Analysing Performance

Introduction

This page shares links to some of the literature on the analysis of performance and uses the example of Association Football to explore issues in the analysis of performance.

Background

If you are interested in the origins of the analysis of performance in sport, you might like to read about Hugh Fullerton and Lloyd Messersmith.

Three textbooks that provide insights into the analysis of performance are:

Mike Hughes and Ian Franks (2004). Notational Analysis of Sport. London: E & F N Spon. Second edition.

Mike Hughes and Ian Franks (2007). The Essentials of Performance Analysis. London: Taylor & Francis.

Peter O'Donoghue (2010). Research Methods for Sports Performance Analysis. Abingdon: Routledge.

There is a Handbook that explores performance analysis techniques:

Tim McGarry, Peter O'Donoghue and Jaime Sampaio (Eds) (2013). Routledge Handbook of Sports Performance Analysis. Abingdon: Routledge.

Association Football

There has been a substantial growth in the analysis of performance in Association Football (soccer). Chris Anderson and David Sally's (2013) The Numbers Game has been a catalyst for this interest.

Here we look at three aspects of analysing performance in football: total shots ratio (and other metrics); goal impact; and luck.

Total Shots Ratio (and other metrics)

James Grayson has explored ways to predict performance in football. In a post in April, 2011, he looked at ratios for goals scored, shots on target and total shots. In a subsequent post, October 2011, James identifies total shots ratio as the best predictor of performance. James calculates a team's total shots ratio:

Total shots ratio (TSR) =

^{Total shots for}/_{(Total shots for + Total shots against)}

James suggests that "The higher a team's TSR the more they control the ball".

Subsequently, James developed a TSR2.4 metric to refine the predictions he made about performance.

Ted Knutson provides an excellent set of definitions for other metrics. These include:

Shot Dominance
Shots on Target Ratio
Expected Goals
Shooting Accuracy
Passing Accuracy
Save Percent
PDO

Richard Whittall discusses an additional metric ... Game State. (See also this post by Dan Altman and this by Ben Pugsley.)

Goal Impact

Jörg Seidel has developed a Goal Impact Measure for Association Football. He describes the Algorithm he uses to do this.

'The system uses an entirely different approach than most player rating systems, as it does not record single player actions and tries to value them. Instead, it just rates the player by the outcome and is agnostic to how the result was achieved. For the more mathematical oriented readers. Goalimpact is a kind of Shapley Value for team sports.'

Luck

Neil Charles has two posts about luck in Association Football.

Part 1: In my experience, there's no such thing as luck... Except in football. (4 September 2013)

Part 2: Luck in football part 2. Can you have a lucky season? (18 September 2013)

Analysing Performance

Introduction

Background

Association Football

Suggested Reading

Photo Credit