On Predictability

Published by: Despues Green 4/28/2025

So I was inspired by ChessQueen63 to talk about the concept of predictability. As we play more and more chess to understand how it works, we get to see how much chess is about having the ability to trick, outsmart, out-think, and outwit people. Traps, tricks, gambits, etc. And if this is the mode to be then it’s understandable that there is a sort of mode of thinking of chess where there is an element of predictability. Because we have to figure out our own plans as well as our opponents’ plans so that we don’t get checkmated. These types of things, especially as we play against players who do know how to make plans and figure out our plans in an attempt to stop them, you can feel like the best route is to constantly play passive, waiting moves so that you can seem less predictable and you can just see what your opponent wants to do to stop them with their own plan. With this type of thinking, it can feel uncomfortable to play the most obvious move because you think your opponent sees it and has already prepared for it.

This can be a very dangerous way of thinking because the best move is the best move. 

"I don't believe in psychology; I believe in good moves." 

- Bobby Fischer 

And you should be thinking the same thing, because in a chess game we already have to deal with enough psychological elements, putting our hearts and minds on the line. But more than anything, you should be most concerned about what’s actually possible in the position, evaluating the possible plans. 

The element of predictability is inescapable, because we live in a finite world. Nothing is more incalculable than the imagination itself, but it is still limited within the bounds of its own capacity [as the individual possess it]. In chess, there is not an infinite number of possible positions. In fact, it is estimated by American mathematician Claude Shannon that there are 13^64 possible chess positions, and this includes illegal positions and excludes legal positions following captures and promotions [which means there are even more]).

As long as these things are true, then as players we need to be wary of the fact that of course we may be predictable or what we are doing can be anticipated, but the real question is are they going to save themselves or are they not going to save themselves? The same question of course goes for us as the person on the other side of the board.

As a beginner, this can seem pretty tough to grasp at first but the more you become strengthened in your understanding of chess and calculating abilities, the more confident you will be in what the plan is and what you’re trying to accomplish as opposed to worrying about being predictable. Because there is a huge difference between what could happen in terms of what is actually placed on the board and thus knowing the possibilities on the board and what could happen on the board, versus what could happen in terms of the intangibles–the psychological, the predictable, etc.

Magnus Carlsen has a quote as well where he says that one of the worst things we can do on the chess board is worry about things that haven’t happened yet. At all stages of our play in chess, it is easy for us to fall into this type of thinking. Whatever’s actually happened on the board is more important than the things that haven’t happened, yet. And the best way for us to be confident in this fact is that we further improve our understanding of the game, because there are principles and things that we can objectively say are useful to our play for game-to-game.

Using one of ChessQueen's games as an example, I provide this game between jalex003 and ChessQueen63 from this past week's Biweekly Friday Arena. ChessQueen63 is Black and they played a Chigorin Variation of d4. Black plays this sort of Berlin Defense reminiscent position with the f6 and c6 Knights. It's not a Berlin Defense because of 1. d4, but Black is just trying to play as comfortably as she knows how to at least so she doesn't run out of clock thinking nor jeopardizes her position too soon. Eventually, we reach this position where we have opposite side castles and 12. Re1 hits the board. 

Follow the game from this position and see the notes: https://lichess.org/study/Cily05PW/iBilpptJ#23 

12. ...Rd7?! (Follow the game from this position and see the notes) This comes off as a waiting move for Black to see what White will do. The plan here is supposed to be to attack the kingside with the Kingside pawns and get the Knight off of f6 to play f5. Black formulates a different plan of doubling her rooks on the d-file, but there's no point in this because Black already owns the center and the rooks are blocked by the e5 pawn. 

19. ...e5?? (Follow the game from this position and see the notes). This clearly blunders the queen. It seems like Black wanted the fork on e4, but one of those pieces was already attacking her own Queen. She should have taken the check on c1 or even a1 (possibly won a rook if White wasn't paying attention), got the King to h2 and then played this f6-e5 plan that she put together. But Black is now losing her queen, and this is probably because she was trying to avoid predictability for a hopefully larger plan.

It's difficult to surmise that it's possible that ChessQueen63 was trying to avoid predictability in a general sense, but considering her play which does show that she knows that she should attack and develop progressive plans, I think it's easier to understand that part of what she is dealing with at this stage in her play is problems related to predictability. Many of the games highlighted in her Player of the Week article show where she made these sorts of decisions and inspired me to write this article and designate her as Player of the Week. Again, this is a very normal part of playing that we never seem to escape even as we climb higher and higher up through rating ladder. By building self-confidence by knowing what we're doing, we can find ourselves much more solid in our preparation and play well.

Thank you for reading.

Watch more games and analyses from the tournament here: https://lichess.org/study/Cily05PW 

Player of the Week: ChessQueen63

Published by: Despues Green 4/27/2025

Happy Sunday, everyone! We wrapped up our first Biweekly Friday Lichess Arena this week and we just can’t thank those who participated enough in the tournament! The feedback has been that the tournament was super fun and there will be more coming soon such as the Fischer Random Tournament coming up on May 9th, 2025! 

Register for this tournament here.

Congratulations to poke_key for winning first place, ramdinger for placing second, and Politics_Matter for placing third in the tournament! These were the people to beat. Follow the games using this link: https://lichess.org/study/Cily05PW/f2yZgSA0 Most of them have annotations with notes that can help you improve your game to understand the thought processes from a beginner's mind to a club player's mind. 

This week we will be starting our Player of the Week series. Following each tournament, we highlight a player of the week for their performance in the previous tournament. Every game is analyzed and studied to help more people learn the game of chess as they grow up the ladder. Different people need different information depending on where they are, and thanks to the fact that there are many people around us who go through the things we through, we can learn from each other and be improved. This week, I want to highlight ChessQueen63 for their performance in this week’s Biweekly Friday arena.

https://lichess.org/study/Cily05PW/OQlrW8d0

Peekokrak v ChessQueen63

ChessQueen63 has a lot of potential. They just need more confidence in their game. I believe that their primary problem is the issue of feeling predictable. There is a life lesson in here, and we will talk about it. This is a player worthy of highlighting for their performance in the tournament. It’s not about being “the best,” but it is about the spirit of play she emanates through her gameplay and how she lets it slip because of small things like worrying about being predicted.

In this game versus peekokrak, ChessQueen63 showed positional understanding in the position. The players are playing a Modern Bishop’s Opening of the Italian Game. Pretty normal moves, and then it happens: 9. Nd5. White is creating tension on the board with the attack toward Black’s Knight on f6. It’s well-defended, but if White gets lazy and lets White build up a real attack it could be a problem. But Black has time and settles with a calm 9. ..Be6. 10. Rd1 Qd7? ChessQueen63 forgets that her Queen was helping to defend the Knight on f6. Black is losing a piece, and this type of play can make White’s mouth water for catching you slipping in a trap or trick later in the game. Black has to wake up in this position. It’s not over yet. 

11. Bxf6 is the right response. Get Black thinking about his mistakes.11. Bxd5! Black shows positional understanding to minimize her potential losses. (If she just lazily took back with the Bishop, there’s a nasty fork waiting for her with Nf6!). This game should actually be one of our Blooper Games (you’ll see those later this week) because of later shenanigans in the position. 

So when I found this game it was before I decided to name ChessQueen63 as player of the week. I chose it for a different reason. At 13. Bxd5, White is looking at attacking ideas toward the Black King which should include f4 and h4. On his next move he plays c3, White has the idea of rerouting the Bishop if needed along the diagonal, but they won’t need it. It’s a nice option to have, though with f4 and h4 on the way and the tension between the d4 pawn and the c3 pawn now in the middle of the board.

ChessQueen63 takes the pawn, White takes back with the b-pawn, a bit suspiciously. Even after playing h3 there was no g4 to mount toward the King. Still waiting on f4… White can have a bit more hope in their position because Black is showing their own limited understanding as well. 24. …Kf8?! Looks like the absolute end of the world for Black and then 31. Qf6?? As if White didn’t mean to win the game or the tournament. 

But wait, there’s more! After 36. F4, Black makes a run for it with h5?? Blundering her Queen on g5 with an easy fxg5. It’s probable that ChessQueen was in time trouble, considering the game ends in about two more moves with Black running out of time.  From one view, it can just look like a game between two beginners, we laugh a bit and go along our way. But the case builds as we watch more games.

https://lichess.org/study/Cily05PW/lRP1IrqT

ChessQueen63 v Ascidzz

I also had the chance to play against ChessQueen63 in a Caro-Kann (I never play the Caro-Kann but when you slip you just have to suck it up!). I was out at Lothian having dinner with a friend during the tournament, so I wasn’t entirely paying attention, which is my bad. 17. Rg3 I can’t help but laugh at, because it’s a move toward me with such an obvious threat at g7. I knew that I needed to devise a plan or else White was gonna figure something out. 18. Bxc5 this makes the position rather drawish. White’s Bishop is rather nice on d6 at the moment with the attachment to the pawn on e5. I was rather comfortable here and ideas could now be modified by this dramatic change in the position. I understand that the players of the club are at varying degrees of understanding what they’re doing when they’re playing. And sometimes what happens is when we run out of moves to make, if there is something to take, then we get it out of the way. And this is a dangerous way of thinking if you want to not lose your games.

19. …Qb6 Black is eyeing the pawn on b2, although the diagonal is also now occupied by the Queen which is nice as well. The plan is to play a6 to get the Knight away and take the b-pawn.

20. A4 White tries to defend the b5 Knight because they didn’t think about the fact that it could be kicked away with a6. These are the types of things that we have to watch for when we place our Knights and Bishops on places we think are useful posts.  23. Nxe8! I completely did not see that these shenanigans were going on in my house. I was more concerned about the rook on b1. I had been looking at it since the other rook left the file and the Queenside knight was still on its first square. I knew White needed to get something back there. And i wanted to play with the Knight a bit. So I had d4 in the tuck for a very long time to get the Knight out. Things may have been looking bleak for me with all my pieces getting gobbled up. Incoming was another fork on my ugly Bishop on d7. But I felt that I had enough resources to mount an attack on White’s soft back rank. So I offered the queen trade on f5 to block White’s checking threat on f6 and whatever else they could do. And the one time ChessQueen63 decides not to take the piece in front of her, it’s a blunder, and she should have taken the Queen. Because now one move could end it all for my opponent. It’s the thread that holds Black any chances of coming out of this alive. Stockfish gives mate in 11 for White after 28. Ne4! With protection from the Queen. Black is never getting a chance at Hollywood with that kind of play. But ChessQueen63 puts up one hell of a fight  She had more games just like these that just shows that she’s a beginner, not because she can’t make something happen on the board but that she just thinks certain ways about the positions still that she doesn’t always know how to make progress. But she does know that she should.

ChessQueen63 v Politics_Matter

https://lichess.org/study/Cily05PW/nC9Fylqe 

Ramdinger v ChessQueen63

https://lichess.org/study/Cily05PW/Ivzl1YSQ

This game is again indicative of some of ChessQueen63’s amateur habits that we are trying to help you guys to break so you can play your best chess, and it also shines a light on her tactical awareness. This is a dangerous player, do not think she doesn’t know how to spice a position up and spot weaknesses in her opponent’s position. Even after 17. …Rh8 Black has occupation of the h-file, White’s kingside is weakened. And ChessQueen63 starts to build up an attack toward the king by doubling up on the h-file. It may be a little too early for someone of ramdinger’s strength  (so she has to think a little further to get White to make her plan work), but ChessQueen looks for long-term advantages. Even her previous move 16. …Rf8 was indicative of her making a long-term plan toward the Knight perhaps on f3. When the Knight moved she moved the rook back to the open h-file, where it may have seemed that White knew that something was being planned toward his Knight. ChessQueen63 has a mind for attacking in Chess, and she is a great example of a player who needs more exposure to more critical games to improve her awareness of the board.

ChessQueen63 v IWillWinNOMatterWhat

https://lichess.org/study/Cily05PW/5PocLBLa

This game is pretty well-annotated, as all the games are annotated (follow the links to follow helpful annotations from games!). It’s a pretty exciting one.

As of right now, I am just taking the time out to acknowledge inspirational chess when I see it, and ChessQueen63 has really been inspirational for this week’s chess media brought to you by the UCR Chess Club team. We want to thank her and everyone for bringing fun and competitiveness to the tournament. 

Thank you again to everyone who participated in this past week’s Biweekly Friday Arena!