The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy of India has updated the list of certified manufacturers of solar cells and modules. According to the document, the total annual capacity to produce PV-panels by December 2024 reached 63 gigawatts (GW), of which 48.3 GW accounts for production capacities commissioned with state support worth 35 thousand crores of Indian rupees (about $4.1 billion).

The capacity of Indian enterprises significantly exceeds the needs of the domestic market. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), in 2023, 9.7 GW of solar panels were commissioned in India, and their total installed capacity reached 72.8 GW. Therefore, Indian manufacturers are trying to ensure capacity utilization by entering foreign markets. India’s solar panel exports tripled to 5.8 GW in FY2024 (April 1, 2023, to March 31, 2024), according to customs statistics. Export revenue increased from $1 billion to $2 billion, of which 99% came from supplies to the United States.

Such data is not accidental: for the United States, imports from India are an alternative to supplies from China, which is subject to trade restrictions. In 2022, the US banned imports of photovoltaic panels from the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, and in 2024, the tariff on solar panel imports from China to the US was increased from 25% to 50%. Due to trade barriers, Chinese companies began to transfer production to Southeast Asian countries, but the latter were hit by a barrage of bans. In November 2024, the US Department of Commerce announced high import tariffs on solar cells and modules from Malaysia (21.3%), Thailand (77.9%), Cambodia (125.4%) and Vietnam (271.3%).

This provides additional opportunities for Indian companies including Waaree, Adani and Vikram Solar: their total production line capacity at the end of fiscal year 2024 reached nearly 20 GW per annum, and the export share of solar panel production was 53%, 68% and 54%, respectively (data from JMK Research). The increase in supplies to the United States will be facilitated by growth in final demand. In the first 11 months of 2024, 35 GW of solar panels were installed in the US, an 80% increase over the twelve months of 2021 (19.2 GW).

This trend is also true for the world as a whole: according to Ember, global solar panel installations increased from 186 GW in 2021 to 459 GW in 2023 and reached 593 GW at the end of 2024. Therefore, India will increase the export of solar panels not only to the USA, but also to South Africa, the UAE, Bangladesh and some other countries, which so far account for only 1% of exports (in value terms). In addition, the demand for solar panels will increase in India itself, given that the country’s authorities plan to increase the installed renewable energy capacity to 500 GW by 2030 (versus 176 GW in 2023).

Coal-fired TPPs remain a key source of electricity for India: last year, they accounted for 75% of the country’s power output, whereas solar panels accounted for a mere 6%. However, India’s plans for the development of renewable energy are quite ambitious: Indian regulators plan to increase the installed capacity of renewables from last year’s 176 GW to 500 GW by 2030. Partial deregulation of nuclear energy is also planned: last year, India’s Atomic Energy Commission issued a recommendation to allow foreign companies to participate in the construction of NPPs not only as technology suppliers, but also as shareholders participating in the distribution of profits.

HPPs will continue to be an important component of the energy mix, including pumped-storage power plants (PSPPs), which make it possible to utilize excess electricity by pumping water from a lower reservoir to an upper one, from which the water is discharged during the hours of high demand. Last year, India’s Torrent Power signed an agreement to build three PSPPs with a total capacity of 5.7 GW in the state of Maharashtra in central India. The project will help reduce emissions from the domestic power industry, which is characterized by high carbon intensity.

According to Ember, India is an outsider among the largest BRICS countries in terms of greenhouse gas emissions per megawatt-hour (MWh) of electricity generated. In 2023, Brazil produced an average of 96 kg of CO2 equivalent in greenhouse gases per 1 MWh, compared to Russia’s 445 kg per MWh and India’s 713 kg per MWh.