MH370 1+1 = 2

New evidence based on a new method by Richard Godfrey

ATSB MH370 news search updates here.ATSB MH370 Bayesian search methods paper here.

ATSB MH370 factual information document here.

Edit 24 october 2016: The facts

- MH370 did crashed at sea, probably at the 7th arc or a little further, given beached confirmed debris

- MH370 flew until fuel depletion

- MH370 did make some controlled turns (combined prim. radar and Inmarsat calc.)

- MH370 did not attempt to land at any airport, or even approached one

Edit 25 july 2016: News reports that 6 recovered Microsoft FS-X files from captains home simulator did show similar routes as the last MH370 one. FBI found these files short after MH370 disappearance but were never confirmed by Malaysian authorities. Was Zahari practicing last flight on the home simulator? If true that would make pilot suicide and disappearance a criminal investigation? But what could have been the motive?

Edit 12 july 2016: MH370 story anonymous ATC - "There was another plane"

Edit 7 july 2016: Adrift duckies float map with start point 40s 88e (south of 7th arc) in March. See animation.

And backwards (from find location) from Reunion Island wreckage find is this animation.

And backwards from possible UNCONFIRMED Tanzania (jun 2016) find here. If you now go back to the first forward

animation you see to expect debris on Tanzania coast in 2-3 years (red)

Animation for Maldives start here. Debris will travel to west Indonesia. Still nothing found there!

(note that adrift is for educational purposes only)

Edit 2 july 2016: Back to the Maldives?

New drift analysis shows 7th arc is way off. But interestingly the Maldives is right in the middle of probable locations.

If you ask yourself "What if there was no INMARSAT calculation?" where would you look then? Complete document here.

Edit 21 jun 2016: What happens if 777 runs out of fuel with incapacitated crew simulation here.

It looses 8000 ft/min. With FL320 that leaves only about 5 minutes to impact. At the speed of 250 knts

gives you a range of 40 km! At 6000 ft/min the range will be about 50 km.

Given this experiment it is safe to say MH370 overshoots the 7th arc with 30 or 40 miles.

Edit 16 jun 2016: Animation Globe winds and currents 8 mar 2014 here.

Edit 11 jun 2016: Probable location MH370, 7th arc much wider, my prediction based on satellite debris photo's.

Realtime ship postitions and historical ship movement 2014

Edit 4 apr 2015: Australian Newspaper revives Maldives as possible crash location.

Fire extinguisher bottle that washes ashore in Maldives one year ago. What does that belong to? No official explanation.

If not MH370 they saw why don't we official here what plane they did see? Big planes don't fly low over the Maldives.

Edit 13 mrt 2015: Another theory for the Maldives. This is

from Stuart S Yeh. See his hypothesis here.

Edit 24 apr 2015: although the Boeing MSN numbers of Egypt Air and MH370 were close, their actual build dates are 5 years apart.

Edit 23 dec 2014: Rough fuel left calculation for MH370.

The last received ACARS message from MH370 was at

01:07 MYT. It reported 43.800 kg of fuel remaining.

A Boeing 777 200er consumes at average 6900 kg/hr so

that leaves 06:20 hours of fly time. At 07:27 MYT it would

have run out of fuel. Inmarsat had a last handshake at 08:19 MYT.

What did the plane do in 52 minutes without fuel? Glide?

At what speed? Did Inmarsat include that into their calculations?

Edit 24 apr 2015: average fuel burn rate for 7:12 hours would be 6080 kg/hr. Which is low for a heavy 777.

Edit 22 dec 2014: Good old detective work beats number crunching? John Holloway investigates and interviews eyewitness at the Maldives Islands. Are they searching in the wrong spot? Did MH370 fly over the Maldives? What if Inmarsat is wrong with their analysis?

Edit 17 dec 2014: 5000 Li-Ion batteries test FAA video

Advice from FAA: Store Li-Ion battery cargo in Class-C cargo compartments pdf

Edit 04 dec 2014:

SDU was switched on again. Who or what caused that remain to be seen. Since the only place to do that is at the SDU itself in the equipment bay, below decks just after the cockpit. This is strange for someone who wants to disappear completely. More likely caused by the short and intensive fire in the adjacent cargo bay. Where the Li-Ion battery cargo was loaded.

Over the span of several minutes, between 18.25 and 18.28, the Satellite Data Unit (SDU) transmitted a flurry of brief electronic messages with Inmarsat satellite 3F-1, which occupies a geosynchronous orbit above the Indian Ocean. In a report issued this June, the Australian Transport Safety Board stated that the signals were “generated as part of a Log-on sequence after the terminal has likely been power cycled.”

Until now, it has not been publicly known how such a power-cycling could have taken place.

At the simulator facility, Exner reports, he was able to confirm “that there is no way to turn off the primary power to the satcom from the cockpit. It is not even described in the flight manuals. The only way to do is to find an obscure circuit breaker in the equipment bay [i.e. the Electronic and Equipment bay, or E/E bay, is the airplane’s main electronic nerve center].” Both of the pilots accompanying him told Exner that “pilots are not trained to know that detail.”

Edit 27jun2014:

New eyewitness account. Sailor sees burning plane at 02:50 local time that night. Source

Together with the oil rig worker both saw a plane on fire!

Quote:

I saw something that looked like a plane on fire. That’s what I thought it was. Then, I thought I must be mad… It caught my attention because I had never seen a plane with orange lights before, so I wondered what they were.

“I could see the outline of the plane, it looked longer than planes usually do. There was what appeared to be black smoke streaming from behind it.”

At least two other aircraft were visible in the night sky.

“There were two other planes passing well above it – moving the other way – at that time. They had normal navigation lights. I remember thinking that if it was a plane on fire that I was seeing, the other aircraft would report it,” Katherine said.

“And then, I wondered again why it had such bright orange lights. They reminded me of sodium lights. I thought it could be some anomaly or just a meteor.”

Katherine noted that when she first saw the object, “It was approaching to cross behind our stern from the north. When I checked again later, it had moved across the stern and was moving away to the south.”

How hard is it to simulate a Li-ion battery fire in the cargo bay of a 777-200 to find which electronics fail?

Edit 10apr2014:

We almost know for sure that MH370 ended in the Indian Ocean. It is only a matter of time that it will be found.

I have still one big question:

Is waypoint IGREX next after IGARI in the waypointlist on the FMS of a 777?

The whole world is looking for flight MH370 that went missing on march 8 2014, 1:21 local time. The fact that the plane is not found after a week is due to the fact that the Malaysian SAR team is not capable. I think the plane is right under their noses, they even may have flown over it a few times already. Now I get angry with them. Not for myself but for the families that have lost their beloved ones.

I build my case with pictures from different sources. MH370 did NOT fly west over Thailand. Impossible. It would have been escorted within 10 minutes.

Cause

Remember ValuJet Flight 592? A line from the wiki: "First Officer Richard Hazen heard a loud bang in their headphones and noticed the plane was losing electrical power" That sounds familiar. MH370 also lost electrics at the last know position. Coincidence?

So with flight 592 it was oxygen generators that caused the fire in the loading bay, burning through all the electric wiring.

With MH370 we know there were 13 engineers on board from the FreeScale company. The electric automotion department from Malaysia.

Did anybody check what they were transporting in the cargo bay? Batteries? Electric power plants? Cargo manifest, please check.

Last known position

Flightradar24, tracking aircraft transponders via radio, has the last know position of MH370. You can see in the replay that the plane was just turning east. The last reading was altitude 0, heading 40.

One transponer packet earlier it was altitude FL350 and heading 25. Mh370 had to make that turn. But why altidude 0 while the heading was as expected. Because the device that provided the transponder with the correct altitude just lost electricity.

So NOBODY switched off anything. The fire in the cargo bay burned through the electric wiring one by one.

Visual report of oil rig worker

An oilrig worker have reported via e-mail that he has seen a plane gone down that was also burning for a while. Remember the cargo bay fire I mentioned earlier. (no time given in e-mail?)

The oilrig worker must have seen something else at 50-70km at 260 degrees. Distance to MH370 was way to far, more like 500 miles.

The floating door

On one of the first days of the search a door-like (or lining) float was spotted. It could not be found when vessels were dispatched to the location.

SatCom bleeps

There is this fact of FAINT satcom pings containing the ID of plane 9M-MRO. They have been received up to 4 hours after the last contact. A single satellite have received them. Not more, else it would have been possible to locate the position with triangulation. Mark the word FAINT. Is this like a signal from under water? The sea there is like 50 mtrs deep.

Seismic activity measured that night

In the history of airplane crash investigation there was a case of Swissair flight 111. The location was also found with the help of seismic detection of the impact. Now it seems that seismic activity has been measured on the night of the flight of MH370.

Tomnod suspect images from that area. Taken on different days. But could be moored boats.

History of missing planes above sea, the 20 mile rule

I have found a nice image of previous airplane crashes at sea. The wreckage was always found within 20 miles of their last known position!

So if you can add 1 + 1 you know where to look. Since I am still angry with the Malaysian SAR team and I urge them to look better on the most logical spot.

I will keep this page up until proven otherwise. Thank you for your time.

EDIT 15-03-2014:

  • Please SAR Team, put the microphone in the waters in the 20 mile radius area in front of the last know position. Forget Debris.

  • Reported MH370 radar flightpath debunked. Just impossible for 777. Cnn video

EDIT 16-03-2014:

  • Cargo manifest just as important as passenger list. Read more

  • Added Inmar Ping arc. Note the path in purple. It is right where the plane should be.

EDIT 21-03-2014:

"Government officials now believe the plane continued flying until at least 8:11 a.m. -- almost seven hours after disappearing from radar at 1:21 a.m."

"...receiving and responding to hourly checks from a ground station, via the satellite."

Could this be as simple as 7 hour time difference between Malaysia and the UK? Where are the other 7 "ping" arcs? Anyone?

@boeing, airbus and other airplane manufacturers for airlines: please rethink the Black Box concept. Make at least GPS position live data link possible with autonomous power source.