Expert Elicitation

Post date: May 09, 2019 7:2:12 PM

Expert Elicitation

Caroline Morais and Pedro Silva

2:00 pm, 14 May 2019

Risk Institute Seminar Room

Institute for Risk and Uncertainty

Chadwick Building, University of Liverpool

Lunch will be provided. For catering purposes, please register at https://forms.gle/eReiqHaiUBtj75pV8.

Abstract: Expert elicitation is the synthesis of authoritative opinions on a subject where data are lacking. Expert elicitation is widely considered as an alternative to gathering relevant data, and often the only available way to estimate many needed model inputs. However, opinions vary widely about how to properly use expert elicitation in practice.

This thinkover will focus on developing synoptic guidance on how to responsibly use expert elicitation in quantitative models, building on the two-day symposium (https://sites.google.com/site/liverpoolexpertelicitation/) recently hosted by the Risk Institute on this subject. What are the best practices to get estimates from informants, how we can evaluate their estimates, and how we can combine them and process their estimates in calculations?

The thinkover will initiate a collaboration for a possible paper and a revision of the Wikipedia article on expert elicitation. This web site (https://sites.google.com/site/riskthinkover/home/moraissilvaexpertelicitation) will host the on-going collaboration.

All interested students and faculty members from all institutions, business people and industrialists are welcome to attend.