Article published in the July issue of the Engineers Australia magazine.

A recent study released by the Grattan Institute found that while 60% of all job growth was occurring within 10 km of the CBD, population growth within that zone was only 30% of total. In contrast,the zone 20 km and beyond from the CBD supported only 25% of job growth, but 55% of population growth, due largely to the availability of affordable housing.

The trend is putting massive pressure on our transport systems to move people from the fringes to the primary work zones. Currently, the car, the only viable means of travel to work for a large proportion of the population,is the main reason for the high congestion on our roads,with travel times at 20% longer than a decade ago. It has been estimated that by 2021, on current trends, cost of congestion in Sydney will be $9.3 billion per year, and in Melbourne $7.5 billion per year, figures greatly affecting the efficiency and productivity of the nation.

Funding new transport infrastructure is already a major difficulty for governments and the private sector alike. With population forecast to grow from 24 million to around 40 million over the next 40 years, it is hard to see how this is going to get any better. I estimate infrastructure spending would need to increase from about 3% of GDP to over 5%.

The heart of the congestion problem lies in the fact that people do not live where they work. The major reason for this is that Australia is becoming more and more a service economy, employing knowledge workers typically concentrated in CBDs. ABS data shows that between 2008 and 2013,the total growth of the labour market was 8.7%, in line with overall population growth. However, employment in most primary and secondary industries actually fell, while tertiary industries grew more strongly.

But primary and secondary industries are an absolute necessity to support these tertiary type jobs and for the economy to expand. In 2013, the ratio of primary(AF&F + Mining) plus manufacturing jobs to all jobs was 7.44:1. In other words, the multiplier effect of primary and secondary jobs is 6.44. Without the industry to support these jobs, the economy will simply plateau out and not expand. An unacceptably high rate of unemployment for youth, which stands at 27.2% for 15-19 year olds, and an ageing population which requires greater productivity per worker, are of concern. Higher levels of unemployment and lower standards of living will result unless the primary and secondary sectors of the economy expand.

Big ideas are needed to break the cycle of unsustainable urban sprawl and the consequences of that. My suggestion is that we need to adopt a completely new mode of urbanisation, which will reduce the need for high capacity transport systems.

One form of urbanisation is termed the ‘Expanding Nodular Development’ (END), which hinges on limiting the size of cities, creating jobs to match demands for future development, and increasing the efficiency of resource use.

The basic intent of this concept is to halt capital city growth, which for Melbourne is almost 100,000 per year, or the size of Ballarat, and channel that growth into satellite cities which would be in close proximity to the capital cities. The new cities would be built at the sites of existing ‘seed’ towns, and would be planned fora minimum population of 100,000 and a maximum of 750,000.

The key to success of this model is that END cities must be self sufficient in terms of industry and employment. People would live there and work there. Cities would be compact at about 2,500 people per square kilometre, and sited and planned to facilitate ease of transport.

The challenge lies around creating new industries, which has preoccupied many governments in Australia over the past decades with little success so far. However, it can be done. In Europe, we have seen the establishment of intensive primary industries such a horticulture,and animal husbandry such as piggeries. Horticulture through the use of modern greenhouses can be highly profitable,as evidenced by their extensive use in countries such as Holland and Spain.

Another high growth industry which is eminently suited to the END model concept is aquaculture. As the world population rapidly grows, wild fish production is insufficient to meet demands. Since 1990,world production of wild fish has plateaued out at about 85 million tonnes per year and is now in slight decline. The deficit is being made up with aquaculture products.The interesting thing about aquaculture and the END model is that horticulture and aquaculture can work together symbiotically through the process of aquaponics. In this process,the water in which fish live is filtered and cleaned by plants,which utilise the pollutants as nutrient. The cleaned water is then pumped back into the fish tanks.

The END model in Australia would have horticulture as a primary source of industry because of the abundant supply of sunlight and cheap energy for heating greenhouses. Aquaculture in conjunction with horticulture would increase the viability of the concept through the creation of an additional saleable product, a product which is coming into increasing demand as our and the world’s need for protein rapidly increases. The aquaculture industry would also create more employment opportunities in the production and in the processing of the fish. Cheap thermal energy for the processing of the fish would give a significant production cost advantage.

Secondary industry is derived through the process ingof the primary products. This could involve canning,tomato processing, abattoirs and meat processing, fruit processing, etc. All of these processes would require process heat which would be cheap and readily available from the electrical generation process. Low cost energy would attract other energy intensive industries such as the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. The development of these primary and secondary industries would create job opportunities for unskilled, semi-skilled and skilled labour, thus opening up an area for workers who are not suited for or inclined towards tertiary occupations, but who nevertheless still require jobs.

Planned establishment of new cities also presents unique opportunities to develop a sustainable economy,including waste water recycling, rain water harvesting and solid waste disposal with energy recovery. Large scale electrical generation in combined cycle gas turbine/steam configuration with waste heat recovery and thermal distribution would maximise energy efficiency, and at the same time enable rapid load pickup and load shed to cater for peak loads. For a city of 100,000, four units each of 50-60 MW capacity would provide all electrical requirements with about 25% reserve capacity. Thermal energy would be distributed through medium temperature hot water atabout 135 °C (212 kPa or 30 psi) through underground insulated steel pipes. This temperature is suitable for most industrial processes and absorption refrigeration. With thermal heat distribution for the heating of buildings and the provision of process heat for industry, the efficiency of utilisation of primary energy can be at least doubled to about 65%, and greenhouse gas emissions at least halved.

The END model offers a blueprint for future efficient urban development, allowing the population to grow while simultaneously containing congestion and providing commensurate growth in employment to maintain present living standards. The concept, though novel, does not require any great innovations, just good planning and integration of existing technologies which engineers are good at. Ultimately, what is needed is political will to make this happen. It is time that engineers stood up and be counted in making visions like this become a reality.

Frank Reale is a building services consulting engineer with a masters degree in environmental science from Monash University.