NOTES: The Economic Weakness Index (EWI) is a summary measure of national business cycle dynamics constructed based on state-level recession probabilities obtained with a Markov-switching model that allows for heterogeneous recessions and expansions (see Baumeister, Leiva-León and Sims, 2021). The gray shaded areas indicate NBER recessions. The black dashed lines indicate the week of the announcement date of the peak month and the blue dotted lines indicate the week of the announcement date of the trough month.

NOTES: The dotted line is a 52-week-ahead forecast of the Economic Weakness Index (EWI) as of October 29, 2022. The red line is the historical EWI until February 2021 and since then end-of-month updates based on real-time estimates of state-level recession probabilities. The black dashed line indicates the week of the NBER announcement of the peak month of the COVID-19 recession and the blue dotted line indicates the week of the NBER announcement of the trough month of the COVID-19 recession.