Factor 2 - Climate Impacts Data Focus Area
Last Updated - April 2024
PURPOSE AND KEY QUESTIONS FOR THE CLIMATE IMPACTS FACTOR
PURPOSE AND OVERVIEW
Purpose and Overview: For the climate impacts section ‘broader context’ refers to understanding the impacts of the earth's changing climate; such as: extreme heat, sea level rise, wildfire, and extreme precipitation. This factor aims to localize, explain, and provide narratives for educators and school communities to better understand and make sense of environmental and climate related data projections over the course of four decades (2025-2035, 2035-2045, 2045-2055, 2055-2065).
The information in this climate impacts section can be used in a variety of ways by school communities and leaders; for example:
Become more familiar with climate impacts in general and how they will impact at the local level
Explore which climate impacts might be most relevant to one's school community
Participate in an experiential role-play simulation to consider the big picture of these climate impacts in a school year across multiple decades - see an example of the role-play simulation here: Climate Impacts Simulation
Consider how to prepare for different climate impacts as part of an overall emergency planning process - see example from San Mateo County: Climate Impacts for Schools - Overview and Adaptation Analysis for San Mateo County.
Video Overview of Broader Context Factor 2- Impacts of Climate Change
Key Questions
Key Questions: The climate impacts focus area is centered around the following key questions:
Primary (Core) Question: What are the projected climate impacts for each county in California in the next three-to-four decades?
Secondary Question: Which climate impacts have the greatest threat to the core functions of TK-12 schools, and what does the data show for how these impacts will affect each county region?
Secondary Question: How are these climate impacts impacting the following aspects of school: school infrastructure and resources, the physical and mental health of students and employees, and the ability to learn and play safely and without ongoing climate related disruptions?
Data Methodology
General Overview to the Data Sources: The government data sources used for the Climate Impacts Data Focus Area come from a number of different government, academic, and non-governmental data sources that were chosen for their availability, credibility, and wealth of information. Sources include the following:
Cal-Adapt is used for extreme heat data, wildfire probability, and extreme precipitation
Risk Finder is used to predict rising sea levels
CDPH Climate Change and Health Profile Reports are used in tandem with Cal-Adapt to find a general overview of precipitation data and highlight extreme precipitation events
Climate Vulnerability Index is used for all climate impacts focus areas
The Climate Impacts Data Focus Area follows the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) of +4.5, which is a mid-range scenario. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are models or scenarios that account for time and how anthropogenic impact on the environment will impact ecosystems and the climate. RCPs are commonly referenced in climate change literature, especially within the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.
In order to create a more simplified tool, custom date ranges were selected and averaged from the initial sources before being added to the spreadsheet for this initiative. Please visit the source websites for more detailed versions of the climate impact projections. Step by step methodology can be found here.
CLIMATE IMPACTS BY INDICATOR
Climate Impacts Walkthrough.webmVideo: How to Use Data Interactives
This video provides an overview of how to utilize the Tableau Interactive Maps below to view the projected climate impacts over time. It includes how to use the filters and tools within the visualizations to see how the impacts will change in each county for date ranges starting in 2020 and spanning to 2059. Written instructions can also be found in each section.
Extreme Heat
As the climate changes in California, one of the more serious threats to the public health of Californians will stem primarily from the higher frequency of extreme conditions, principally more frequent, more intense, and longer heat waves.
Data Indicator Definitions
Extreme heat or heat waves occur when the temperature reaches extremely high levels or when the combination of heat and humidity cause the air to become oppressive (CDC, 2019).
An extreme heat day or warm night is defined as a day in a year when the daily maximum/minimum temperature exceeds the 98th historical percentile of daily maximum/minimum temperatures based on observed historical data from 1961–1990 between April and October (CAL Adapt, 2023)
Data Sources
Visualization
The visualization to the right shows the average number of days of high heat projected between 2020 and 2059.
Regions seeing fewer high heat days are shown in green. Regions seeing 20 or more high heat days are shown in yellow to red.
Use the dropdown to the right of the map to select the date range.
Hover over or click on each county to view the specific data for that county.
Sea Level Rise
Sea level rise, driven by global warming's thermal expansion and melting land ice, poses significant threats to California. California’s extensive coastline faces increased erosion, flooding, and saltwater intrusion into freshwater sources. Critical infrastructures and industries in major cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles are vulnerable and coastal habitats risk degradation. California will be forced to address these challenges through reconstruction of coastal infrastructure, updating building codes, habitat restoration, and long-term strategic planning.
Data Indicator Definitions
Sea level rise refers to the gradual increase in the average level of Earth’s oceans as a result of melting polar ice caps and glaciers, along with the expansion of seawater as it warms
Analysis uses median local sea level projections based on the intermediate scenario from NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083 (2017), intended for the 2018 U.S. National Climate Assessment. Sea level rise is relative to a 1992 baseline. Projected values share the same scale as this tool's maps when taken as heights above the 1992 high tide line
Data Sources
Visualization
The visualization to the right shows the average sea level rise in inches projected between 2020 and 2059.
Regions seeing little to no sea level rise are show in white (such as the inland counties). Regions seeing between 1-18 inches of sea level rise are shown in varying shades of teal.
Use the dropdown to the right of the map to select the date range.
Hover over or click on each county to view the specific data for that county.
Wildfire
Wildfires are characterized by their ability to quickly consume large areas of land, releasing significant heat and producing smoke. Wildfires can have severe environmental, economic, and social impacts, including the destruction of ecosystems, loss of wildlife habitat, and threats to human life and property.
Data Indicator Definitions
Wildfires are uncontrolled fires that spread rapidly through vegetation, such as forests, grasslands, or shrublands. These fires can be ignited by various sources, including lightning, human activities, or in the unlikely event of a volcanic eruption.
Wildfire scenario projections produced by Dr. LeRoy Westerling at the University of California Merced, using a statistical model based on historical data of climate, vegetation, population density, and fire history coupled with regionally downscaled LOCA climate projections. Details are described in Westerling, 2018
Data Sources
Visualization
The visualization above shows the average probability that a county will experience at least one wildfire per decade between 2020 and 2059.
Regions with no data and/or 0 probability are shown in yellow. Regions in red have a high probability of experiencing at least one wildfire every decade.
Use the dropdown to the right of the map to select the date range.
Hover over or click on each county to view the specific data for that county.
Precipitation and Storms
In California, precipitation is crucial for replenishing water supplies, including reservoirs and mountain snowpack. However, due to climate change, normal precipitation events have increasingly become intense storms that can lead to flooding that can damage habitats and pose risks to human safety and property. In addition, erosive events like landslides, mudslides, and debris flows are triggered by heavy rainfall, impacting ecosystems and threatening communities, especially those recovering from wildfires. Infrastructure damage, coastal erosion, and water quality issues further contribute to the complex challenges posed by storms, requiring a comprehensive approach to mitigate their environmental and societal impacts.
Data Indicator Definitions
An extreme weather event is an occurrence that is significantly different from typical weather at a specific location and time of year. Extreme precipitation events can lead to flooding, mudslides and other damaging events. In a changing climate the intensity and frequency of such events will likely change across California. This tool visualizes how climate models predict extreme precipitation events will change over the 21st century.
Daily climate projections for California at a resolution of 1/16° (about 6 km, or 3.7 miles) generated to support climate change impact studies for California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. The data, derived from 32 coarse-resolution (~100 km) global climate models from the CMIP5 archive, were bias corrected and downscaled using the Localized Constructed Analogues (LOCA) statistical method. The data cover 1950-2005 for the historical period and 2006-2100 (some models stop in 2099) for two future climate projections. Details are described in Pierce et al., 2018. It should noted that precipitation data could not provide discrete decadal data. Rather, it only listed a prediction for 2050; therefore precipitation data is extrapolated based on the prediction for 2050.
Data Sources
Visualization
The visualization above shows the difference in rainfall (in inches) from the Modeled Baseline and the forecasts between 2020 and 2059.
Regions with an average of 10 inches less than the baseline are show in in tan. Regions with an average of 10 inches more than baseline are shown in dark blue.
Use the dropdown to the right of the map to select the date range.
Hover over or click on each county to view the specific data for that county.
Overall, we can see that the average amount of rainfall does change somewhat over time, but there is not a linear trend towards more or less rain.
CLIMATE IMPACTS BY COUNTY
Below is an overview of all of the impacts by county. This table shows the overall impacts a county might experience throughout time due to climate change.
The filter at the top on the data table can be used to select the county (see video walkthrough to the right).
Each type of climate impact is shown in a different, color coded row, including the average projected impact by decade starting with 2020-2029 and ending with 2050-2059.
*Note: the looker table sometimes takes a while to load. If you don't see anything or get an error, try reloading.
If the problem persists, please contact swhiting@tenstrands.org
Climate Impacts County Overview Walkthrough.webm