Working Papers

• "Credit-Market Sentiment: Estimation and Macroeconomic Implications" (with G. Perez-Quiros, H. Sapriza, F. Vazquez-Grande and E. Zakrajšek)

• "Inflation Factors" (with V. Sheremirov, J. Tang and E. Zakrajšek )

• "Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect the Neutral Rate of Interest?" (with R. Sekkel and L. Uzeda)

R&R  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

• "Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle" (with C. Friedrich and P. Guerin)

R&R  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

• "Noisy Credit Cycles" (with E. Gerba and J. Pöschl )

R&R  International Journal of Central Banking

Publications

• "Do Inflation Expectations Improve Model-Based Inflation Forecasts?" (with M. Banbura and J. Menz)

 Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. Forthcoming

• "Underlying Inflation and Asymmetric Risks" (with H. Le Bihan and M. Pacce)

The Review of Economics and Statistics. Forthcoming

• "Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy" (with G. Perez-Quiros and E. Rots)

Journal of Applied Econometrics. 39(5), 813-832, Aug. 2024

• "The Credit-Card-Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates" (with W. A. Barnett, M. Chauvet, and L. Su)

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 56(5), 1163-1202, Aug. 2024

• "Inspecting Cross-Border Macro-Financial Mechanisms" (with E. Gerba and M. Rubio)

Journal of International Money and Finance. 145, 103094, Jul. 2024

• "Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions" (with C. Baumeister and E. Sims)

The Review of Economics and Statistics. 106(2), 483-504, Mar. 2024

• "Housing Prices in Spain: Convergence or Decoupling?" (with C. Ghirelli and A. Urtasun) 

SERIEs - Journal of the Spanish Economic Association. 14, 165-187, Apr. 2023

• "Latin American Falls and Rebounds since the COVID-19" (with L. Campos and S. Zapata)

Latin American Economic Review.  32, Nº 6, Mar. 2023

• "Endogenous Time-Variation in Vector Autoregressions" (with L. Uzeda).

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 105(1), 125-142, Jan. 2023

• "Heterogeneous Switching in FAVAR Models" (with P. Guerin)

Advances in Econometrics.  Essays in Honor of Fabio Canova. 44(B), 65-98, Sep. 2022

• "Exchange Rate Shocks and Inflation Comovement in the Euro Area" (with E. Ortega and J. Martinez-Martin)

International Journal of Central Banking.  18(1), 239-275, Mar. 2022

• "Fluctuations in Global Output Volatility" (with L. Ductor)

Journal of International Money and Finance. 120, 102533, Feb. 2022

• "Markov-Switching Three-Pass Regression Filter" (with  P. Guerin and M. Marcellino)

Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 38(2), 285-302, Apr. 2020

• "Mapping China’s Time-Varying House Price Landscape" (with M. Funke and A. Tsang)

Regional Science and Urban Economics, 78, 103464, Sep. 2019

• "The Propagation of Industrial Business Cycles" (with M. Camacho)

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 23(1), 144-177, Jan. 2019

• "Increasing linkages among European regions. The role of sectoral composition" (with M. Gadea-Rivas and A. Gomez-Loscos)

Economic Modelling, 80, 222-243, Jun. 2019

• "Measuring Business Cycles Intra-Synchronization in US: A Regime-Switching Interdependence Framework."

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 513-545, Aug. 2017

• "Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data" (with P. Guerin)

Economics Letters, 157, 45-49, Aug. 2017

• "Dynamics of Global Business Cycle Interdependence" (with L. Ductor)

Journal of International Economics, 102, 110-127, Sep. 2016

• "Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP with Structural Breaks" (with W. A. Barnett and M. Chauvet)

Journal of Econometrics, 191(2), 312-324, Apr. 2016

• "Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. A Dynamic Nonlinear Approach" (with M. Camacho and G. Perez-Quiros)

Advances in Econometrics, 35, 283-316, Dec. 2015

• "Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach."

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 18(5), 557-580, Dec. 2014

Policy Articles

• "Parsing Out the Sources of Inflation" (with V. Sheremirov, J. Tang and E. Zakrajsek )

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Current Policy Perspectives, Nº  25-5. Mar. 2025

• "Sentiment About Business Debt as a Leading Economic Indicator" (with T. Lubik, G. Perez-Quiros, N. Robino, H. Sapriza, F. Vazquez-Grande and E. Zakrajšek)

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Brief, Nº  25-09. Mar. 2025

• "The Spread of Inflation from Energy to Other Components" (with J. González Mínguez, Samuel Hurtado and A. Urtasun)

Economic Bulletin. Bank of Spain, Nº 2. Dec. 2022

• "Introducing the Credit Market Sentiment Index" (with G. Perez-Quiros, H. Sapriza, F. Vazquez-Grande and E. Zakrajšek)

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Brief, Nº  22-33. Aug. 2022

• "The Response of Private Investment to an Increase in Public Investment" (with M. Alloza and A. Urtasun)

Analytical Articles. Bank of Spain, 2-2022 Jun. 2022

• "Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting" (with ESCB Work Stream on Inflation Expectations)

Occasional Papers. European Central Bank, Nº 264. Sep. 2021

• "The Global Weakness Index – reading the economy’s vital signs during the COVID-19 crisis" (with G. Perez-Quiros and E. Rots)

Research Bulletin. European Central Bank, 72. 19 Jun. 2020

• "Real-time regional GDP forecasting: statistical aspects and a forecasting model" (with C. Artola, M. Gil, J. Perez, and A. Urtasun)

Analytical Articles. Bank of Spain, 2-2019. Jun. 2019

• "An application of dynamic factor models to nowcast regional economic activity in Spain" (with M. Gil, J. Perez, and A. Urtasun)

Occasional Papers. Bank of Spain, Nº 1904. Mar. 2019

• "Recent Movements in the Euro Exchange Rate and the Impact on Inflation in the Spanish Economy" (with J. Martinez-Martin and E. Ortega)

Analytical Articles. Bank of Spain, 4-2018. Oct. 2018

• "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs."

Occasional Papers. Bank of Spain, Nº 1706. Sep. 2017

• "US Monetary Spillovers to Latin America: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates" (with E. Albagli and D. Saravia)

Central Banking Series. Monetary Policy through Asset Markets. Central Bank of Chile. Vol. 34, Dec. 2016