Tenzer Strategics
You will find in this page the full list of my long papers published on my strategy blog with their date and appropriate link.
If you are interested in reading these essays, your subscription for one year or as founding member would be greatly appreciated. The link is here
2021
1 “Why is Political Risk Analysis So Often Blind?”, June 13, 2021.
2 “How Realistic is Realpolitik?”, June 15, 2021.
3 “Is the U.S. Truly Back?”, June 19, 2021.
4 “Can the EU Achieve Strategic Autonomy? On the Maturity of EU’s Foreign Policy”, June 24, 2021.
5 “How Can Ministries of Foreign Affairs Frame a Strategy of Influence?”, June 25, 2021.
6 “Is EU Enlargement Policy Brain Dead?”, June 27, 2021.
7 “What’s at Stake With Belarus. Saving Belarus from the Grip of the Russian Regime”, June 29, 2021.
8 “Democracy in the Middle East. Why it’s not a Western Whim”, July 2, 2021.
9 “Why the Recognition of Crimes for Which There is No Statute of Limitations Is Crucial for the Security of Democracies”, July 4, 2021.
10 “How Well Can (Democratic) Governments and International Organizations Communicate About Foreign Policy?”, July 6, 2021.
11 “Lawfare: Weapon of the Future or Sting of the Fly?”, July 9, 2021.
12 “Do 20-Year Forecasts in the Field of International and Security Policy Tell Us Anything Interesting? Method and Decision”, July 11, 2021.
13 “How Can France Design Its Foreign Policy? Principles, Constraints, Objectives, Achievements”, July 14, 2021.
14 “Is Germany in Danger of Becoming Europe’s Weak Link? Power of Action or of Blocking?”, July 17, 2021.
15 “Why the Prospect for Ukraine to Join the European Union and NATO Must Be Seriously Considered. But the European Destiny Comes First”, July 19, 2021.
16 “Syria: Will the West Ever Take Its Strategic Defeat Seriously? Fiteen Theses for Action”, July 22, 2021.
17 “Corruption and Foreign Influence: Time To Be Consistent. Europe Must Strengthen Its Legislation”, July 24, 2021.
18 “Will the West Be Able to Win the War of Narratives Against Dictatorships? Intellectual Indigence and Strategic Disaster”, July 26, 2021.
19 “Make Biden European Again. What European Policy For the United States?”, July 29, 2021.
20 “A World Without a Present. When History Creates Its Own Demise and Oblivion”, July 31, 2021.
21 “Does It Still Make Sense to Talk About the World Order? Vain Lamentation or Concrete Agenda?”, August 5, 2021.
22 “Do Western Societies Have the Capacity to Resist Foreign Threats? The Missing Link in the Fight Against the Manipulation of Information”, August 13, 2021.
23 “Why Afghanistan’s Fate Is Not Primarily a “Regional” Issue. Systemic Risks and Unlikely Normalization”, August 19, 2021.
24 “The Misadventures of a Restrictive Notion: The National Interest. Foreign Policy Debate and National Interest”, July 26, 2021.
25 “Does the American Withdrawal From Afghanistan Signal the Time for A Geostrategic Europe? What Are the Conditions For a Credible Breakthrough?”, September 1, 2021.
26“War Lands vs. Peace Zones: A New Division of the World? Does It Matter Strategically?”, September 2, 2021.
27 “Are There Good Practices in Strategic Planning in Foreign Policy? How Mistakes in the Decision-Making Process Influence the Strength of Foreign Policy in Democratic States”, September 9, 2021.
28 “Are There Years Zero in History? Can Thinking About Tipping Points Inform Foreign Policy Decision?”, September 13, 2021.
29 “Russian State vs. France: Let’s not Let the Foreign Power Interfere in the Justice of Free Countries. An Affaire d’Etat”, September 18, 2021.
30 “Can the Fight Against Terrorism Contribute to Building New Alliances? Why Counter-Terrorism Cooperation Is Mostly Useful, But Politically Insignificant”, September 24, 2021.
31 “Will Turkey Ever Become Our Ally Again? An Erratic Policy With No Future That Must Be Changed”, October 8, 2021.
32 “What the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe Must Teach Us. The Future of a History Between Hypermnesia and Betrayal”, October 15, 2021.
33 “How Can Each Singular Person Shape Foreign Policy and Its Understanding. Resistance, Retrenchment and Ignorance”, October 24, 2021.
34 “Who is the Real Winner in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict? Diplomatic Lessons from a Western Failure”, October 29, 2021.
35 “Does NATO have a Future without a Reaffirmed Alliance? Evidence of Objectives, Uncertainties of Strategies”, November 1 2021.
36 “Covid-19 and the Tension of the World. Has the Danger of the International Scene Increased With the Epidemic?”, November 8, 2021.
37 “Welcome to the Refugees! Let’s Be Consistent in our Fight Against the Causes of Political Migration”, November 13, 2021.
38 “The Alliance of Dictatorships Against Liberal Democracies: a Reality? How Can We Act to Prevent if from Solidifying?”, November 28, 2021.
39 “Historical Comparisons Could Lead to Strategic Errors. There is no New Cold War—but That Should Not Reassure Us”, December 7, 2021.
40 “Fog of Wars or Smoke and Mirrors Tactics? Western Leaders Must not Give In to Putin’s Tricks?”, December 11, 2021.
41 “What Does Vladimir Putin Want? Ideology, Movement and Destruction”, December 23, 2021.
42 “Memorial, Universality, Freedom, and Our Sin. This is not an Internal Affair of the Russian Regime, but a Universal Case”, December 29, 2021.
2022
43 “Taiwan is the Only Democratic China. Why this is not Trivial in Terms of Security”, January 8, 2022.
44 “Why the West Failed on Ukraine. How Can We Learn from Our Past Mistakes?”, January 16, 2022.
45 “Does the Notion of Populism Have Any Bearing on Foreign Policy? Cult of the People and Decline of Democratic Leadership”, January 29, 2022.
46 “Discussions, Dialogue or Negotiation? Is it Possible to Deal With the Russian Regime?”, February 4, 2022.
47 “The Dilemma of Rationality in Foreign Policy. The Case of Putin's Russia”, February 16, 2022.
48 “This Is Our War. If We Don't Fight it Now, We Will Lose it—Like All the Previous Ones”, March 5, 2022.
49 "Evil and Foreign Policy. Aporias, Aphasia and Reality", March 16, 2022.
50 "'Don't Be Emotional!' (About Putin's War Crimes). Why This Phrase is Actually the Zero Degree of Strategic Thinking", March 20, 2022.
51 "How the Kremlin's Narratives Are Still Influencing Some Western Leaders. Don't Think that Russia Influence Has Disappeared", April 6, 2022.
52 "Why We Must Design the Future of Ukraine Now. The Future Dictates Our Present", May 8, 2022.
53 "WhWhatat the War in Ukraine Tells Us About Leadership—And the Lack Thereof. Will Western Political Leaders Ever Learn?", May 29, 2022.
54 "Russian Mass Crimes in Ukraine. A Deliberate Political Will. Genealogy of State Terror", June 1, 2022.
55 "We Must Save the Ukrainians at All Costs. An Immediate Strategic Imperative", June 14, 2022.
56 “Is Putin Hitler? Is the Analogy Relevant and Useful? A Discussion”, July 2, 2022.
57 "Will There be a New Strategic Reality After the Russian War on Ukraine? Is the West Ready for a Breakthrough", July 11, 2022.
58 “Putin's Russia is a Terrorist State: Should it be Written into Law? A Conceptual, Legal and Above All Practical Debate", July 29, 2022.
59 “Sanctions and the Coherence of European Policy. Toward a New Foreign Policy Conditionality", July 31, 2022.
60 “Six Months, Eight Years... Reversing Twenty-Three Years of History. Our Duty Is to Give Ukraine a Total Victory", August 26, 2022.
61 “An Inconvenient Truth: We Are Still Not Helping Ukraine Seriously. Western Misconception and Strategic Irresponsability", September 10, 2022.
62 “Post-Putin: Between Collapse and Liberation. Part 1: Structural Facts and the Advent of the New", September 23, 2022.
63 “Post-Putin: Between Collapse and Liberation. Part Two: How the West Will Have to Deal With the Russian Question After the War Against Ukraine", Septembre 29, 2022.
64 “Ukraine: The Real Lesson of Realism. The Long Agony of Classical Diplomacy", October 9, 2022.
65 “What Would the (Necessary) Total Strategic Defeat Mean For Russia? Why the West Must Define Its War Aim", October 15, 2022.
66 "Intermezzo Doloroso: On the Art of Resistance, and the Meaning of Music... and Death. A Tribute to Yuriy Kerpatenko: A Ukrainian Hero", October 18, 2022
67 “The Heavy Clouds of Peace. Why a Precipitous Peace in Ukraine Would Be a Major Threat to Our Security", October 31, 2022.
68 “How Russia Hinders the Balanced Development of the World. The Ukrainian Victory Is Indispensable for a New, Just Economic and Social Order", November 21, 2022.
69 “The 'Peace' Camp Versus the Victory Camp. The Intellectual and Strategic Origins of a Division", November 29, 2022.
70 “At the Root of the Russian Regime's Misunderstanding: The Ignorance of Mass Crimes. Have the Democracies Truly Overcome Their Past Blindness?", December 14, 2022.
71 “We Must Win Our War Against Putin's Russia Now. Any Delay Would Prepare Our Own Defeat", December 22, 2022.
72 “Security in Europe After Ukraine's Victory. How To Reconsider Our Strategy of Deterrence?", December 24, 2022.
73 “The Year 2022: Crime in Majesty and Hope in Deception. Will the Mass Graves of Mariupol Be a Vain Memory?", December 30, 2022.
2023
74 "Understanding the War. On the Exceptionality of Russia's All-Out War Against Ukraine", January 21, 2023.
75 "Abrams and Leopards Are Welcome, But Do Not Make the Strategy. Does the West Have Long-Term Russian Objectives and Policy, Especially in the 'Global South'", February 2, 2023.
76 "Morality and Foreign Policy: the Strategy of Confusion. Syria and Ukraine Versus Iraq and Israel: Responding to Whataboutism", February 19, 2023.
77 "One Year, Nine Years: Ending a War Without End? In Front of the Abyss and Destruction: the Void and our Record", February 24, 2023.
78 "On War Diplomacy. Old Principles and New Rules: What Is a Foreign Policy?'", March 13, 2023.
79 "The UN, the Criminal and International Law. What Russia's Upcoming Presidency of the Security Council Says About Us", March 20, 2023.
80 "Combating Sanctions Circumvention. Immediate Measures and Long-Term Perspectives", April 6, 2023.
81 "Vladimir Kara-Murza: Our Conscience and the Living With Freedom. Only the Radical Defeat of Russia Will Open Its Future Again", April 19, 2023.
82 "On Ukraine and Russia: Let's Dare to Take a Long-Term View - and a Strategy. How a Short Sighted View Would Herald a Repeat of the Disaster", April 23, 2023.
84 "Twenty Theses On Democracies' Post-Russian Defeat Strategy - Part One. The Long-Term Conditions of Our Security: I. the Democratic Strategy", May 13, 2023.
85 "Twenty Theses On Democracies' Post-Russian Defeat Strategy - Part Two. The Long-Term Conditions of Our Security: II. the Deterrence Strategy", May 19, 2023.
86 "Twenty Theses On Democracies' Post-Russian Defeat Strategy - Part Three. The Long-Term Conditions of Our Security: III. The Strategy of Re-Balancing the World", June 2, 2023.
87 "From Ukraine With Love. Back From Kyiv—How to Avoid the Eternal Return of The Same?", June 5, 2023.
88 "Let's Stop Rehashing the Narrative of the Third World War. The Control and the Power of Deterrence", June 12, 2023.
89 "Strategic Amnesia. Time, Delay and Forgetting", June 22, 2023.
90 "Russia: the Cupola Versus the State? From One Mafia to Another: The Future of Russia and the Strategy of Democracies", July 1, 2023.
91 "The Murdered Writer and the Stain of Our Unconsciousness. Reflections on Our Strategic Childishness", July 4, 2023.
92 "From Kyiv to Vilnius: Those Five Hundreds Days That Should Never Have Been. Back From Kyiv 3: The Building of a Nation", July 11, 2023.
93 "Glitter, Smokes and Mirrors, and Death: The NATO Summit and the Failure To Correct Course That Followed. Foreign Policy and Spin Strategy", July 19, 2023.
94 "Breaking the Russian Embargo on Ukrainian Grain. Why This Would Be a Decisive Strategic Step Forward", July 21, 2023.
95 "International Expertise: Scientific Truth and Strategic Non-Neutrality. Lessons From Russia's War Against Ukraine and for Its Reconstruction, and The World's", July 30, 2023.
96 "Is The United States An (Ir)Responsible Power? Does Washington DC Have A Foreign Policy?", September 8, 2023.
97 "How To Recognize A (Sometimes Unwitting) Kremlin Enabler ? Democracies Don’t Counter Russian Narratives Enough", September 16, 2023.
98 "If The United States Disappears... Could Europe Survive? ", September 26, 2023.
99 "Regaining Georgia After Victory in Ukraine. Don't Let Tbilisi Remain a Captured State", October 1, 2023.
100 "Countering Russia's Horizontal War. Towards A Leaderless World?", October 18, 2023.
101 "How Democracies Let the World Become a Lawless Order. People and Our Security Are Paying a Hard Price", October 31, 2023.
102 "The Trouble, the Noise and the Message: Do the Allies Want To Win the War? Darkness and Perjury", November 6, 2023.
103 "Confusion and Polarization At Home and Abroad. How Can We Try to Regain a Common Understanding?", November 30, 2023.
104 "Foreign Policy, Cretinism and Decadence. Do We Want to Disprove Putin's Prophecy of the Collapse of Democracies?", December 13, 2023.
105 "Kairos and Decision. Why Has Russia’s War Against Ukraine Had Little Structural Effect on the Foreign Policy of Alliance Countries?", December 23, 2023.
2024
106 "Before the Abyss. 2024: The Year the World May Break Up", January 17, 2024.
107 "Sending Troops From Certain Alliance Countries to Ukraine Could Be a Decisive Step. Why We Must Go All the Way", March 25, 2024.
108 "The War That's Here and the War That's Coming. - Back From Ukraine 4. Have We Really Understood What's Coming?", April 11, 2024.
109 "American Aid, Constancy of Unconsciousness and Blindness to the Future. Why There Can Be No Full Relief", April 20, 2024.