Heiser Christmas Letter 2022

Complacent about nuclear weapons?

DALL·E

The artificial intelligence research group OpenAI built a program called DALL·E, a 12-billion parameter version of GPT–3 trained to generate images from text descriptions, using a dataset of text–image pairs. Give it a text prompt, like, "a Teletubby in a spacesuit riding a dolphin," and it produces a set of high–resolution illustrations. Take a look! The program has a remarkable ability to combine visual materials from the Internet. Even the lighting and perspective have been adjusted correctly.

Here’s Théatre D'opera Spatial, which won the Fine Arts Competition at the Colorado State Fair. Jason Allen told a similar program called Midjourney to create it:

There’s a controversy about whether it can even be copyrighted, depending on whether it was created by the human being who “told” the program what to do. Now, “AI whisperers” are selling highly engineered DALL·E prompts, so we can all become accomplished illustrators. AI makes it easy to experiment broadly and to explore early in the creative process, potentially leading to better results. DALL·E will soon be available in Microsoft 365.

By Name

The Los Angeles Homeless Services Agency blew its annual homeless count in Los Angeles. One district in Venice went from hundreds to zero, but just on paper. The error has been pointed out, but the Homeless Services Agency stands by the zero figure. The RAND Corporation hired a team to collect better data.

A better way to address the poor quality of the data would be to rethink it from the ground up. Tallies and geography are relevant for allocating budgets, but not for actually helping people.

Built for Zero is organizing its census by name, tracking individuals. Similarly, Los Angeles County has a regional Coordinated Entry System, designating Union Station Homeless Services, The People Concern, PATH and St. Joseph’s Center, etc., to keep a database of clients of all agencies in their regions. It must be a difficult chore to collect input from different agencies and then decide when a client record is ready to be deleted or marked “completed.”

There is still child tax credit! To replace the federal program, California and 15 other states plan to dispense payments by the end of the year. Families with very low incomes will automatically be eligible. We heard that the child tax credit cut child poverty in half. There’ll also be a gas tax rebate, and maybe another stimulus payment.

Renter Relief

Nationwide, rents are up 20% since 2020, according to Conor Dougherty of the New York Times.

Cost of shelter will continue to be a huge financial problem, particularly for renters. During the pandemic, an eviction moratorium reduced evictions by two–thirds. Now, the problem is how to end the moratorium. Our councilmember Mike Bonin has proposed eight practical steps to prevent a surge of evictions:

• Expand just–cause evictions to all renters: One third of renters live in post–1974 buildings not presently covered. Eviction only for cause gives renters stability.

• Prohibit family separations: During the pandemic, roommates, including additional family members and pets were tolerated off–lease due to the emergency. LA County has already extended this policy in unincorporated areas.

• Disallow eviction for late payment of rent; currently, even paying late once exposes some renters to later eviction. The bank doesn’t foreclose on mortgages after only one month.

• Limit rent increases. The rent freeze ends soon, and a huge rent increase is another kind of eviction.

• Assist renters relocating due to rent increases. Even a relocation allowance won’t cover all the extra costs.

• Provide counsel for renters facing eviction. The public does not understand how to assert protections during the fast–moving and complex eviction process.

• Protect renters during the application process: renters who are evicted face discrimination from landlords, and people face credit checks, and non–refundable application and screening fees, even if they have been paying their rent every month.

• Enforce tenant anti–harassment regulations: Corporate landlords (who have been on a buying spree) have a bad reputation for pushing tenants out when they take over a house or apartment.

Student Debt Forgiveness

Biden’s executive order eliminates the debt of more than half of all student borrowers. Also, the government is finally ready to fix the broken Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. To people who worry that this is inflationary, Dick disagrees: the tuition money has already been spent. The root problem is that tuition is too high. One great solution is to attend community college first and earn a guaranteed transfer to a public four–year school. Loretta was very satisfied with this plan. We are baffled by the recent decline in community college enrollment.

Kissinger Speaks

Dick has upgraded to Foreign Affairs, The New York Times, The Economist and The Atlantic, but is disturbed by their enthusiasm to “win” the war and to give more, more–dangerous weapons to Ukraine. They have disparaged local plebiscites; Dick believes fair plebiscites would be democratic and unobjectionable. The possibility that Russia might resort to nuclear weapons seems to be taken as a bluff or as something we can just deal with, say by seizing their foreign currency reserves. This is crazy.

Dick’s friends tell him not to listen to Henry Kissinger because he’s a war criminal. But it’s Henry Kissinger, George Schultz, Sam Nunn, and William Perry who wrote a call to completely eliminate nuclear weapons and formed the Nuclear Threat Initiative. Now, at age 99, Kissinger advises us to make peace in Ukraine. He says, “We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to.” You go, Henry.

Plight of the Stateless

There is more than one way to become stateless, to have no nationality or citizenship: you might be unlucky enough to be Rohingya, or born in a failed state, or child of a guest worker. Everybody deserves a nationality. Stateless people should automatically qualify for refugee status!

We’re joining United Stateless to campaign so everyone can have citizenship. There might be thousands of stateless persons in the U.S. right now.

Open Source Intelligence Exposes Disinformation!

“According to Russian state media, Ukrainians are selling US weaponry on the dark web. But as the BBC reveals, the advertisements are fabricated and the weapons were actually photographed several years ago in Syria.” –Bellingcat newsletter

Recommendations

Visual Intelligence by Amy Herman urges us to look closely. Here’s a video of her talk at Google.

Fewer, Richer, Greener: Prospects for Humanity in an Age of Abundance, by Laurence B. Siegel describes a promising future (provided we don’t have a nuclear war).

Adrift, America in 100 Graphs, by Scott Galloway explores current trends.

Sous Vide Lamb Shanks from Costco; delicious with mint jelly!

Liberty jigsaw puzzles are laser–cut from wood; the pieces interlock, and many have whimsical shapes related to the picture on the puzzle. Besides schmaltzy typical puzzle pictures, they feature famous fine art paintings and Japanese woodblocks.

25% of 8 is the same as 8% of 25, but a lot easier to figure in your head. It’s always true: A x B = B x A

Don’t tell your kids about Alexa’s Extreme Farts Extension Pack. It costs $1.99, but vastly enlarges the free fart library. There’s also a Christmas Farts Extension Pack. You can leave future farts when you visit someone’s home, and you can send farts to your friends. Siri can make fart sounds, but only <specific kinds of> farts. Google and Tesla can, too. There’s a seven–tone fart symphony ringtone for your phone.

It’s nice to sit out in the back yard and calm down. A spider has made a thread 25 feet long; wow.

We are grateful for good health, leisure, and friends, and hope you will be safe, healthy and prosperous in the coming year!

☮ ☯ Peace & Love! We hope 2023 will be a year of peace, growth and fact–checking! 🇺🇳