Outbreak! Modeling the Ebola Epidemic

In March 2014, parts of west Africa were struck by the Ebola virus. In under a year the virus had reached epidemic proportions, taking more than 8000 lives. Even though the severity the disease varies, the mortality rate is above 70% in many cases. The World Health Organization has declared an end to the epidemic, but there is still no licensed vaccine. Because of this, mathematical models are important in understanding the future behavior of the Ebola virus.

This project will begin with a survey of single and competing species models. Later, models for epidemic and endemic disease spread will be studied. Students will focus on understanding basic models and computational techniques. This knowledge will be used to model the spread of the Ebola virus in select districts of Sierra Leone. An epidemiological model will be created using a system of ordinary differential equations. Data from the Sierra Leone Ministry of Health and Sanitation will be used to calibrate the model and predict the number of future deaths and confirmed cases in a specified month.

For this project students should be familiar with mathematical concepts from Math 46, Math 31, and a programming language such as Matlab or C++.