MEDLUCC model

This section presents the MEDLUCC model following the ODD model description protocol.

The MEDLUCC model is a spatial explicit dynamic land-use/-cover change (LUCC) model implemented in SELES language designed to spatially mimic any LUCC process. The model is based on a demand-allocation approach: it allocates the time-step demand of each target land-cover type according to the spatial suitability to change to it in concordance with an alternative set of restriction rules.

The model algorithm can be broadly described as follows: The model first spatially allocates as many potential actions of a LCT target change as the tax demand (set each time step). Selected cells are chosen following a probability surface accounting for the main LUCC drivers of the system under study. For each potential spatial change, a "waiting time" value is computed based on the probability of change. Cells with lower “waiting time” values will undergo LUCC before the others. A change process affects neighbouring cells whether the spread speed induce neighbour waiting times lower than those of any potential-change cell. The number of LUCC patches, distribution of patch size, and the spatial patterns of change are emergent properties of the model.