Research

the vacation of an economic historian: Falu copper mine, summer of 2014.



this page introduces my on-going research. See publications page for already published research. 


My research is as of spring 2024 based in three projects:



Income distribution in Sweden 1870-1970

Jakob Molinder, Svante Prado and I are working on new estimates for incomes and income inequality in Sweden 1870-1970. We have a massive new sample of individual-level incomes from a random sample of parishes and cities in the country. This will allow us to analyze the drivers of inequality in a much more fine-tuned way than previous research, distinguishing between different factors such as regional differences, gender differences, blue-collar and white-collar pay differentials, differences between capital incomes and labour incomes, and so on. Our sample consists of individual-level data and is very large: in total, somewhat above 200,000 taxpayers.

So far, we have written a paper on Stockholm 1870 to 1970 which has been presented in Gothenburg, Cambridge, Paris and Lund, and which is published in Explorations in Economic History. Read the article here.

Jakob and I have also written a related paper on the incomes of the wealthiest Swedes 1910-1950, building on a new sample (c. 15 000) of taxation records from two of Sweden's wealthiest areas, Djursholm, and Östermalm. Read the working paper here. The paper will be published in Journal of Economic History.

Anton Svensson and I have written a paper on incomes and income inequality in Malmö 1900 to 1950, building both on the random sample and a strategic sample for poor and rich neighbourhoods in Malmö. This paper was published in the Scandinavian Economic History Review, number 1 2023. Read the article here.

As of 2024, we are also working on a paper on the country as a whole, where new estimates of incomes in the rural sector become very important, and a paper on the national income 1870-1950 calculated from the income side and how these estimates revise what we know from GDP estimates from the production side. Both papers were presented at the European Social Science History Conference in Gothenburg in April 2023, and the Swedish Economic History Meeting in Lund in September 2023. 


Neoliberalism in the Nordics

Neoliberalism in the Nordics is a large research program, active 2020-2025 and led by professor Jenny Andersson of Uppsala University. Within this programme I am working especially on wage bargaining and economic policy. As of 2023, I am working on four papers and a book chapter within this project. 

One paper is on the social meaning of the wage bargaining round in Sweden since the 1960s. My argument is that the wage bargaining round still is quite centralized in Sweden, so on a formal level it looks like there is a lot of continuity in Swedish industrial relations, but that the role the wage bargaining round plays in the political economy, is very different today compared to the corporatist 1960s and 1970s. This paper was published as a working paper in January 2023; read it here. It will be published in Economic and Industrial Democracy.

Another paper is on how economic policymakers interpreted and acted upon the profit squeeze of the late 1970s. 

A third paper discusses the Swedish economic policy knowledge regime since the 1920s, building on Campbell and Pedersen's conceptualization of where inputs in the economic policy debates come from.

A fourth paper discusses the rise of the "Billionaires in the welfare state" in Sweden since the 1970s.

I am also writing a book chapter on long-run income inequality and political economy in Sweden.


Production and living standards in southern Sweden since c. 1650

Since 2020, Mats Olsson, PhD student Marcus Falk and I are working on a project, financed by Handelsbankens forskningsstiftelser, on material culture and living standards in Sweden and Denmark c. 1680-1860, building especially on probate inventories from six rural areas and from two towns, Malmo and Ystad. The first paper from the project is written by the three of us and explores the productive capacity and subsistence strategies of south Swedish rural households 1680-1865. This is under review at an economic history journal. The second paper is written by Marcus and concerns consumption and living standards in the same period. 

During spring 2024 we write on the third paper of the project, on living standards in Malmö, Ystad and Falkenberg c. 1550-1865.


Land inequality, rural social structure and politics in Prussia and Sweden

As an offshoot of the inequality in Sweden 1870-1970 project, I'm working on a paper with Felix Kersting of Humboldt Universität zu Berlin on the importance (or not) of rural inequality for political developments in Prussia and Sweden in the late 1800s and first half of the 1900s. 

The Swedish inequality project builds especially on income tax returns. But it is crucial to triangulate the findings based on these sources with other methods and sources -- such as my paper with Patrick Svensson on rural labourers, based on probate inventories.The Swedish part of the paper with Felix builds in turn on a new dataset on rural inequality and other variables for all Swedish judicial districts (härader, about 250) and municipalities (about 2300). The inequality measures include the distribution of farm sizes and the share noble land, and also allow for linking to pre-existing calculations of inequality based on the 1872 and 1891 distribution of votes in municipalities. For more info about the paper and the database see here. As a whole, these calculations present a more well-rounded -- and geographically fine-grained -- set of estimates of inequality in rural Sweden c. 1900.


Long-run income distribution between capital and labour

Daniel Waldenström  (Research Institute of Industrial Economics) and I have a paper on the distribution of income between capital and labour and income inequality in the long run. We have assembled the largest data set yet of capital shares, with 21 countries at least back to the 1930s, and most back to the second half of the 19th century, and thus can provide the most comprehensive test of the relationship between capital shares and income inequality. The paper was published in the Journal of Economic History, September 2018.

Daniel, Enrico Rubolino (Lausanne) and I have followed the previous paper with a study on the determinants of capital shares in the long run, looking at factors such as democratization, world wars, unionization, and party politics. This has been published as an IZA discussion paper in April 2020; read here. It was also published as a WID.world working paper in May 2020 and you can read their summary of the paper here.




Work in progress

submitted/in process

“The Politics of Profits: Profit Squeeze, Macroeconomic Expertise and Economic Policy, Sweden 1975–1985”. My second paper in the Neoliberalism in the Nordics programme. Presented at the Nordic Labour History Conference in Copenhagen, January 2022, at a project workshop, February 2022, at Nordiska historikermötet, Gothenburg, August 2022, and at Svenska historikermötet, Umeå, June 2023. In preparation for submission to a journal.

“Wealth, work and industriousness 1670–1860: Evidence from rural Swedish probates”. With Marcus Falk and Mats Olsson, both Lund. Has been presented (by Marcus) at European Historical Economics Society conference, Groningen, 17-18 June 2022, (by Mats) at the World Economic History Congress, Paris, 25-29 July 2022, and (by Marcus) at Nordiska Historikermötet, Göteborg, 10 August 2022. Revise & resubmit at an economic history journal.

“The Revitalization of Wage Solidarity: the Politics of Inflation in Scandinavia”. With Kristin Alsos (FAFO, Oslo), Søren Kaj Andersen (FAOS, U of Copenhagen), Christian Lyhne Ibsen (FAOS, U of Copenhagen), and Kristine Neergaard (FAFO, Oslo). Submitted to an industrial relations journal.



currently working on

“What Determines the Capital Share over the Long Run of History?”. With Daniel Waldenström (IFN) and Enrico Rubolino (Lausanne). Presented in Lund, Luxembourg, Stockholm, Marseille, International Macro History Online Seminar, 18 November 2020, University of Chicago, 21 April 2022, University of Michigan, 25 April 2022, University of Helsinki, May 2023, Uppsala University, May 2023. Published as WID.world Working Paper 2020/08, read here. IZA Discussion Paper 13199, April 2020: read here. 

“Swedish Income Inequality 1870–1970: A Micro Data Approach”. With Jakob Molinder (Uppsala) and Svante Prado (Gothenburg): part of the Swedish incomes project. Presented at Economic History Society conference, Belfast, April 2019; European Historical Economics Society conference, Paris, August 2019, the 13th Swedish Economic History Meeting, Uppsala, October 2019; the European Social Science History Conference, Gothenburg, 14 April 2023; European Historical Economics Society, Vienna, 1-2 September 2023; the Swedish Economic History Meeting, Lund, 26-27 September 2023; Department of Sociology, Stockholm University, October 2023; Höstmötet, Malmö, 7-8 November 2023. Will be presented at Utrecht University, March 2024.

“New estimates of Swedish historical national accounts from the income side, 1870–1910”. With Svante Prado (Gothenburg) and Jakob Molinder (Uppsala). Will be presented at the the Swedish Economic History Meeting, Lund, 26-27 September 2023 and at the International Conference AGRICLIOMETRICS, Montevideo, Uruguay, 7-8 December 2023.

“Billionaires in the Welfare State: Sweden since 1970”. My third paper in the Neoliberalism in the Nordics programme. Presented in Oslo, May 2023.

“The Swedish Model and the Swedish Economic Policy Knowledge Regime, c. 1933–1982: The Case of Profits and Distribution”. My fourth paper in the Neoliberalism in the Nordics programme. Will be presented at the Swedish Economic History Meeting, Lund, 26-27 September 2023.

“The Longue Durée of Wages and Inequality: Sweden, 1870–2020”. A bookchapter for an edited volume, written within the Neoliberalism in the Nordics programme. Presented at the 29th International Conference of Europeanists, Reykjavik, June 2023.

“The Social Origins of Democracy and Authoritarianism Reconsidered: Prussia and Sweden in Comparison”.  With Felix Kersting, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin. Will be presented (by Felix) at the European Historical Economics Society Conference, 1-2 September 2023, Vienna, and (by me) at the 15th Swedish Economic History Meeting, Lund, 27-29 September 2023, University of Duisburg-Essen, January 2024, the Historical Study of States and Regimes Research Lab, 19 January 2024, and the Virtual Workshop in Historical Political Economy, 2 May 2024. For more info see here.




Resting papers

"How Proletarian Were the Proletarians? A New Look on the Living Standards of the Swedish Working Class during Industrialization". One for the future.

"En gemensam skandinavisk väg till demokratin? Konstitutioner och rörelser, ca 1809-1921". Presenterat på Svenska ekonomisk-historiska mötet i Göteborg, 8-9 oktober 2021. A plan for a future project.