health, education, retail, accounting, and transport to develop. Primary and secondary industries are an absolute necessity for an economy to thrive, as is borne out by the economies of most third world countries which have subsistence primary industry and little to no secondary industry. In 2013, the ratio of primary plus secondary jobs (AF&F + Mining) to all jobs was 7.44:1, i.e. for every primary + secondary job, 6.44 other jobs were created. The multiplier effect of primary and secondary jobs is 6.44.

The above statistics show that the Australian economy is fairly rapidly losing secondary industry. Surprisingly enough, apart from mining, even primary industry is declining, and we are importing significant quantities of primary products. According to a report by Melbourne University in conjunction with the CSIRO called ‘Victorian Food Supply Scenarios’ (April 2011), Victoria could face large deficits in vegetable and fruit supplies by 2030. Our mining industry is large and growing, but slowing down as the world economy, especially that of China slows. Unfortunately, at this time, because of capital limitations, Australia does little to no conversion of our vast iron ore and coal deposits into steel and other ferrous products. But Australia needs to expand its secondary industry somehow, or else our national development will be curtailed. According to the latest ABS data (3101.0 Australian Demographic Statistics June 2014 Table 1) on Australian population growth, population has expanded at an average rate of 1.67% per year between 2009 and 2014 due to natural increase and immigration. Between 2008 and 2013, the average rate of job increase was 1.75% or slightly higher than population growth, but 31% of these jobs in 2013 were part time. If part time workers worked 50% of the hours of fulltime workers, then the effective job increase would be less than 1.5%, which is below population growth. Hence the rate of job generation needs to increase and if it does not not, unemployment will increase beyond presently accepted limits especially with youth which is already unacceptably high at 27.2% for 15-19 year olds, according to the latest AMP National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) report. In addition, our aging population reduces the ratio of productive workers to total population, thus making it necessary, if our present standards of living are to be maintained, to increase the output of workers. There emerges then the necessity to generate more primary and secondary industry jobs, since service jobs are dependent upon them and cannot absorb the extra availability of jobs due to population increase, without them. In addition the productivity of workers needs to increase because of the ageing population. The issue of youth unemployment must be addressed by making available jobs that do not require tertiary training, as a large proportion of the population is not inclined towards tertiary training.

It is the premise of this Paper that all of the issues raised above – road congestion, housing affordability, job availability, youth unemployment, and increased productivity can be positively addressed by an innovative approach to urbanisation and job creation. Australia is one of the most heavily urbanised countries in the world, with over 64% of the population concentrated into its capital cities. This pattern is continuing with more and more growth occurring in the cities at the expense of rural areas. The Melbourne growth in 2012-13 was 2.25%, while for Victoria as a whole it was only 1.86%. From 2008-13, Melbourne growth was 2.03% and for Victoria 1.80%. Thus it is seen that the discrepancy between capital city and rural area growth is increasing. The basic intent of this concept is to halt capital city growth, which for Melbourne is almost a staggering 100,000 per year, or the size of Ballarat, and channel that growth into satellite cities. These cities would be in close proximity to the capital cities, but far enough away for the satellites to have their own unique identity. A number of these cities would be built in a first wave, say between 30 and 100km from the capital. After about 10-15 years another wave of cities would be built between 100 and 150km of the capital, and so on. The new cities would be built at the sites of existing ‘seed’ towns, and would be planned for a maximum population of 100,000 to 750,000 people. I have termed this concept ‘Expanding Nodular Development’ or END.

END cities would be self sufficient in terms of industry and employment. The idea is that people would live there and work there. They would be compact and sited and planned to be environmentally compatible. They would feature waste water recycling, rain water harvesting, solid waste disposal with energy recovery, and large scale electrical generation with waste heat recovery and thermal distribution. Initial planning for a maximum population is an essential requirement so that infrastructure does not have to be upgraded as population increases. Energy efficiency is an important economic incentive. With thermal heat distribution for the heating of buildings and the provision of process heat for industry the efficiency of utilization of primary energy can at least be doubled to about 65%, and with the judicious deployment of energy intensive process industries can be increased to about 90%. An additional benefit of this is that Green House Gas emissions could be at least halved, and could approach one third those using traditional methods of energy use.

It is important that END cities not be residential cities. They must be self sufficient in employment and business opportunities. The employment opportunities would come about through the establishment of intensive primary industries such a horticulture, and animal husbandry such as piggeries, poultry farming, dairy and aquaculture. Horticulture through the use of modern greenhouses can be highly profitable, as evidenced by their extensive use in Europe in countries such as Holland and Spain. These greenhouses operate all year round regardless of weather conditions, and utilize controlled atmospheres to provide optimum temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations as well as measures for disease prevention. Heating of the greenhouses can be provided by heat recovered from the power generating plant. Aquaculture is synergistic with these greenhouses as waste from the greenhouses can be fed to fish, and the waste from the fish can be fed to plants.

Secondary industry is derived through the processing of the primary products. This could involve canning, tomato processing, fish processing, abattoirs and meat processing, refrigeration plants, egg processing, fruit processing etc. All of these processes would require process heat which would be cheap and readily available from the electrical generation process. With cheap thermal and electrical energy, and abundant water through water recycling and large scale rain harvesting, other process type industries such as the pharmaceutical and chemical industries would be attracted.

But how would END implementation assist road congestion? Firstly, the growth of capital cities would be slowed down and stopped to ideally no more than 10-20% greater than the size they are now. Existing congestion in the capitals would not be improved unless they actually reduced in population by a net migration to the satellite cities, and/or infrastructure were to be upgraded. But at least congestion would not get much worse. Secondly, END cities would not be large sprawling metropolises, but small, compact, and well planned, cities with good public transport and well designed roads. Size, or footprint is important. It is estimated that a city of 100,000 would have an area of only about forty square kilometres i.e. about 6.5×6.5 km, with an allowance for intensive farming, but not cropping. This works out as a density of 2,500/sq.km, and compares with 4,725/sq.km for the densely populated inner city of Port Phillip in Melbourne. With this compact size, and with infrastructure originally planned for a nominated maximum population, congestion would never be an issue.

One of the major problems for new families is cost of housing. Various factors contribute to this, some of these being high cost of land, high cost of infrastructure and high cost of dwellings. The END model deals with essentially rural land, outside of present city limits, hence the cost of virgin land should be considerably less than that within the greater area of capital cities, especially in the initial stages of development, when there is a need to attract population to the cities. Infrastructure costs are related to footprint and location of development. With planned development at the very outset and a compact footprint, infrastructure costs including roads and water and waste services can be minimised, and do not have to be duplicated in the future as occurs with conventional ‘urban sprawl’ when the population grows. Infrastructure needs only to be extended as the city develops to maturity over an approximate 20 year period. Regarding cost of dwellings, planning for END cities would consider the demand for high, medium and low density development and would cater for these markets. Family sizes are changing and there is a growing demand for single and two person dwellings. Compact housing in medium to high density developments can be planned to meet this increasing demand, thus decreasing building costs relative to low density developments with larger dwellings.

As discussed earlier, job expansion is occurring mainly in the services sector while primary and secondary jobs are diminishing. Yet service jobs can only increase up to a certain saturation level if there is no primary and secondary increase. Thus there is an imperative to augment these if the economy is to thrive. Because of Australia’s natural advantages of open spaces, a generally mild climate, and plenty of sunlight, END cities could rely on primary growth in the AF&F (Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries) sector. AF&F, through the use of intensive farming technology such as greenhouses and aquaculture could provide a basis for the development of secondary industries for the conversion of primary produce into saleable and exportable products. The energy and water efficiencies of END cities would induce energy and water intensive industries to develop. Low cost of land and lower municipal rates would be further inducements to industry. The development of these primary and secondary industries would create job opportunities for unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled labour, thus opening up an area for workers who are not suited for or inclined towards tertiary occupations, but who nevertheless still require jobs. These industries would require farm hands, process workers, truck and forklift operators, machine operators, maintenance personnel and tradespeople. Of course tertiary trained workers are still required for administration, engineering process control, and as agricultural scientists, chemists, accountants etc, but the majority would be in the unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled areas, thus augmenting an employment market which is presently rapidly contracting. This market augmentation would be a great boon to youth, which presently has unacceptably high rates of unemployment. An END city which is initially planned, could be planned to cater for youth by providing low cost accommodation, sporting facilities, bicycle tracks, and entertainment centres etc, thus making them attractive to youth, especially to homeless youth, which is a matter of great concern.

As the Australian population ages (in line with most countries in the Western world), there will be fewer and fewer productive workers for an increasing number of dependants. If the high standard of living which Australians enjoy is to be maintained, then productivity per worker must increase. END cities with their intensive primary production techniques and efficient use of energy and water resources, will increase the efficiency of production, and so raise the production per average worker. The compact nature of the cities will reduce travel time and so reduce time and fuel wastage for the transport of people and goods. In addition, health related costs associated with congestion as people are exposed to stress and pollutants will be avoided. It has been estimated that by 2021, on current trends, cost of congestion in Sydney will be $9.3 billion/year, and for Melbourne $7.5 billion/year. These are highly significant figures, and by reducing them the efficiency of the Australian economy and so productivity of workers can be increased. Another factor determining the efficiency of the economy is the social and monetary cost of unemployment. By creating more job opportunities, unemployment rates are reduced, and average productivity must necessarily increase. Unemployment benefits are also reduced, so reducing the drain on the public purse. An additional benefit is that social stress is reduced, with positive effects in relation to crime, substance abuse, and homelessness.

In conclusion, the END model offers a blueprint for future urban development, allowing the population to grow and simultaneously providing a commensurate growth in employment to maintain present living standards. It is efficient in the use of resources, and friendly to the environment. Australia is blessed with natural resources, but much of the country is dry, and water resources are stretched. The END model offers a way to overcome this problem, so that Australia can produce food in abundance in a world that is becoming increasingly desperate for it. Australia now lives in a global community, and is no longer an island fortress. In a world with an exploding population, and of increasing unrest, it is likely that pressure to increase migration will increase. The END model provides a means of not only coping with this, but to benefit from it, allowing Australia to become a bread bowl for the world.

For more details on the END model visit www.managedurbanisation.com

Frank Reale is a mechanical and electrical engineer and environmental scientist who specialises in energy conservation. He has a special interest in sustainable cities.