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Core Question: What are the projected climate impacts for each county in California in the next three to four decades?
Additional Questions:
Which climate impacts have the greatest threat to the core functions of TK-12 schools, and what does the data show for how these impacts will affect each county region?
How are these climate impacts impacting the following aspects of school: school infrastructure and resources, the physical and mental health of students and employees, and the ability to learn and play safely and without ongoing climate-related disruptions?
Data Forecasts
This video provides an overview of how to utilize the Tableau Interactive Maps below to view the projected climate impacts over time. It includes how to use the filters and tools within the visualizations to see how the impacts will change in each county for date ranges starting in 2020 and spanning to 2059. Written instructions can also be found in each section.
Video: How to Use Data Interactives
Data Indicator Definitions
Extreme heat or heat waves occur when the temperature reaches extremely high levels or when the combination of heat and humidity cause the air to become oppressive (CDC, 2019).
An extreme heat day or warm night can be defined in multiple ways:
Above High Heat Threshold: a day in a year when the daily maximum/minimum temperature exceeds the 98th historical percentile of daily maximum/minimum temperatures based on observed historical data from 1961–1990 between April and October (CAL Adapt, 2023). This means that a day is considered hot if it is above what would be considered the normal range of temperatures based on historical data.
Above 87 Degrees: a day in the year that exceeds the new California guidelines for what is safe for workers without measures to cool the workplace. However, the temperature that can be dangerous to student learning and health can vary depending on humidity (see https://www.weather.gov/ama/heatindex)
Data Sources
Visualization
The two visualizations below show the average number of days of high heat projected between 2020 and 2059.
Directions:
Use the dropdown menu on the bottom left corner of the map to filter for a specific decade.
Hover over or click on each county to view the specific data for that county.
The map above shows the number of days above the county's high heat threshold.
Counties in Yellow have zero days above their heat threshold.
Counties in Red have two months or more of days above their heat threshold.
The map above shows the number of days above 87 degrees.
Counties in Green have zero days above 87 degrees
Counties in Red have four months or more above 87 degrees.
Why map the high heat in more than one way?
While some counties seem to be cooler when looking at 87 degrees or higher map, all of the counties will see days above their high heat threshold. Those counties with lower high heat thresholds may not have the infrastructure to cool classrooms or provide shade for students. While a day in the lower 80s might not pose immediate health risks to students, the National Weather Service Heat Index shows that "fatigue is possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity," even starting at 80 degrees, which can lead to learning loss over time.
Also, the case can be made that those counties with higher heat indexes should be equipped for high heat; however, when we look at the number of days above the heat threshold we can see that even those counties that were historically hotter will be experiencing more days (and in some counties over two months) above what would be considered normal temperatures for that area.
Potential Disruption to Schools and Impact on Student and Staff
High temperatures impact a student's ability to focus and learn, and can put strain on school building facilities. Children are more likely to be affected by high heat than healthy adults (with the exception of elderly) (CDC). When classrooms are subject to high heat, students can become distracted, and experience discomfort such as sweating, panting, or the dilation of blood vessels. Extreme temperatures also put students and staff at risk of developing a heat stroke, heat exhaustion, or becoming dehydrated (CDC). High temperatures inside buildings can also exacerbate existing medical conditions like asthma or abnormal blood pressure.
Due to high temperatures and inadequate settings, schools have closed and declared “a high heat day”, or shifted to remote learning. For example, In 2023 a handful of school districts across the United States canceled recess due to high heat (NPR, 2023), and at the start of the school year in 2024-25 a number of Southern California school districts adjusted to half days due to temperatures reaching over 100 degrees and schools not having proper access to air conditioning in buildings or shade on school grounds (KTLA, 2024). High heat and lack of access to air conditioning in schools exacerbates educational inequity, with a full 5 percent of the gap in test scores between Black and Latinx students and their White counterparts attributed to disproportionate exposure to excessively hot classrooms. Low-income schools and schools that serve more students of color are less likely to have air conditioning. And, hot classrooms without air conditioning are linked to increases in student absenteeism and increased disciplinary referrals.
High Heat Probability Data
for temperatures over Eighty-Seven degrees Fahrenheit (87° F)
*Note that individual school data can be found at the CA Schools Climate Hazards Dashboard
Because students may not have access to air conditioned homes or alternative locations for remote learning, this can limit their ability to learn in a safe and healthy environment during high heat days when school campuses are closed. High heat can also impact transportation infrastructure and cause delays for students/staff traveling to and from school.
Summary of Data Analysis on High Heat:
All California counties are vulnerable to issues of high heat. By 2025 there are at least 16 counties that are projected to have over 120 days of high heat, leaving at least 1.6 million students extremely vulnerable to heat related illnesses for a significant portion of the school year.
Counties with the most projected heat days in all decades above 87 degrees, and above the high heat threshold: Inyo, Imperial, Los Angeles, Riverside, and San Bernardino.
Counties with a significant increase in high heat days above current: Alameda, Contra Costa, Merced, Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, San Joaquin, Sonoma, and Ventura.
Other Counties who will have both a high number of heat days and will see a significant increase in days include: Colusa, Fresno, Kern, Kings, Merced, Mono, Sacramento, San Diego, Sutter, Tulare, Ventura, and Yolo.
Schools need to have natural and built cooling infrastructure in place to keep kids safe both indoors and outdoors for instruction, eating, and play. Too many schools and districts are ill-equipped to do this, with direct impacts on student learning and educational equity. Our climate has already shifted to an increase in high heat days, and data shows that this will continue to increase as the decades progress. Schools cannot afford to cancel school due to high heat disaster days, and students cannot afford the potential amount of learning loss they will incur if schools continue to remain unprepared to mitigate high heat temperatures indoor and outdoors.
Recommendations for School Leaders and Resources for Taking Action
It is recommended to consider all of the Readiness and Emergency Management for Schools (REMS) phases of emergency planning for each impact:
Prevent (Mitigate): This prevention (or mitigation) phase involves taking actions to reduce or eliminate risks and hazards before they happen.
Preparedness: The preparedness phase involves developing plans and procedures to ensure schools are ready to respond to emergencies.
Respond: The response phase takes place during an actual emergency, when schools take immediate action to protect students, staff, and visitors.
Recovery: The recovery phase happens after the immediate emergency is over, and is focused on restoring the physical environment, and supporting students, families, and employees to return to learning routines as soon as possible.
High Heat in Buildings and Grounds Mitigation/Prevention Examples:
Climate Control: Air conditioning serves as a mitigation strategy for high heat by providing a controlled climate that reduces indoor temperatures and protecting individuals from heat-related illnesses.
Passive Ventilation and Cross ventilation: Using windows, vents, and natural airflow to circulate cool air.
Shade for Buildings and Grounds: Installing external shades, awnings, sail shades, or planting trees to block direct sunlight and reduce indoor and outdoor heat gain.
Cool Roofs: Applying reflective materials or lighter-colored roofing to reduce heat absorption from sunlight.
Green Roofs and Walls: Growing vegetation on roofs or walls, which provides insulation and cools through evapotranspiration.
Other Greening: Replacing any unnecessary asphalt (not needed for ball play or parking) with natural landscaping that can be utilized for learning, play, and biodiversity improvements.
Pasadena Unified School District and Long Beach Unified School District are taking action to mitigate outdoor extreme heat by investing in green schoolyards, including investments in nature-based solutions for shade and schoolyard surfaces. Learn about what they are doing by watching the Open Door Webinar from September 2024: Mitigation Outdoor Extreme Heat with Schoolyard Greening.
For additional resources regarding heat and health and heat and schools visit the following resources:
UCLA Luskin Center for Innovation's Guidance for an Equitable and Effective Extreme Heat Strategy in California and Policy Brief Resources: Of special note for educators are the resources regarding high heat and schools.
American is All In July 2024 Webinar - Understanding & Adapting to High Heat.
National Weather Service Heat Index: The heat index, also known as the apparent temperature, is what the temperature feels like to the human body when relative humidity is combined with the air temperature, and includes considerations for when people are exposed to direct sunlight. The heat index has supported this initiative with identifying 87 Degrees Fahrenheit as a key temperature for caution.
Relevant High Heat and Safety Laws (explore policies further here):
SB 1248 (Signed into Law in September 2024) - High Heat Protections for TK-12 Schools for P.E. and Athletics
AB 1653 (Signed into Law in October 2023 and Enacted on July 1, 2024): Interscholastic Athletic Programs and Protections for High Heat - Learn more in this Sep 2024 Article from Cal Matters: "How a New CA Law will Shield Athletes from High Heat"
CAL/OSHA Heat Illness Prevention Standards, Guidance and Resources - California Code of Regulations, Title 8 (T8CCR), sections 3395 (2006) and 3396 (2024). Learn more about Title 8 and Heat Illness Prevention at the Department of Industrial Relations.
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