Latin American Business Cycle Measurement

This webpage provides supplementary material associated with the paper "Latin American Falls, Rebounds and Tail Risks" by (Luciano Campos, Danilo Leiva-León and Steven Zapata) 

Note. The video shows the evolution of the probabilities of recession associated with different Latin American countries. Green (red) areas indicate low (high) probability of recession. The probabilities are compute by using a nonlinear dynamic factor model that allows for expansions and recessions of heterogeneous magnitudes.