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Post date: Jul 31, 2020 1:30:21 AM
Thinkover at the University of Liverpool Institute for Risk and Uncertainty
Precise versus Bounded Probability
19 August 2020, Wednesday
2 pm BST, 3 pm CEST
Please request the Zoom link from A.M.Jones@liverpool.ac.uk
What does it mean to quantify epistemic uncertainty by probability? Can there be more than one way to do it? In this discussion seminar I will compare precise and bounded probability as measures for epistemic uncertainty. I look for criteria for suitable quantitative measures of epistemic uncertainty such as a coherent theory, interpretation, the ability to learn from data in different types of situations, the ability to integrate expert knowledge in a transparent way and the ability to propagate epistemic uncertainty in a model. We focus the discussion to Bayesian inference using precise subjective probability, robust Bayes inference using bounded probability, and confidence boxes using the theory of confidence structures. A set of challenge problems have been specified to aid the discussion. You are welcome to try them out.
See https://sites.google.com/site/epistemicunc/thinkover for further links and discussion.
Organiser Ullrika Sahlin is an associate professor in Environmental Science at Lund University, Sweden. She is doing research on the use of methods to treat uncertainty in scientific assessments with applications on environmental assessments and evidence-based decision making. Ullrika is leading the research group Uncertainty and Evidence Lab at Lund University.
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