Fifty years ago we could not foresee that in 2020 we would be carrying in our pocket a device that contains all our photo’s, music, maps and documents while combining the functions of a telephone, a watch, a radio, a TV, a record player, a video camera, a dictation machine and a calculator; all the time, everywhere. Inventions cannot be predicted. Global warming however can be predicted, it is unavoidable. We feel and see it right now. Worst-case scenarios published in 2007 have already been overtaken by unforeseen acceleration of events. When my grandchildren ask: “Opa, what did you do?” I cannot say, “I did not know”. Let's agree on the facts. When we do not share facts, we cannot share decisions.
We are running into the limitations of planet earth. There are too many people on too warm a planet. When animals have satisfied their basic instincts (food, safety, sex), they play and rest. Humans also want power, prestige, possessions. We want more of everything. If we do not stop population growth and affluence, famine, disasters and wars will enforce the limits. The sooner we stop growing, the fewer people will have to die in misery
Temperatures and CO2 content in the atmosphere will rise further because:areas previously covered by snow and ice absorb heat instead of reflecting it.
Melting tundra’s emit more carbon than all human activity combined.
The world population will increase by another 30% (3 billion ) by 2050
People in poor counties also want a car, a house, all the stuff we have already..
Previous doomsday predictions were religion based; “We are all sinners and soon we all will be punished”. This prediction is different. Global warming is a fact. Climate deniers point out that the world has been much warmer. True. 250 million years ago sea levels were much higher but there were not billions of humans needing space and food. So far the effects on society have been limited and manageable. Cities flooded, harvests failed, forests burned, but that has happened before. Do worry, the effects will get worse. We are already past the point of no return. Global warming will accelerate, whatever we do. Floods, droughts, hurricanes will kill people and animals and obstruct food supply. Competition for scarce resources (land, food) will lead to conflicts within and between countries. As the sea level rises and world population grows, habitable space and arable land per person declines. Hundreds of millions will have to relocate to higher elevations. Plummeting value of real estate in low areas will lead to loss of income for retirees whose income is based on capital. As capital evaporates, the financial system might collapse.
“This can’t be true. If true, everyone would be in panic.” That’s the problem. The problem is so overwhelming that we rather deny it. Global warming should be the main issue in every election, in every country. However, imposing limitations now for future benefits is political suicide. When will global warming become truly catastrophic? My best guess is 2100. By then famine, thirst, heat, drowning and war will have killed 70% of the world population.
Private initiatives cannot solve worldwide problems. Bill Gates‘ foundation, Greta Thunberg’s advocacy and not eating meat is not enough. Collective problems have to be addressed by collective measures. Most people are willing to do something to limit global warming. install solar panels, turn off lights, put on a sweater, turn down the thermostat. Few are inclined to take the drastic actions that are needed: travel less, forego vacations, buy a Prius, heat only one room, move to a smaller house, remain childless. Implementing these changes in a rational, timely and equitable way is not in human nature. We feel the inconvenience of a cutback now but we do not feel the benefits that accrue in the future. Most people do too little, too late. I am no different; I do nothing to slow global warming because nobody does. No one can tell specifically what will happen when and where, so we feel excused and postpone actions. We do not need specific predictions. We are running into a wall sooner or later. Things are getting worse faster than predicted even two years ago. Drastic actions are required right now. Laws can nudge people to strive for the common good. The sooner we act, the better.
Collect the energy the sun provides abundantly everyday (solar panels, wind mills, water falls, tidal movements )
Decrease the use of fossil energy (coal, oil, gas) by charging $10/gallon, as is the case in Europe
Decrease consumption. Levy a 20 % sales tax. Restore and reuse.
Decrease population. People pollute. More people pollute more
Decrease non-essential activities. No tourism. No spectator sports. No mowing the lawn, no skiing, no motor-boating, no expensive films, no car racing, ....
Facilitate euthanasia. The more people die now, the less will die later.
Capitalism gets in the way
Organisms, animals, humans, businesses, nations, all strive to prevail. Competition is the driving force of progress But competition has its limits. What is good for the individual is not always good for society. Capitalism is not good at managing limited common resources. Survival requires cooperation. Everyone can contribute to survival of the species by using less energy and less resources. Those who use the most, can contribute the most..
National autonomy gets in the way
National autonomy is an anachronism. The time has come to acknowledge that all men are created equal; not just our countrymen. Worldwide problems require worldwide measures imposed by a worldwide government. The opposite is happening. Nationalism is en vogue everywhere. 200 years ago the world was a hodgepodge of overlapping entities (empires, countries, provinces, cities). Now, nations are the pillars of world order and a source of personal identity. But nations are an obstacle to solving worldwide problems. Our instincts prevent us to see our species as the tribe to be defended. We rather drown, burn and starve than go beyond tribal loyalty.
Fake news gets in the way
Faced with fake news and caught in a gridlock of opinions most people do little to prevent further global warming. Politicians only tell what people like to hear. If they don't, they won't be elected. Likewise, newspapers publish what people like to read. If they don't, they lose subscriptions .Trump demonstrates that facts don't matter. Denial is preferable to taking unpleasant actions
Military budgets get in the way
50 % of the US federal discretionary budget (excluding Medicare and Social Services) goes to the military. It makes no sense to defend one's country when we are drowning, choking and starving together. The enemy is us.
Individual freedom gets in the way.
Refusal of vaccination shows that many people refuse to respond to a shared threat. New Hampshire's motto is “Live free or die“."Live free and die” is reality.
Population reduction is the most effective measure to reduce global warming. In that perspective, the COVID pandemic is a welcome disaster. Big calamities are unavoidable anyway. Why should young people protect the old people who caused global warming? Old people will die a bit earlier than usual. Good! That is a small price for saving many lives in the future. The more people die now, the less will die later. Most old people will not mind to die a bit sooner. Make euthanasia a celebratory family event.
As more people realize that the future is bleak, birth rates will plummet. Non-essential activities such as tourism and entertainment will diminish. Confronted with big societal changes people will tend to retreat to nature. Universal free income will allow more people to move from urban to rural. Once we all do more with less and economic growth is a taboo, some optimism might emerge.
Equanimity
Whatever we do, collectively and individually, it will be too late and too limited to avoid disasters. What to do? Acknowledge our collective predicament and keep going as if the world will be forever. When the sun burns out in a billion years, all life will die anyway. I accept my own death. Likewise, I can accept our species death with equanimity. People die, species go extinct, all life comes to an end. So it goes. Being at peace with oneself is simple and effective. Everyone can do it. An uncluttered life might even become fashionable. Plant a tree even when you will die tomorrow. Be kind and caring and enjoy what is enjoyable. December 2021