Mamdani maintains lead as Sliwa overtakes Cuomo

(10/2/25) - A new Green Strategy Polling survey finds Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani maintaining a commanding lead in the race for New York City mayor, earning 46% of likely voters’ support — nearly doubling that of his closest rival.

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican nominee, sits at 27%, buoyed by strong support in Staten Island and Brooklyn, while Andrew Cuomo, running as an independent, draws 25%, his base largely concentrated among older Manhattan and Bronx Democrats.

The numbers suggest Mamdani’s message of housing reform, climate investment, and transit equity has resonated widely across boroughs, particularly among younger voters and renters. Despite Cuomo’s name recognition and Sliwa’s media presence, both appear to be splitting the anti-progressive vote, giving Mamdani a clear structural advantage heading into the winter stretch of the campaign. For the majority of the race, Cuomo has performed higher than Sliwa in polls, but the margin between the two has been narrowing in recent weeks. Both candidates claim they would be able to beat Mamdani.

Poll Methodology:
This Green Strategy Polling survey of 1,042 likely New York City voters was conducted October 28–30, 2025, using a combination of online and live phone interviews. The margin of error is ±3.2 percentage points.