Wildfires are characterized by their ability to quickly consume large areas of land, releasing significant heat and producing smoke. Wildfires can have severe environmental, economic, and social impacts, including the destruction of ecosystems, loss of wildlife habitat, and threats to human life and property.
Core Question: What are the projected climate impacts for each county in California in the next three to four decades?
Additional Questions:
Which climate impacts have the greatest threat to the core functions of TK-12 schools, and what does the data show for how these impacts will affect each county region?
How are these climate impacts impacting the following aspects of school: school infrastructure and resources, the physical and mental health of students and employees, and the ability to learn and play safely and without ongoing climate-related disruptions?
This video provides an overview of how to utilize the Tableau Interactive Maps below to view the projected climate impacts over time. It includes how to use the filters and tools within the visualizations to see how the impacts will change in each county for date ranges starting in 2020 and spanning to 2059. Written instructions can also be found in each section.
Video: How to Use Data Interactives
Data Indicator Definitions
Wildfires are uncontrolled fires that spread rapidly through vegetation, such as forests, grasslands, or shrublands. These fires can be ignited by various sources, including lightning, human activities, or in the unlikely event of a volcanic eruption.
Wildfire scenario projections produced by Dr. LeRoy Westerling at the University of California Merced, using a statistical model based on historical data of climate, vegetation, population density, and fire history coupled with regionally downscaled LOCA climate projections. Details are described in Westerling, 2018
Data Sources
Visualization
The color scale shows the FEMA Wildfire Risk Index. Regions with very low risk are shown in yellow. Regions in dark red have a high very high risk of wildfire. Note that there is not a category for "no risk" in the FEMA index.
The size of the circles in the visualization above shows the average amount of land (in hectares) that was modeled to have burned annually between 1960-1999 in the baseline or is projected to burn each year during the decade selected between 2020 and 2059.
Use the dropdown to the right of the map to select the date range.
Hover over or click on each county to view the specific data for that county.
Wildfires can cause significant disruptions to teaching and learning through short or extended school closures. When wildfires burn, the greatest risk to schools and children is fire and poor air quality from smoke. Students and school communities are susceptible to the fire, smoke, power outages, and particle pollution from burning structures (CalMatters). After a wildfire, members of the community are also vulnerable to water and soil contamination alongside displacement due to the loss of homes or community structures.
Wildfire Probability Data: In general, all California counties have some vulnerability to wildfire risk. As can be seen in the table to the right, this is experienced in a range of low-to-high risk.
Summary of Data Analysis on Wildfire Risk: Every county in California is experiencing the probability of wildfire and the risk of exposure to wildfire smoke. There are some counties that are much more vulnerable to this risk than others, with at least 31 counties enrolling over 4.1 million students at high wildfire risk. It is time that California schools prepare for wildfires to at least the same degree that school communities are currently required to prepare for earthquakes - by planning and improving building codes, transportation, communications, and education. This is critical for protecting students and the faculty and staff who support them. Fortunately for schools, emergency preparedness for wildfires is generally seasonal with the highest risk taking place in the drier and hotter months of the year.
It is recommended to consider all of the Readiness and Emergency Management for Schools (REMS) phases of emergency planning for each impact:
Prevent (Mitigate): This prevention (or mitigation) phase involves taking actions to reduce or eliminate risks and hazards before they happen.
Preparedness: The preparedness phase involves developing plans and procedures to ensure schools are ready to respond to emergencies.
Respond: The response phase takes place during an actual emergency, when schools take immediate action to protect students, staff, and visitors.
Recovery: The recovery phase happens after the immediate emergency is over, and is focused on restoring the physical environment, and supporting students, families, and employees to return to learning routines as soon as possible.
Mitigation/Prevention Examples:
Wildfires:
Develop and implement a grounds management plan that prioritizes plants adapted to that local ecosystem and stormwater management to increase soil health.
Regularly removing dry vegetation, dead trees, and underbrush to reduce fuel sources that wildfires can use to spread. And create clear areas or barriers (such as roads or cleared land) that stop or slow the spread of wildfires by removing vegetation.
Retrofit facilities with fire resistant materials, removing entry points for embers, and creating defensible perimeters around buildings.
Educate the public on fire safety practices, such as safe use of outdoor equipment, campfires, and avoiding activities that can spark fires, especially during dry seasons.
Wildfire Smoke:
Install air quality monitoring systems and provide real-time information to help leaders respond to dangerous smoke levels.
Using HEPA air filters in HVAC systems and sealing windows and doors to keep indoor air clean and free from smoke during wildfire events.
Educate the public on how to protect themselves from smoke exposure, such as wearing masks, limiting outdoor activities, and using air purifiers.
The San Mateo County Office of Education has begun to adopt a “climate ready mindset” into their emergency planning, which is rooted in their understanding of how critical this climate readiness is for the preparedness phase. Check out their story in the April 2024 Open Door webinar (30:30 - 40:30) , and in the May 2024 Spotlight feature: Climate Change and Emergency Management at SMCOE.
