Embedded Files
Key Questions
Core Question: What are the projected climate impacts for each county in California in the next three to four decades?
Additional Questions:
Which climate impacts have the greatest threat to the core functions of TK-12 schools, and what does the data show for how these impacts will affect each county region?
How are these climate impacts impacting the following aspects of school: school infrastructure and resources, the physical and mental health of students and employees, and the ability to learn and play safely and without ongoing climate-related disruptions?
Data Forecasts
This video provides an overview of how to utilize the Tableau Interactive Maps below to view the projected climate impacts over time. It includes how to use the filters and tools within the visualizations to see how the impacts will change in each county for date ranges starting in 2020 and spanning to 2059. Written instructions can also be found in each section.
Video: How to Use Data Interactives
Data Indicator Definitions
Sea level rise refers to the gradual increase in the average level of Earth’s oceans as a result of melting polar ice caps and glaciers, along with the expansion of seawater as it warms
Analysis uses median local sea level projections based on the intermediate scenario from NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 083 (2017), intended for the 2018 U.S. National Climate Assessment. Sea level rise is relative to a 1992 baseline. Projected values share the same scale as this tool's maps when taken as heights above the 1992 high tide line
Data Sources
Visualization
The visualization to the right shows the average sea level rise in inches projected between 2020 and 2059.
Regions seeing little to no sea level rise are show in white (such as the inland counties). Regions seeing between 1-18 inches of sea level rise are shown in varying shades of teal.
Use the dropdown to the right of the map to select the date range.
Hover over or click on each county to view the specific data for that county.
Potential Disruption to Schools and Impact on Student and Staff
Schools on the coast are particularly sensitive to flooding from sea level rise. There are generally two types of floods associated with sea level rise:
Coastal Floods: This is when high tides or storm surges push ocean and bay water further onto dry land.
Groundwater Floods: This is when ocean and bay water saturates the soil under the shore and drives up the layer of freshwater floating above. If this happens too much it will push through soil or paving and inundate the built landscape.
This flooding can cause a building or entire campus to be closed until the building can be made safe again. Closures can be short term, or could lead to permanently retiring a facility. In either case, students will need to be relocated, causing disruptions and crowding of other facilities. Coastal flooding may also impact transportation and road ways, making it difficult for students to get to and from school campuses. Students' homes may be impacted by coastal flooding and erosion, which would lead to displacement or inability to shift to remote learning. It is important to note that historically marginalized sub groups within the school community may be impacted more severely than higher income families, which might lead to inequities in disruptions to learning.
Summary of Data Analysis on Sea Level Rise:
Sea level rise is an issue for the coastal communities and their adjacent or neighboring communities. Over half of the schools and students within California are vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. Due to high groundwater in some coastal communities, there are schools that are already experiencing issues such as routine flooding during high tide, or extreme flooding when high tide combines with heavy rain.
Sea Level Rise Data for High Risk Coastal and Adjacent Risk Communities
School districts most vulnerable to sea level rise need to develop and implement plans to mitigate and respond to the impacts of sea level rise in the short term, and to begin developing long term plans to coordinate the movement of school communities (people and school campuses) away from the most at risk areas. To learn more about how sea level rise is already impacting schools in the Bay Area, and some of the ways people have begun to adapt to change, visit the 2024 KQED article: See Which Bay Area Schools Are at Risk From Rising Seas.
From a statewide perspective all counties need to be considering the impact of migration and school closures as decisions are made about managed retreat and people migrating inland.
Recommendations for School Leaders and Resources for Taking Action
It is recommended to consider all of the Readiness and Emergency Management for Schools (REMS) phases of emergency planning for each impact:
Prevent (Mitigate): This prevention (or mitigation) phase involves taking actions to reduce or eliminate risks and hazards before they happen.
Preparedness: The preparedness phase involves developing plans and procedures to ensure schools are ready to respond to emergencies.
Respond: The response phase takes place during an actual emergency, when schools take immediate action to protect students, staff, and visitors.
Recovery: The recovery phase happens after the immediate emergency is over, and is focused on restoring the physical environment, and supporting students, families, and employees to return to learning routines as soon as possible.
Sea Level Rise Mitigation/Prevention Examples:
Building Sea Walls and Barriers and Elevate Infrastructure: Construct physical barriers, such as sea walls, levees, and floodgates, and raise buildings, roads, and critical infrastructure above projected sea level rise to protect them from flooding.
Flood Management Systems: Upgrade drainage systems and implement stormwater management solutions to reduce flooding risks.
Natural Defenses: Support the restoration of coastal ecosystems like mangroves, salt marshes, and coral reefs that act as buffers by absorbing wave energy and preventing erosion.
Managed Retreat: Strategically relocate schools to areas less vulnerable to sea level rise.
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