Thinking
We never stop thinking, and sometimes we come up with some ideas that we think are worth sharing. We love contracts to explore issues and push our collective community's thinking, and when appropriate we write up our thoughts and arguments in academic articles and elsewhere. Below are some descriptions of consulting contracts we've had in which the objective is to think and push boundaries, as well as abstracts of research that we've had published in leading academic journals.*
*the research articles listed below are not inclusive of all articles that Swift Creek Consulting associates have published
Chris Joseph, Thomas I. Gunton, James Hoffele, and Martha Baldwin. 2023. Improving cumulative effects assessment: alternative approaches based upon an expert survey and literature review. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal. 41(2): 162-174 https://doi.org/10.1080/14615517.2023.2170093
Cumulative effects assessment has been a longstanding challenge and is perhaps the most crucial component of project-level impact assessment. Alternative approaches to advance project-level cumulative effects assessment are developed based upon the findings of a literature review and key informant interviews. Alternative approaches are organized around key themes and cover: baselines; hybridization of sequential and integrated assessment; regional environmental assessment; the omnipresence of cumulative effects in project-level assessment; professional culture; and value-centrism.
Limited pdfs available here: https://www.tandfonline.com/eprint/D8JFFUSKP9XKZQFZEA65/full?target=10.1080/14615517.2023.2170093
Health Impact Assessment Research (Impact Assessment Agency of Canada, 2020/1)
With the promulgation of the Impact Assessment Act in 2019, Canada's federal impact assessment process now has a strong interest in the potential health impacts of major projects. The Impact Assessment Agency of Canada (IAAC) has been developing guidance for practitioners, including with respect to health impact assessment (HIA), but by late 2020 there were various gaps in this guidance. Swift Creek Consulting was awarded a research contract over late 2020 through early 2021 to examine several specific topics within HIA. The research was done through a collaborative process with the IAAC's Technical Advisory Committee. We produced five memos as part of this work: (1) an overview of the rest of the memos, (2) a critique of the existing Health, Social, Economic guidance and the Tailored Impact Statement Guidelines template, (3) a memo on how HIA should be done within and as part of the broader impact assessment process, (4) a memo on mental health impacts associated with environmental change (i.e., ecological grief, solastalgia, and risk perception), and (5) a memo on research ethics in HIA. Each memo was produced through a synthesis of literature review, interviews with government/academics/consultants, and professional judgment. Each memo contains context on the topic and then tools for practitioners and others involved in HIA, followed by discussions of outstanding issues. The IAAC released three of the five memos publicly here:
Chris Joseph, Thomas I. Gunton, and James Hoffele. 2020. Assessing the public interest in environmental assessment: lessons from cost-benefit analysis of an energy megaproject. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal. DOI: 10.1080/14615517.2020.1780371.
The potential contribution of cost-benefit analysis to environmental assessment is assessed through a case study of a proposed Canadian oil project and a comparison of results with those of the method of economic impact analysis. While the latter concludes that the project would generate substantial economic benefits, the cost-benefit analysis concludes that the project would be a net loss to society and that new oil mining is uneconomic. The case study demonstrates that economic impact analysis can help inform decision-makers of projects’ economic impacts, but the cost-benefit analysis should be used to help inform decision-makers with respect to the contribution of projects to the public interest. It is time to move beyond relying solely on economic impact analysis to measure project benefits in environmental assessment decision-making.
Chris Joseph, Thomas Gunton, Duncan Knowler, and Sean Broadbent. 2020. The Role of Cost-benefit Analysis and Economic Impact Analysis in Environmental Assessment: The Case for Reform. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal. 38 (6): 491-501. https://doi.org/10.1080/14615517.2020.1767954.
Cost-benefit analysis and economic impact analysis both provide the ability to assess projects’ economic impacts, but through different methodological approaches and perspectives. In Canada and elsewhere, cost-benefit analysis is often eschewed in favour of economic impact analysis in environmental assessment processes. This paper presents a criteria-based evaluation of the two methods and shows that cost-benefit analysis has numerous strengths relative to economic impact analysis but that both methods are useful. Consequently, we recommend that the environmental assessment process be reformed to include cost-benefit analysis complemented by economic impact analysis to provide decision-makers with more complete information.
Future Scenarios and Cumulative Effects Drivers for the BC North Coast (North Coast Skeena First Nations Stewardship Society, 2020)
North BC coast Indigenous groups and the BC provincial government have been developing a cumulative effects management program in the region for many years, and as part of this have wanted to understand how the things that drive cumulative effects in the region may evolve into the future. We were hired in late 2020 to research and write three 'narratives' (stories) describing alternative futures in the region. The three scenarios (called Global Stagnation, Business-as-usual, and Sustainability Push) examine how human population, transportation, development footprint, and climate change may evolve by 2030 and 2070 in the region. While largely in narrative form, the scenarios articulated various details on how people, the environment, technology, and the economy may unfold in the region. The scenarios are intended to be the basis for conversation on what and how cumulative effects management should be carried out in the region.
Chris Joseph, 2019. Problems and resolutions in GHG impact assessment. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal. 38 (1): 83-86. https://doi.org/10.1080/14615517.2019.1625253.
Projects’ carbon footprints are now an important impact for assessment. The common approach of comparing a project’s emissions with that of the host jurisdiction and interpreting the inevitably small emission volume of the project to be of no significance is faulty logic. This minimization argument approach would be unacceptable to proponents if it was applied to project benefits. The correct approach is to adopt internationally-recognized climate change significance thresholds which lead to a conclusion that most projects would cause significant impacts and thus the issue is one of justification.
Improving Integration of Project-level Environmental Assessment and Regional Cumulative Effects Management (Alberta Environment and Parks, 2017-2018)
Alberta's oil sands region has been subject to substantial levels of cumulative effects over the last several decades. In an effort to address this situation, the Alberta government has undertaken numerous initiatives and has emerged as a leader in this policy field. Over late 2017 and early 2018 Swift Creek Consulting conducted interviews with leading cumulative effects experts and reviewed literature, policy, and regulatory documentation to explore what has gone well and what still needs to be done. Swift Creek Consulting developed recommendations from this work for the Alberta government around the following three themes: (1) improving information; (2) improving the interpretation of effects; and (3) tightening the linkages between project-level environmental assessment and regional cumulative effects management. The findings of this study are expected to help direct Alberta's policy development with respect to cumulative effects management but are also no doubt relevant to other jurisdictions grappling with cumulative effects.
Chris Joseph, Thomas Gunton, and Murray Rutherford, 2017, A Method for Evaluating Environmental Assessment Systems. J. Env. Assmt. Pol. Mgmt. 19 (3) https://doi.org/10.1142/S1464333217500156 .
This paper outlines a method for evaluating environmental assessment (EA) systems called the environmental assessment system evaluation method. The method consists of five steps: (1) develop an initial list of good practices based on a literature review; (2) validate and adjust the practices by surveying experts and stakeholders; (3) describe the EA system; (4) use the good practices to evaluate the EA system through surveying EA participants and reviewing relevant documentation; and (5) identify changes to address deficiencies. The method provides a comprehensive and transparent evaluation that identifies strengths and weaknesses and means of improvement. The evaluation method is tested by applying it in a case study evaluation of the EA system for bitumen development in Canada.
Chris Joseph, Taylor Zeeg, David Angus, Anna Usborne, Erin Mutrie, 2017, Use of significance thresholds to integrate cumulative effects into project-level socio-economic impact assessment in Canada. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 67: 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2017.07.003
A longstanding critique of project-level environmental assessment is that it is weak at addressing cumulative effects, and because of this many argue that cumulative effects are best managed at a regional scale. However, in the absence of regional management it is important that project-level assessment supports cumulative effects management as best as possible. In this paper we present case study socio-economic impact assessments of liquefied natural gas development on Aboriginal groups on Canada's west coast. The case studies use an analytical structure modified from typical Canadian practice including unambiguous and non-arbitrary significance thresholds grounded in stakeholder values to focus baselines, impact assessment, and significance determination on cumulative effects. This approach is found to be more capable of informing decision-makers on cumulative effects as well as more rigorous and transparent than typical assessments. Much of this approach is not conceptually new, but at least in western Canada such an approach is not typically used or meaningfully implemented by practitioners. As such, the case studies serve to illustrate how practice can bolster project-level assessment.
Chris Joseph, Thomas Gunton, Murray Rutherford, 2015, Good practices for environmental assessment. Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal, 33 (4): 238-254. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14615517.2015.1063811
Environmental assessment (EA) has emerged in the last five decades as one of the primary management tools that governments use to protect the environment. However, despite substantial theoretical development and practical experience, there are concerns that EA is not meeting its objectives. This article develops a set of good practices to improve EA. An integrated list of proposed good practices is developed based on a literature review of impact assessment research and related fields of study. The practices are then evaluated by surveying experts and practitioners involved in EA of tar sands (also known as oil sands) development in Canada. In all, 74 practices grouped under 22 themes are recommended to improve EA. Key unresolved issues in EA requiring future research are identified.
Chris Joseph, 2013. Megaproject Review in the Megaprogram Context: Examining Alberta Bitumen Development. Doctoral dissertation, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada. 528 pp. http://summit.sfu.ca/item/12630
In recent decades northern Alberta has come to be one of the world's most important sources of new oil production. There are 175 billion barrels of bitumen under development, and government and developers are rapidly expanding their capacity to produce it, often through the construction of megaprojects. Both the federal and Alberta governments have review processes in place to scrutinize proposals for new projects. It is the aim of this thesis to examine how such processes should be conducted, to evaluate the federal and Alberta processes, and to identify means with which these processes might be improved. Megaprojects, and the 'megaprograms' that megaprojects may exist within as they do in the case of bitumen development, pose numerous challenges to project review. Therefore a robust project review process is necessary to ensure that only sound development proceeds and the public interest is protected. Twenty-two sets of 'good practices' are identified. The good practices are used as a measuring stick to evaluate the existing federal and Alberta review processes. The results of the evaluation are multi-facetted but can be summed up as concerning. Bitumen development is shaping Canadian society today, yet the federal and Alberta processes for reviewing proposals has serious shortcomings. To help inform the good practices, particularly with respect to sound methodology in impact assessment, a cost-benefit analysis of the Kearl bitumen mine is undertaken. The case study concludes that the project could be an overall net social cost to society, in large part because of the high costs of the project and its greenhouse gas damages. It is concluded that cost-benefit analysis is highly useful to project review and should be used in either its traditional form, or in a modified way, though always in respect of its limitations. Eighty three recommendations for the federal and Alberta governments are identified to help improve the process for the review of bitumen megaproject proposals. Many recommendations revolve around the need for the governments to fill in gaps with respect to cumulative effects management and planning of the bitumen megaprogram.
Chris Joseph, Ajit Krishnaswamy, 2010. Factors of resiliency for forest communities in transition in British Columbia. BC Journal of Ecosystems and Management, 10 (3): 127-144. http://www.jem-online.org/forrex/index.php/jem/article/view/39/11
Many forest-dependent communities in British Columbia continue to make the transition away from a heavy economic reliance on the forest sector to a more diversified economy. Although some communities are succeeding with this transition, many are not. To better understand why this is happening, we reviewed the literature on “community resiliency.” This concept has emerged as the focus of those concerned with the sustainability of communities dependent on natural resources. From the literature review, we identified 15 resiliency factors that contribute to successful transitions. Many of these are related to resources (e.g., financial and natural resources, human and social capital) and power (e.g., local control over enterprise and policy). Some factors may require development (e.g., attitude and high-quality planning), while others may require creative and innovative solutions (e.g., geography and availability of natural resources). For communities undergoing transition, we recommend that decision makers and community leaders assess their community’s resiliency by examining these 15 factors. We suggest that all resiliency factors contribute to successful transitions. Attention to some factors at the expense of others may be a poor strategy for successful transitions. We also present examples of indicators that could be used to assess community resiliency and provide guidance on selecting and constructing indicators. Most of the identified resiliency factors relate to adaptability. Sustaining forest-dependent communities is primarily about accepting change and addressing it through adaptation. We therefore suggest that rural communities in British Columbia focus more on enhancing their adaptive capacity.
Thomas Gunton, Chris Joseph, 2010. Economic and Environmental Values in Marine Planning: A Case Study of Canada’s West Coast. Environments, 37(3): 111-127. http://jps.library.utoronto.ca/index.php/ejis/article/viewFile/15062/12061
This paper discusses the concept of total economic value and demonstrates the importance of using such a framework in marine planning through a case study of the Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area, in British Columbia, Canada. After distinguishing between components of total economic value – including use values and non-use values – the paper reviews methods for estimating total economic value by estimating these components. Methods include marine dependency analysis, contingent valuation, discrete choice modeling, and benefit transfer. Their application to the case study provides monetary estimates of the total economic value for the case study region. The findings show that all three components of total economic value – market use value, non-market use value, and non-use value – are significant and should be taken into account in marine planning. The conculsions caution that failure to use a total economic value framework will bias decisions in favour of development over conservation and will lead to inefficient resource allocation. They also note the potential for designation of marine protected areas to enhance total economic value.
Chris Joseph, Thomas I. Gunton, J.C. Day, 2008. Implementation of resource management plans: Identifying keys to success. Journal of Environmental Management, 88(4): 594-606. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.03.028
One of the primary challenges in resource and environmental planning is successful implementation of plans. Plan implementation is a complex process influenced by many factors. This study identifies 19 criteria affecting implementation success and tests the impact of these criteria through a case study of collaborative plan implementation in British Columbia, Canada. The significance of criteria and degree to which they are met is assessed by a survey of senior officials responsible for plan implementation. An implementation evaluation index (IEI) is constructed to assess the quality of plan implementation systems and best practices for effective implementation are identified.
Chris Bataille, Nic Rivers, Paulus Mau, Chris Joseph, Jian-Jun Tu, 2007. How Malleable are the Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensities of the G7 Nations? The Energy Journal, 28 (1): 145-170. https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No1-7
Why do countries greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities differ? How much of a country's GHG intensity is set by inflexible national circumstances, and how much may be altered by policy? These questions are common in climate change policy discourse and may influence emission reduction allocations. Despite the policy relevance of the discussion, little quantitative analysis has been done. In this paper we address these questions in the context of the G7 by applying a pair of simple quantitative methodologies: decomposition analysis and allocation of fossil fuel production emissions to end-users instead of producers. According to our analysis and available data, climate and geographic size both inflexible national characteristics can have a significant effect on a country's GHG intensity. A country's methods for producing electricity and net trade in fossil fuels are also significant, while industrial structure has little effect at the available level of data disaggregation.